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Currencies

Ghana’s Cedi becomes investors’ delight ahead Nigeria’s Naira  

Ghana has been considered top on foreign investors list this year despite the slowing economy the country has had in recent times. 

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Africa: Ghanaian inflation rate drops for the 3rd straight month to 10.1%, Ghana’s cedi becomes investors’ best choice ahead Nigeria’s naira, Ghana restricts flights into country after detecting Coronavirus but Nigeria ignores measure

Ahead of Nigeria, Ghana has been considered top on foreign investors’ list so far in 2020. The nation, which was described as one with slowing economy, creeping inflation, and a declining currency in fourth quarter 2019, has turned investors’ delight just six weeks in the new year.

The narrative has reportedly changed as the country’s currency, Cedi is currently the best-performing currency in the world. To Bloomberg reports, investors are rushing to buy into its $3 billion Eurobond issue and in fact, those who did not want to spend due to Ghana’s slow economy last year, are now the ones moving for fiscal prudence and financial reforms.

Ghana’s cedi becomes investors’ best choice ahead Nigeria’s naira  

According to strategists, Jason Daw and Phoenix Kalen, the Ghanaian cedi bonds were highly recommendable.

“We have been too cautious on Ghana, It has been the best-performing major market in Africa in the past two months, attributable to greater fiscal discipline, commitment to reforms, and improved currency management.”

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Ghana’s Eurobond yield was said to have sold five times the amount on offer two weeks ago. At the first local-currency bond sale of the year on January 16, foreign investors bought more than 80% of the 1.4 billion cedis ($258.3 million) of securities, compared with average holdings of 37% over the past two years.

[READ MORE: CBN to commence recycling of mutilated naira notes)

This is all as a result of the reforms Ghana underwent three years ago. Some of the reforms include outlawing large deficits, an aggressive banking-sector overhaul that cut the number of lenders by a third to 23, lowering liquidity and credit risks, among others.

Also, the West African country’s central bank has been effective in lowering inflation, which has been in single digits for two years even after an uptick in November. The regulator also started foreign-exchange forwards auctions in October to support the currency.

Why this matters: Just like they say, hard work pays off, the reforms can be seen in Ghana’s performance of its assets. Yields on existing Eurobonds have dropped to record lows, and the cedi has gained 6.6% since the beginning of January, well ahead of the 2.4% advance for the second-best currency, the Egyptian pound. That’s wiped out more than half of last year’s 13% slump.

Meanwhile, while cedi is thriving, the naira is clearly struggling to meet up with expectations as the Central Bank of Nigeria recently launched a five-year long-dated FX Futures. The development was aimed to reduce potential FX exposures, encourage long-term planning and increase investments in the Nigerian financial markets.

With this new contract, the CBN plans to attract more foreign inflows, shore up dwindling dollar reserves and reduce rising pressure on the naira. At a time where experts have called for the devaluation of the naira, the CBN has basically bought time for the currency in the face of mounting pressure on its stability to the dollar.

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Chidinma holds a degree in Mass communication from Caleb University Lagos and a Masters in view in Public Relations. She strongly believes in self development which has made her volunteer with an NGO on girl child development. She loves writing, reading and travelling. You may contact her via - [email protected]

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. richard nwaigbo

    April 2, 2020 at 2:51 am

    Comment:hi plz call me on phone OK.

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Business

CBN appoints 3 Pre-Shipment Inspection and 2 Monitoring Agents for non-oil exports

The CBN has announced the appointment of 3 PIAs and 2 Monitoring/Evaluation Agents for non-oil exports.

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Q1 2020, AfCFTA, African Continental Free Trade Area, Africa Free Trade Agreement, Business new, Nairametrics news

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced the appointment of 3 Pre-Shipment Inspection Agents (PIAs) for non-oil exports with effect from January 15, 2021.

The apex bank in addition, also announced the appointment of Monitoring and Evaluation Agents (MEAs) to oversee the activities of the PIAs in their respective zones of operations.

This disclosure is contained in a circular that was issued by the CBN on January 26, 2021, and signed by its Director for Trade and Exchange Department, Dr. O. S. Nnaji.

The CBN in the circular said that the Pre-Shipment Inspection Agents are;

  • Angila International Limited with the responsibility to cover North West and North Central Zones,
  • Neroli Technologies Limited to cover South West and South-South,
  • Gojopal Nigeria Limited has the responsibility to cover the South East and North East.

Similarly, the newly appointed Monitoring and Evaluation Agents are;

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  • Foops Integrated Services Limited with the responsibility to cover North East, North West and North Central,
  • Ace Global Depository whose areas of coverage include South East, South West, and South-South.

The apex bank in the circular directed all authorized dealers, operators in the non-oil export sector, and members of the general public to take note and ensure compliance.

What you should know

  • It can be recalled that in a revised policy, the Federal Government had said that all non-oil exports from Nigeria shall be subject to inspection by Pre-Shipment Inspection Agents appointed for that purpose by the government.
  • The focus of the PIAs shall be to ascertain the quality, quantity, and price competitiveness of exports from Nigeria and shall collaborate with other regulatory agencies like NAFDAC, SON, Plant and Animal Quarantine, Federal Produce Inspectorate, and so on, for quality inspection of regulated products.

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Currencies

Naira falls to N480/$1 at black market as CBN recognizes forex pressures is weakening the economy

The exchange rate at the black market where forex traded unofficially depreciated at N480/$1 on Tuesday, January 26, 2021.

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Dollar, Exchange rate, FOREX, NAFEX market turnover drop by 59%, Naira crashes to N470/$1 as currency uncertainty worsens 

On January 26, 2021, the exchange rate at the black market where forex traded unofficially depreciated at N480/$1. The exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N477/$1 on the previous trading day of January 22, 2021, representing a N3 drop.

Why Naira is depreciating

  • This can be attributed to demand pressure in the foreign exchange market as economic activities resumed in earnest following the end of the Christmas and New year holidays.
  • Forex dealers also inform Nairametrics that an increase in demand from Nigerians looking to send their wards back to school abroad has also piled pressure on the demand for the greenback.
  • A cross-section of importers have also resumed import activities piling pressure on the black market to meet their forex demands.

READ: Nigeria’s foreign debt has breached a 15-year trigger

To streamline supply and ensure there is enough to meet rising demand, the CBN moved to ensure strict monetary control of the forex market threatening to expel exporters who refuse to remit foreign exchange proceeds in the NAFEX market. It also warned against paying diaspora remittances in naira. 

The CBN may have also confirmed the forex pressures businesses are facing in its monetary policy communique of January 26, 2020 when it cited it as a reason for the weak purchasing managers index.

“This weak performance was attributed to the resurgence of the pandemic, foreign exchange pressures, increased costs of production, general increase in prices and decline in economic activities.”

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READ: Non-oil sector is critical to Nigeria’s economic recovery in 2021 – Cordros Capital

Trading at the official NAFEX window

The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Tuesday, closing at N394/$1. This represents a 50 kobo gain when compared to the N394.50/$1 that it closed on the previous trading day.

  • The opening indicative rate was N393.60 to a dollar on Tuesday, representing a 30 kobo drop when compared with the N393.30 to a dollar that was recorded on Monday, January 25, 2021.
  • The N396 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N394 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N390/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window rose significantly by 170.9% on Tuesday, January 26, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover increased from $39.99 million on Monday, January 25, 2021, to $108.34 million on Tuesday, January 26, 2021.

READ: Why you should be worried about the latest drop in external reserves

Oil price steady rise

Brent crude oil price rose to about $55.87 on Wednesday morning as US crude stockpiles decrease by about 5.2 million barrels last week. A higher crude oil draw (a decrease in crude oil inventory) is attributed to higher refining activities in the world’s largest economy.

  • Oil prices have been dragging since last week after the IEA released a report that slashed its outlook for oil in 2021.
  • According to the IEA, “Global oil demand is expected to recover by 5.5 mb/d to 96.6 mb/d in 2021, following an unprecedented collapse of 8.8 mb/d in 2020. For now, a resurgence in Covid-19 cases is slowing the rebound, but a widespread vaccination effort and an acceleration in economic activity is expected to spur stronger growth in the second half of the year.
  • “After falling by a record 6.6 mb/d in 2020, world oil supply is set to rise by over 1 mb/d this year, with OPEC+ adding more than those outside the bloc. There may be scope for higher growth given our expectations for further improvement in demand in 2H21. After holding flat at 92.8 mb/d in December, global supply is rising this month with OPEC+ due to ramp up during January.
  • Nigeria needs oil prices to stay above $50 to balance its budget and improve on its 2021 revenue projection of  N6.6 trillion for the year.
  • Nigeria’s 2021 budget includes a target crude oil benchmark price of $40/barrel and crude oil production of 1.86 million barrels per day.
  • Nigeria has a production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day but is subject to OPEC’s crude oil production cuts, which are expected to help sustain higher oil prices.
  • The higher oil prices and steady production output have positively impacted Nigeria’s external reserves, rising sharply to $36.304 million according to central bank data dated January 14, 2020.
  • This is the highest level since July 2020 and a sign that higher oil prices and steady output levels may be contributing significantly to Nigeria’s foreign exchange position.

READ: Naira falls across forex markets as CBN moves against IMTOs

Higher oil prices drive up Nigeria’s external reserves

  • The external reserve has risen to $36.508 billion as of January 21, 2021.
  • Nairametrics had earlier reported that the government may have taken receipt of the $1-1.5 billion World Bank loan. However, excerpts of the CBN Monetary Policy communique of January 26th suggest the inflows may have been driven by higher oil revenues.
  • According to the CBN, “On the external reserves position, the Committee noted the increase in the level of external reserves, which stood at US$36.23 billion as at 21st January, 2021 compared with US$34.94 billion at the end of November 2020. This reflected improvements in crude oil prices, partial global economic recovery amid optimism over the discovery and distributions of COVID-19 vaccines by most developed economies.”
  • The external reserves have increased by $1.135 billion since December 31, 2020, when it closed the year at $35.3 billion.
  • Nigeria also needs the external reserves to hit $40 billion if it is to adequately meet some of the pent up demand that has piled up since 2020 when oil prices crashed and the pandemic caused major economic lockdowns.

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Currencies

Naira falls at NAFEX window as dollar supply continues to decline

The exchange rate between the naira and the dollar depreciated closing at N394.50/$1 at the NAFEX Window.

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Central Bank of Nigeria, Foreign exchange market, Naira vs dollas, IMF, Foreign Reserves, External reserves, CBN, Why do we all love the dollar? 

On January 25, 2021, the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar depreciated closing at N394.50/$1 at the NAFEX (I&E Window) where forex is traded officially.

Forex turnover, however, dropped further by about 10.2% as pressure on the foreign exchange market continues.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has moved to create more liquidity in the foreign exchange market as they insisted that deposit money banks and International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) must pay diaspora remittances to beneficiaries in dollars as against the initial practice of paying in naira.

This will also help to create more stability and transparency in the forex market.

Also, the exchange rate at the black market where forex traded unofficially remained stable at N477/$1. The exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N477/$1 on the previous trading day of January 22, 2021.

Specta

The exchange rate disparity between the parallel market and the official market is about N82.50, representing a 20.9% devaluation differential.

The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Monday, closing at N394.50/$1. This represents a 33 kobo drop when compared to the N394.17/$1 that it closed on the previous trading day.

  • The opening indicative rate was N393.30 to a dollar on Monday, this represents a 15 kobo drop when compared with the N393.15 to a dollar that was recorded on Friday, January 22, 2021.
  • The N395 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N394.50 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N390/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window dropped by 10.2% on Monday, January 25, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover declined from $44.51 million on Friday, January 22, 2021, to $39.99 million on Monday, January 25, 2021.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • There are fears that the exchange rate at the black market might be under pressure in the coming weeks as importers scramble for dollars to meet their demands.

Oil price steady rise

Brent crude oil price is at about $55.60 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, as it moves towards the $60 mark, a strong sign that global demand could sustain price increases in 2021.

  • This appears as a boost to Nigeria as the country’s crude oil price benchmark for 2020 was $40 while it projected an oil production output of 1.8 million barrels per day.
  • Nigeria has a production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day but is subject to OPEC’s crude oil production cuts, which are expected to help sustain higher oil prices.
  • The higher oil prices and steady production output have positively impacted Nigeria’s external reserves, rising sharply to $36.304 million according to central bank data dated January 14, 2020.
  • This is the highest level since July 2020 and a sign that higher oil prices and steady output levels may be contributing significantly to Nigeria’s foreign exchange position.

Nigeria rising external reserves

  • The external reserve has risen to $36.508 billion as of January 21, 2021.
  • Nairametrics had earlier reported that the government may have taken receipt of the $1-1.5 billion World Bank loan.
  • The external reserves have increased by $1.135 billion since December 31, 2020, when it closed the year at $35.3 billion.
  • Nigeria also needs the external reserves to hit $40 billion if it is to adequately meet some of the pent up demand that has piled up since 2020 when oil prices crashed and the pandemic caused major economic lockdowns.

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