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Dangote Cement: Subdued earnings outlook but valuations still attractive

Trading at FY 2020 EV/EBITDA of 7.0x compared to its EM peer average of 9.2x and its 5-year average of 7.7x, we believe the company’s valuation remains attractive.

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Dangote Cement reported a 3.8% y/y growth in Revenue to N249.2bn in Q1 2020. The growth in group revenue was solely driven by an improvement in revenue from its Nigerian operations (up 5.6% y/y to N179.3bn) amidst a flattish performance from Pan African operations (down 0.6% y/y to N69.8bn). We expect the impact of COVID-19 to have a more profound impact on Nigeria Sales in Q2-2020, given that Lagos, Ogun, and the FCT went on full lockdown from 30 March. Although the lockdown measures were relaxed on 4 May, economic activities are yet to return to pre-COVID-19 levels.

Similarly, we expect weaker Revenue from Pan African Operations driven by weakness in South Africa (poor macro conditions, lockdown in the last week of March amidst weak infrastructure spending by the government), Tanzania (production challenges and unfavorable weather conditions) and Zambia (the economy slipped into recession in Q1, leading to a decline in the cement market) to have a material impact on overall Pan African sales volumes. As such, we have made marginal adjustments to our forecasts.

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We retain our target price of N182.4/s and maintain our Buy recommendation largely due to attractive valuations. Trading at FY 2020 EV/EBITDA of 7.0x compared to its EM peer average of 9.2x and its 5-year average of 7.7x, we believe the company’s valuation remains attractive. We arrived at our target price using a blend of DCF valuation and relative valuation in the ratio 60:40. We also note that the company’s planned share buyback has been approved by SEC and management will review the opportunity to deploy the programme in due time. We believe this remains a catalyst for an upward re-pricing of its shares.

READ ALSO: Dangote Cement’s Q1 Result: Weak topline and higher OPEX drive weak earnings

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Review of Q1 2020 performance

Q1 2020 Revenue grew 3.8% y/y to N249.2bn. The growth in group revenue was solely driven by an improvement in revenue from its Nigerian operations (up 5.6% y/y to N179.3bn) amidst a flattish performance from Pan African operations (down 0.6% y/y to N69.8bn). On a q/q basis, we note that group revenue grew stronger, up 17.6% q/q, again on the back of a sturdy growth from Nigerian operations (up 26% q/q). We believe the growth in revenue from Nigerian operations reflects stronger demand for cement particularly in the months of January and February which more than compensated for the slowdown in March due to headwinds triggered by the outbreak of the global pandemic. Notably, cement sales volumes grew by 0.7% y/y to 4.0MT, the highest Q1 volume in the last four years. However, we note that the momentum in sales volumes has slowed down, following the lockdown implemented in states such as Lagos, Ogun, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

EBITDA grew 2.2% y/y to N114.2bn. The low single-digit growth in EBITDA was due to a higher increase in cost of sales adjusted for depreciation (up 6.3% y/y) compared to the growth in revenue (up 3.8% /y). The increase in cost of sales adjusted for depreciation was largely driven by growth in salaries and related staff costs (up 13% y/y) and other production expenses (N4.0bn in Q1 2020 vs N1.5bn in Q1 2019). However, the company reported a sub-inflationary growth in OPEX (up 4% y/y to N47.7bn). We highlight that expenditure on advertisement and promotion was up 96% y/y to N3.7bn- we believe this was due to the continued implementation of sales promotional activities to drive sales volume. Overall, EBITDA margin weakened marginally by 0.7ppts to 45.8% in Q1 2020.

READ MORE: Continental Reinsurance reports Q1 2020 results, affirms support towards COVID-19 pandemic

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Net Finance Cost dipped significantly, down 60.5% y/y t0 N3.7bn in Q1 2020, due to a decline in Finance Cost (down 23% y/y to N9.0bn) alongside foreign exchange gains of N3.7bn recorded in Q1 2020. However, Finance Income was down 32.6% y/y to N1.5bn, reflective of the decline in Cash and Bank Balances (down 41% y/y to N101.8bn) and a lower yield environment. We note that the decline in Finance Cost was due to the absence of Foreign exchange loss in Q1 2020 compared to N3.1bn recorded in Q1 2019.

Pre-tax Profit grew 11.5% y/y to N88.1bn in Q1 2020. A higher effective tax rate of 31% in Q1 2020 compared to 24% in Q1 2019 led to a flattish growth in Profit after tax, up 0.6% y/y to N60.6bn in Q1 2020. Earnings per share rose to N3.60/s in Q1 2020 from N3.54/s in Q1 2019.

Looking ahead, we expect the deterioration in the macroeconomic narrative of Nigeria, caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 and significantly lower oil prices to constrain activities in the construction industry as fiscal spending on capital projects weakens, on the back of lower oil revenue. In a similar fashion, we expect private sector investment in gross fixed capital formation to slow down as businesses cut down on their CAPEX plans given fragile macro conditions, which will weaken aggregate demand.

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READ ALSO: FAAC disburses N1.945 trillion in Q1 2020, highest Q1 allocation since 2014

Similarly, we expect weaker Revenue from Pan African Operations driven by weakness in South Africa (poor macro conditions, lockdown in the last week of March amidst weak infrastructure spending by the government), Tanzania (production challenges and unfavorable weather conditions) and Zambia (the economy slipped into recession in Q1, leading to a decline in the cement market) to have a material impact on overall Pan African sales volumes. Considering the 1.4% decline in Pan African Sales Volumes in Q1 2020, we have revised downwards our forecast on Pan-African volumes to 9.25MT (previously; 9.82MT) in 2020.

Valuation; BUY rating maintained

We retain our target price of N182.4/s and maintain our Buy recommendation largely due to attractive valuations. Trading at FY 2020e EV/EBITDA of 7.0x compared to its EM peer average of 9.2x and its 5-year average of 7.7x, we believe the company’s valuation remains attractive. Furthermore, we highlight that the proposed share buyback is a positive catalyst for upward re-pricing of the shares. We arrived at our target price using a blend of DCF valuation and Relative valuation in the ratio 60:40.


CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Lagos (CSLS) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. CSLS is a member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

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Patricia
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Stock Market

Royal Rumble at first trading week of Q3 2020, ASI down 1.99% WoW

Trading in the top three equities accounted for 275.099 million shares worth N2.818 billion in 3,497 deals.

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Nigerian Stock Exchange

The Nigerian stock market ended the week on a bearish note, as the All Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization both depreciated by 1.99% to close the week at 24,336.12 and N12.695 trillion respectively.

A total turnover of 961.833 million shares worth N9.181 billion in 20,058 deals were traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 739.375 million shares valued at N8.563 billion that exchanged hands last week in 17,248 deals.

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The Financial Services industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart, with 618.714 million shares valued at N4.338 billion traded in 9,669 deals, thus contributing 64.33% and 47.25% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

READ MORE: Nigerian stock market on a flawless bullish run, crude oil boost triggers rally

The Consumer Goods industry followed with 91.119 million shares worth N2.227 billion in 3,703 deals. In the third place was the Conglomerates industry, with a turnover of 60.640 million shares worth N62.779 million in 556 deals.

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Trading in the top three equities namely FBN Holdings Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, and United Bank for Africa Plc (measured by volume) accounted for 275.099 million shares worth N2.818 billion in 3,497 deals, contributing 28.60% and 30.69% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

13 equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than 18 equities in the previous week. 59 equities depreciated in price, higher than 43 equities in the previous week, while 91 equities remained unchanged, lower than 102 equities recorded in the previous week.

READ ALSO: 5 Consumer stocks you should consider for your portfolio 

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Top gainers

OKOMU OIL PALM PLC. up 20.94% to close at N77.40

ROYAL EXCHANGE PLC. up 13.04% to close at N0.26

PRESTIGE ASSURANCE PLC up 10.64% to close at N0.52

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NEIMETH INTERNATIONAL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC up 9.49% to close at N1.50

ACADEMY PRESS PLC. Up 0.30 0.02 to close at 6.67% N0.32

VITAFOAM NIG PLC. up 5.30 0.29 to close at 5.47% N5.59

REGENCY ASSURANCE PLC up 5.00% to close at N0.21

NESTLE NIGERIA PLC. up 4.73% to close at N1256.80

WAPIC INSURANCE PLC up 3.13% to close at N0.33

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NEM INSURANCE PLC up 2.50% to close at N2.05

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Top Losers

NIGERIAN AVIATION HANDLING COMPANY Plc. down 24.24% to close at N2.00

LEARN AFRICA Plc. down 21.48% to close at 1.06

UNILEVER NIGERIA Plc. down 18.82% to close at N13.80

GLAXO SMITHKLINE CONSUMER NIG. PLC. down to close at N4.95

UNION BANK NIG. Plc. down 15.08% 6.30 -0.95 -to close at N5.35

NASCON ALLIED INDUSTRIES PLC down 13.79% to close at N10.00

AIICO INSURANCE PLC. down 13.13% to close at N0.86

JAPAUL OIL & MARITIME SERVICES PLC down 12.00% to close at N0.22

STERLING BANK PLC. down 10.85% to close at N1.15

ARDOVA PLC down 10.73% to close at N11.65

Patricia
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Stock Market

Consumer goods index turns Nigerian Bourse bearish, amidst poor market liquidity 

All indexes closed in the negative terrain with the exception of the Banking Index.

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Nigerian stock market ended the week trading session on a bearish note, extending its previous day loss. The All-Share Index and Market Capitalization down by 0.16% to 24,336.12 points and N12.695billion respectively. Thus, YTD performance stands at -9.35%. 

Similarly, market turnover finished lower compared to the previous trading session. Total volume and value of stocks traded decreased by 19.88% and 17.59% to 144.31 million units and N1.52 billion respectively.  

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GUARANTY was the most traded stock by volume at 29.1million units, followed by ZENITHBANK, with 27.2 million units of trades. 

READ MORE: Okonjo-Iweala shares her plans for WTO, if appointed

Market sentiment, as measured by market breadth, was negative as 27 tickers declined, relative to 9 gainers.  

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REDSTAREX and UACN were the top losers of the day with 10.00% apiece price decline, while IKEJAHOTEL and WEMABANK topped the gainers with 9.68% and 5.77% appreciation in share value. 

Performance across sectors mirrored the broad index. All indexes closed in the negative terrain with the exception of the Banking Index, which gained 0.32%. The Consumer Goods Index (1.07%) was the biggest loser of the day due to losses recorded in UACN (-10.00%) and NB (-5.68%).  

The Insurance, Oil and Gas and Industrial Goods indexes trailed to shed 0.61%, 0.13% and 0.04% respectively, due to price depreciation in AIICO (-3.37%), ARDOVA (-1.27%) and WAPCO (-0.96%) 

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Top gainers 

IKEJAHOTEL up 9.68% to trade at N1.02,WEMABANK up 5.77% to trade at N0.55,ZENITHBANK up 3.04% to trade at N15.25,FCMB up 2.27% to trade at N1.8,GUARANTY up 0.48% to trade at N20.8 

READ ALSO: U.S dollar gains ground, U.S. President Trump boosts investors’ Optimism

 Top Losers 

UACN down 10.00% to close at N7.2 REDSTAREX down 10.00% to close at N2.97, JBERGER down 7.56% to close at N18.35NB down 5.68% to close at N34.05, NASCON down 1.96% to close at N10 

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 Outlook 

Sell-offs in UACN, JBERGER and NB dragged the Nigerian bourse down coupled with thin liquidity in the Nigerian Stock Market. Nairametrics envisages cautious buying of Nigerian stocks, as Institutional investors remain on the sidelines. 

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Top 10 stockbrokers trade a total of N597.4 billion in H1 2020 despite COVID-19 Pandemic 

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NSE, IFC to Host Virtual Seminar on the Impact of COVID-19 on Women in the Workplace

Despite the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the top ten stockbroking firms in Nigeria traded a total of N597.4 billion worth of shares between January and June 2020. 

The top ten stockbroking firms in Nigeria according to the Broker Performance Report released by the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), traded a total of N597.4 billion and a total volume of 39.6 billion units of shares over the period of January to June. 

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The report also revealed that the top ten stockbrokingfirmsaccountedfor 59.31of the total value of shares traded year to date and 47.22% of the total volume of shares traded on the NSE in the same period.  

READ MORE: Top 10 Stockbrokers trade N391.9 billion in Q1 2020 despite bearish market

Top 10 Stockbrokers by Value 

  • Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Ltd.Top on the list with the most value of stocks traded is Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Ltd with a value of N128.3 billion, accounting for 12.73% of the total value of shares traded during the period. 
  • EFG Hermes Nig. Ltd.Next on the list is EFG Hermes having transactions to the value of N118.5 billion, thereby representing 11.77% of the total value of shares traded.  
  • Rencap Securities Nigeria Ltd.: Rencap took the third spot with the value of its transactions to the tune of N82.2 billion, making an 8.16% contribution to the total value of shares traded over the course of the period. 
  • CSL Stockbrokers Ltd.: The total value of transactions made by CSL Stockbrokers stood at N63.5 billion and this accounted for 6.30% of the total value of shares traded in the period. 
  • Cardinal Stone Securities Ltd.: Cardinal Stone Securities transacted in shares valued at N50.5 billion as well, representing a 5.02% of the total traded shares during the period under review. 

READ MORE: NSE: Bears reign continues as ASI shed 4.91% on Tuesday

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Other stockbroking firms that made the top ten list include Chapel Hill Denham Securities (N34.2 billion), Tellimer Capital Limited (N33.5 billion), Cordros Securities (N31.4 billion), Meristem Stockbrokers Limited (N28.9 billion) and FBN Quest Securities Ltd (N26.2 billion.) 

 

Top 10 Stockbrokers by Volume of shares traded 

  • Cardinal Stone Securities Ltd.: Cardinal Stone came tops with trades of 6.2 billion units of shares which represents 7.37% of the total units traded in the first half of the year. 
  • EFG Hermes Nig. Ltd.Next on the list was EFG Hermes which traded 6.1 billion units of shares, thereby accounting for 7.28% of the total shares traded in the period under review. 
  • Morgan Capital securities Ltd.: Third on the ranking is Morgan Capital which traded 5.7 billion units of shares in the period from January to June 2020 and this came to a total contribution of 6.76%. 
  • Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Ltd.: Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers traded 4.7 billion units of shares over the course of the period and this contributed 5.57% to the overall volume of shares traded in the period. 
  • Rencap Securities Nigeria Ltd.: Rencap traded 4.5 billion units of shares to stand in the fifth position, accounting for 5.34% of the total volume of shares.  

 

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Other stockbrokers that made the list include: CSL Stockbrokers Ltd (3.9 billion units), Meristem Stockbrokers Ltd (2.9 billion units), Chapel Hill Denham Securities Ltd (1.9 billion units), Coronation Securities Ltd (1.8 billion units), and APEL Asset Ltd (1.8 billion units.) 

Patricia
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