The financial approach used by Nigeria’s oil companies against lower oil prices will affect their chances of making it through and negatively affect their financial lenders.
It is obvious that some of the most over-leveraged oil companies in Nigeria will not survive the current price collapse due to bad debts while other conservatively managed oil companies will start the process into restructuring their debts with their lenders if the current level of crude oil price is maintained for many weeks.
The financial health of energy companies based in Nigeria and their resolve to service their debts are extremely vital to the banking industry of Nigeria.
Oil companies accounted for about 30% of all banking-sector loans recorded in the third quarter of 2019, and their borrowing took about 24% of all non-performing loans in Nigeria.
Commercial banks in Nigeria with heavy exposure to Nigerian oil producers include Nigeria tier-one banks. The oil price plunging along with the devaluation of the naira has indirect effects on the Nigerian banking industry.
Princejoe Nnaji, a Management expert in a leading bank in Nigeria told Nairametrics in a phone chat that, “I don’t foresee global demand increasing significantly and project that crude oil prices will remain low throughout this 2nd Quarter putting Nigeria Banks at risk to oil company’s exposure once again. This would impact 3 key aspects:
“Just as the drop in crude oil prices is expected to breach the Nigerian government’s 2020 projected revenues, the commercial banks are not exempted from this effect because there will an extension of moratorium periods and loan repayments and a significant drop in new debt to oil companies as Nigerian banks seek to proactively prevent a 2015 oil crisis déjà vu. This would surely lead to a fall in the Interest and Non-Interest Income banks have projected to earn from oil companies.
“Slight Up-Tick In NPLs: While banks focus on negotiating with local oil companies to restructure their loans in line with current realities, it is expected that all banks will migrate a significant portion of oil companies exposure due within the next 12 months from Stage 1 to Stage 2. That should be based on the IFRS 9 requirement on expected credit loss because the probability of default variable has increased and the small companies would most likely default.
“I, however, don’t see it affecting banks the way it did in 2015, as banks have learnt from the past by reducing previously breached single obligor limits and improved the strength of collaterals to adequately cover loans.”
Downgrade by Rating Agencies:Nnaji explained that in 2020, credit ratings agency ‘Fitch’ has downgraded three Nigerian banks’ Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to ‘B’ from ‘B+’ and placed 10 Nigerian banks on a Negative watch.
He said, “Given the possibility that the quality of oil companies loan asset may deteriorate significantly depending on the duration of the pandemic and continued impact on oil prices, several banks aside the current top 3 profitable banks are going to be downgraded.”
Indigenous oil and gas companies are expected to struggle as oil prices continue to decline. It’s expected that a moratorium on debt repayments will be worked out between banks and oil-producing companies in Nigeria.
Price swings usually bring its own good moments for those who have refrained from excessive borrowing. The crude oil price slump creates opportunities for cash-rich oil businesses and oil companies with low leverage exposure in selecting excellent producing assets at a bargain.
However, naira devaluation may also provide some comfort for Nigerian banks as the financial results posted by some of them showed significant asset holdings in dollars, as they predicted naira devaluation would happen at some point. So they will most likely make some revaluations gains from the naira weakening against the dollar.
Meanwhile, Nairametrics had reported commercial banks in Nigeria are set to begin the recovery of N6.125 trillion borrowed by oil firms to braze themselves amidst the sector’s recapitalization fears.
The banks have reportedly issued correspondences to oil firms, marginal filed operators and downstream operators, as debts in the sector, according to a 2018 CBN financial stability report, showed that N1.235 trillion had been added to the sector’s debt profile since 2016 when it stood at N4.89 trillion.
Banks are beginning to takeover collateral tied to the loans, a management staff of one the marginal field oil firms reportedly said over the weekend, as banks followed up on the correspondence sent to his firm.
#EndSARS: Anyone found culpable in Lekki Toll Plaza shooting would be held accountable – Sanwo-Olu
Sanwo-Olu has continued to ensure Nigerians that those found culpable in the unfortunate Lekki shootings will not escape the law.
Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has said that the Lagos State Government would ensure that anyone found culpable in last Tuesday’s shooting at the Lekki Toll Plaza would be held accountable for their actions.
This was disclosed in a statement by the Lagos State Government, after the Governor’s interview with CNN’s Becky Anderson.
In the interview with CNN, the Governor said, “We will be committed to a full investigation of what happened and people would be held accountable. They certainly would be held accountable. We would do everything possible to ensure that they are held accountable.
“People have claimed that their friends and family members have been killed. So, this Judicial Panel of Enquiry is meant to bring all of these stories to accountability; where we can make restitution, where families can prove and identify officers that were responsible for this.
“I am not the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, I am Governor of a State. The report would be out and we would channel the report to all the relevant authorities in the state to ensure that every one that is found culpable is accountable for the act.”
He added that there was no international pressure on Nigerian leaders to investigate the Lekki incident, and he had met the #EndSARS protesters. He also acknowledged that the protests were legitimate.
“There are no international pressures whatsoever. These are genuine protesters that we all believe and we all have knowledge about. I was the first governor among governors, with due respect to all my other colleagues, who came out to meet with them, who started from the front. I carried the EndSARS flags with them. I met with them twice and we all had the rally together and worked together,” he said.
Sanwo-Olu also said that the investigations would be a catalyst for positive change of Governance, and he saw it as a wake-up call for those in power.
“I genuinely believe there would be a change for two reasons. One, what has happened, especially in Lagos is extremely unimaginable. Number two is that it was a clarion call for all of us in government, especially understanding and realizing what the youths truly want us to be doing. So, it hit all of us like a thunderbolt and it was just a wake-up call,” he said.
What you should know
Nairametrics reported last week that several social media accounts had revealed that peaceful protesters were allegedly being shot at by the military at the Lekki toll holdout. The Nigerian Army, however, denied deploying soldiers to attack #EndSARS protesters who assembled at the Lekki Toll Plaza.
The Lagos State Government ordered an investigation into the Lekki Toll Plaza shooting that was allegedly done by some men of the Nigerian Army on Tuesday evening. Babajide Sanwo-Olu had also stated that Lagos State would not burn on his watch, as he tried to calm things down after hoodlums wreaked havoc post-Lekki shootings, and announced that the Judicial panel set up by the state would include the incident at Lekki toll gate.
The Lekki incident has gotten the world’s attention, with the Governor and other members of government admitting that there were casualties as a result of the incident. The onus is on the Federal Government to ensure the recommendations of the state judicial panels are properly executed after they submit their reports.
#EndSARS: The deliberate shooting of unarmed protestors was an outrage – Archbishop of Canterbury
The Archbishop of Canterbury has once again condemned the deliberate shooting of unarmed protesters in Lekki, calling it an outrage.
The Archbishop of Canterbury and Head of the Anglican Church, Justin Welby, has said that the deliberate shooting of unarmed protesters in Lagos was an act of outrage, and he urged for a path to peace, justice and reconciliation.
The Archbishop disclosed this in a social media statement on Monday evening. He had earlier called on Nigerian leaders to “come together and agree a common vision that puts aside difference, steers the ship of state away from the rocks of conflict and sets a course that is for the good of all.”
The deliberate shooting of unarmed protestors in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria last week was an outrage. I say this as a human being, as a Christian, and as the leader of the worldwide Anglican Communion – which counts some 18 million Nigerians as part of our global family.
— Archbishop of Canterbury (@JustinWelby) October 26, 2020
What you should know
The Archbishop last week condemned the shooting of unarmed protesters in Lekki and urged President Muhammadu Buhari to ensure that lives were protected.
“I condemn in the strongest terms the reported deliberate shooting of unarmed protesters in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
“I have urged President Muhammadu Buhari directly to ensure that lives are protected – and I say that again now,” he said last week.
In yesterday’s statement, Mr. Welby said: “The deliberate shooting of unarmed protestors in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria last week was an outrage. I say this as a human being, as a Christian, and as the leader of the worldwide Anglican Communion – which counts some 18 million Nigerians as part of our global family.”
He warned of the violent past of Britain’s colonial history and urged that Nigeria learned from the UK’s past mistakes.
“But I also say this as a British citizen, knowing that in our recent colonial past the UK has committed appalling acts of violence.
“And while I absolutely have no place to lecture or rebuke Nigeria, a country that is very dear to my heart, I can say this: learn from our mistakes. Do not go further down the path of violence and injustice. Turn around and find the path of peace, justice and reconciliation,” he said.
He said that Nigerian leaders could become heroes if they sacrifice ambition and work to unite Nigeria in a time of trouble.
“No nation can be built without heroism. This is a time for all those who play a role in the political and civil leadership of Nigeria to be heroes for the common good. This is a time to sacrifice ambition, to set aside party, to unite to serve in order that Nigerians from richest to poorest may flourish,” the Archbishop concluded.
COVID-19 Update in Nigeria
On the 26th of October 2020, 119 new confirmed cases and 2 deaths were recorded in Nigeria
The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increases as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 62,111 confirmed cases.
On the 26th of October 2020, 119 new confirmed cases and 2 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 4,719 samples across the country.
To date, 62,111 cases have been confirmed, 57,571 cases have been discharged and 1,132 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 612,154 tests have been carried out as of October 26th, 2020 compared to 607,435 tests a day earlier.
COVID-19 Case Updates- 26th October 2020,
- Total Number of Cases – 62,111
- Total Number Discharged – 57,571
- Total Deaths – 1,1132
- Total Tests Carried out – 612,154
According to the NCDC, the 119 new cases were reported from 6 states- Lagos (77), FCT (26), Plateau (9), Edo (4), Oyo (2), Nasarawa (1).
Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 20,884, followed by Abuja (5,993), Plateau (3,603), Oyo (3,425), Rivers (2,773), Edo (2,652), Kaduna (2,617), Ogun (2,010), Delta (1,812), Kano (1,742), Ondo (1,666), Enugu (1,314), Kwara (1,067), Ebonyi (1,049), Katsina (952), Osun (923), Abia (898), Gombe (883). Borno (745), and Bauchi (710).
Imo State has recorded 614 cases, Benue (486), Nasarawa (479), Bayelsa (403), Ekiti (332), Jigawa (325), Akwa Ibom (295), Anambra (277), Niger (274), Adamawa (257), Sokoto (165), Taraba (140), Kebbi (93), Cross River (87), Yobe (82), Zamfara (79), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.
Lock Down and Curfew
In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.
The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.
On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.
On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.