Due to the unfortunate economic impacts that have been wrought by the Coronavirus pandemic, Fidelity Bank Plc said it has slashed its growth forecast for 2020.
Fidelity Bank’s Chief Operations and Information Officer, Gbolahan Joshua, disclosed that the company’s profit for the year is now expected to drop significantly by 15% to about N25.8 billion.
Recall that the mid-tier Nigerian bank had recorded a profit before income tax of N32.3 billion in 2019, according to an earlier report by Nairametrics.
More on this: Q1 2020 may likely be the worst for most companies including Fidelity Bank Plc. This is because it was during this period that the Coronavirus pandemic took the world by surprise and grounded the global economy to a halt.
Nigeria is still reeling from the negative health and economic impacts of the deadly virus. Earlier this week, the country’s Federal Government had to issue lockdown orders for some parts of the country, including Lagos.
Commenting on this, Joshua told Reuters via phone that Fidelity Bank Plc is optimistic that the second quarter of the year “is going to be soft after the disruptions associated Coronavirus”.
Note that Fidelity Bank Plc is now set to release its Q1 2020 unaudited result, after announcing a closed period yesterday.
Fidelity Bank’s Eurobond coupon: In a related development, Gbolahan Joshua disclosed that the sum of $21 million had been transferred to Citibank, the bond trustees, for the half-yearly coupon payment on Fidelity Bank’s $400 million 2022 Eurobond. The coupon is due in two weeks.
Joshua disclosed that the bond issue was yielding 16% interest as against just 5% in January. The increase in interest yield is due to the fact that most investors resorted to shedding their assets in emerging markets.
BREAKING: Nigeria’s GDP grows by 1.87% in Q1 2020, as non-oil sector weakens
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87%(year-on-year) in real terms, representing a drop of 0.23% points compared to Q1 2019 and 0.68% points decline compared to Q4 2019
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87%(year-on-year) in real terms. This is according to the first quarter (Q1) GDP report, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
The performance recorded in Q1 2020 represents a drop of 0.23% points compared to Q1 2019 and 0.68% points decline compared to Q4 2019, reflecting the earliest effects of the disruption, particularly on the non-oil economy. Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was –14.27% compared to 5.59% recorded in the preceding quarter.
The oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06% (year-on-year) in Q1 2020 indicating an increase of 6.51% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
New normal for the informal sector
Africa is the world’s last frontier in the fight against extreme poverty where one in three Africans−422 million people−live below the global poverty line.
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China has extremely changed the world, as it has turned into a major pandemic and affected millions of people around the world regardless of geographical location, age, race, gender, etc.
While this crisis is first and foremost a public health issue, which has claimed the lives of thousands of people worldwide and still counting, the economic fallouts will no doubt be overwhelming and will likely lead to major economic meltdowns; both in the formal and informal sectors.
According to Brookings Institute, Africa is the world’s last frontier in the fight against extreme poverty where one in three Africans−422 million people−live below the global poverty line. This fact brings to fore, the alarming consequences of COVID-19 in the economic sectors which will increase the income gap backward rather than reduce the number of people living below the global poverty line.
The informal sector arguably constitutes the largest employer of labor in Africa. The International Labour Organisation estimates that more than 66% of total employment in Sub-Saharan African is in the informal sector. With a pervasive informal sector, city governments have been struggling with how best to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, informal enterprises are typically characterized by low wages and non-exportable goods and services. This sector provides crucial livelihoods to the most vulnerable of the urban poor.
The spread of COVID 19 poses a big threat to small scale businesses which serve as a major source of livelihood for many Africans. It is important that, just as Africa is working towards combating the spread of the virus, the government should help to support this vital, yet often excluded segment of the economy.
The informal sector is very much essential for the welfare of the people living in the local communities and for the expansion of the economy at large. As Africa’s informal sector provides about 80% of employment and contributes over 50% GDP, it is reason enough to save this crucial sector from jeopardy.
Taking Nigeria to be the case study, the wave of the pandemic is showing no sign of reduction unless a permanent solution is found.
However, looking on the bright side, there is a possibility that a vaccine could be found sooner or later to counter this unpleasant enemy. But until then, how will we as a country adjust to the “new normal”, that is life after COVID-19, as the experts who used this terminology explained that life, as it was before, will not come back to normal for some time to come. Let’s take a few instances.
One major normal, which is of general importance with a massive impact on our livelihood, is the loss of jobs. Yes, our means of making ends meet have been threatened. Many people will be rendered jobless as all economic activities the world over, have slowed down.
Those who will be hit the hardest are, as already mentioned, small-scale businesses that may find it challenging to adapt to the new normal of doing business via virtual means, etc. The small-scale businesses are also employers of labor, so going down means their employees will suffer the same loss with them. Amongst the unemployed, the hardest hit is the daily wage workers whose livelihoods are based on their daily incomes.
Therefore, a lot of people will suffer unemployment in this time, and paying bills such as house rent bills, food bills, school bills will become near impossible.
Another new normal is that, classes and lessons will have to be done online, and this could be the pattern for some time to come. This will pose major challenges for parents who do not have the resources to acquire gadgets or even buy the data required for their wards/children to participate in online classes. This new normal is also applicable to post-secondary students, who have a higher need for gadgets and data to participate in online classes.
By this time in the old normal, schools would have begun a new term. Being the third term in which promotional exams are done, both parents and pupils will be up and doing to ensure preparations in order to secure promotions. Most especially those preparing to take examinations to secure admission into the universities.
The question posed here is, how can the government help in reducing the burden of both the parents and the students who are on lockdown right now and can’t make ends meet talk less of spending the little resources being managed this period to acquire required gadgets or even data? As we are all aware the data rate in our country is high, unlike in most countries where data is cheap or even free. Can the government help in reducing the data rates in order to reduce the burden on parents and students?
With the wave of the pandemic being on the rise, so many countries have moved away from multilateralism and have retreated into fending for themselves with several measures to protect their own people and economies, regardless of the effects on the rest of the world which has led to certain restrictions.
This restriction could also be the new normal, as we are left with the questions of what if? What if the COVID 19 pandemic continues in a second wave, with borders still shut, food importation restricted, what if we can no longer travel out for medical attention and must rely on our hospitals here? Talk less of education, what if we can no longer travel out to study abroad and must rely on our educational system here? We can no longer be dependent on the world for everything.
For a country of over 200 million people, we cannot continue to keep ignoring the dangers that lie ahead if we do not begin to depend largely on what we produce locally, because the security and well-being of our nation is solely based on building a productive and well-diversified economy.
We have no clear vision of what the world will look like after the pandemic is over, therefore as a nation, we need to seize the opportunities of the “new normal” and make the best out of them. As much as all these new developments seem troubling, it is a clear opportunity to work things out for a better future ahead.
We must look inwards as a nation and guarantee food security, high quality and affordable healthcare for all social classes, and pioneering education for our people. We can transform Nigeria into a modern, sophisticated and self-sufficient economy in which we don’t have to be dependent on other countries for everything and can thrive on our own, protecting the poor and vulnerable and being able to compete with other strategic sectors internationally.
To achieve this goal, what needs to be done include:
- Supporting both the smallholder and large-scale agriculture production.
- Creating a better educational system that will enable creativity and reasoning in order to prepare our children for the world tomorrow.
- Creating more factories, storages, and logistics companies which also serve as a way of creating job opportunities for the youths.
- Developing initiatives programmed to help support or promote youths who want to acquire skills and take them up as professions.
- Providing security for the poor and vulnerable, and developing the policies that bring financial services to them.
- Developing a standard and trusted health care system to keep Nigerians healthy irrespective of social class.
- Creating easy access to cheap and long-term credit for SMEs and large corporates.
- Creating a reliable power supply that can engender industrial activities.
- Developing venture capitalists for nurturing new ideas and propagate Nigerian businesses to compete globally.
This is the opportunity to create a better Nigeria and do the needful to become a better country.
COVID-19 may have thrown us all into a crisis of unprecedented proportions but we can still make the best out of it. However, mismanagement of the challenges could leave us to suffer untold hardships for some time to come.
Written by Abraham John Onojaa
Oil price gains likely to halt over demand uncertainty, as US-China tension intensifies
The rising tension between the US and China is weighing on the global markets. For political reasons, the leadership of each country is blaming the other for the coronavirus pandemic.
Crude oil prices, which have been on a steady increase for 3 consecutive weeks, seem to be coming to an end primarily due to the rising tension between the United States and China, and caution over the prospect for a global recovery in oil demand.
This is compounded by the disclosure of the world’s second-largest economy, China, that it is uncertain about its GDP growth target for 2020 because of the coronavirus outbreak.
The Brent crude, now $34.60 per barrel, sold for $36.41 about 4 days ago. The American WTI, which sells for $32.84 per barrel, sold for almost $34 per barrel a few days ago. Also, the Bonny light crude, selling for $33.01 per barrel, sold for $34.46 per barrel about 4 days ago.
With China’s oil demand climbing back to about 13 million barrels per day, which is about 90% of the pre-pandemic level, oil traders are holding out hopes of a quick rebound elsewhere with the global easing of lockdown.
The output cut by OPEC+ and top oil-producing countries and more than 2.2 million barrels per day production shut in by U.S, have meant that the supply side of the equation is doing just fine.
However, the rising tension between the US and China is weighing on the global markets. For political reasons, the leadership of each country is blaming the other for the coronavirus pandemic. The Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, warned that the US leaders were potentially pushing towards a new cold war, which is having a negative impact on investors.
Although the US crude inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels last week, the gasoline stocks actually increased.
According to Commerzbank, “After weeks of rising, US gasoline demand was down again for the first time. Demand for oil products also remains subdued elsewhere. With concerns on the demand side remaining we regard the latest price rally on the oil market to be excessive.”
Despite assurances from the Trump administration’s officials, a V-shaped recovery is extremely unlikely.
There also appears to be a belief that the US and other countries will not avoid the second wave of infections after reopening the economy.
According to Rystad Energy, “A second wave is not such a remote possibility and a new round of lockdowns could send oil prices back to much lower levels very quickly and the markets know it. Therefore, lower prices this morning are not a surprise and they are not necessarily the result of a market event, they are rather a correction of the consecutive boosts that oil has seen over the last days.”
The data firm still believes that oil prices will stabilize at the $30-$35 range with the potential to be $40 later in the year, if and when demand improves and approaches the pre-covid-19 levels.