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United Capital reveals what may happen to exchange rate in 2020
United Capital has disclosed that the CBN may harmonize the multiple exchange rate systems currently operated in the country.
United Capital, a financial and Investment Services Company, has disclosed that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may harmonise the multiple exchange rate systems operating currently in the country.
This is contained in the report recently released by the firm on Nigeria’s economic outlook in 2020. The firm stated that the CBN will continue to introduce several measures to stabilize the naira as devaluation concerns grow.
No devaluation, but CBN may harmonise Exchange Rate
According to United Capital, despite the growing concern about an impending devaluation of the naira, a currency devaluation in Nigeria is unlikely in 2020. Meanwhile, the firm stated that the CBN is likely to harmonize both official exchange rate/interbank (N305.5/$1) and the rate operational at the Investors & Exporters (I&E) windows (N360/$1).
It stated, “In our opinion, while a currency devaluation is unlikely in the immediate-term, there is a possibility for the harmonization of the official rate from N305.5/$1 to something very close to the I&E window rate of N360.0/$1, in the medium term. Hence, the adjustment may not really affect the market rate by more than a spread of 2% to 5% to the official rate“
The firm, also stated that the CBN will continue to support the naira at N360-N365/$1 levels, by selling OMO bills to Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) as a strategy to preserve the reserves at decent levels.
Meanwhile, the debate regarding Nigeria’s exchange rate system remains inconclusive, as the CBN continues to reiterate that the country does not run a multiple exchange rate system.
The World Bank recently stated that the growth of the Nigerian economy in 2020 is expected to remain subdued due to the macroeconomic framework characterised by multiple exchange rates, foreign exchange restrictions and high persistent inflation.
CBN to sustain OMO policy to build buffer
While forecasting the flows of capital in Nigeria in 2020, United Capital stated that CBN is likely to sustain its OMO sale to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in support of the country’s reserves. According to the firm, this may keep FPIs interest dominant in money market funds at the expense of equity flows.
“On capital flows, no significant change is expected in the current dynamics. More specifically, the CBN is likely to sustain its OMO sale to FPIs in support of the reserves. This may keep FPIs interest dominant in money market funds at the expense of equity flows.
“Notably, we expect an upsurge in Loans & Other Claims to continue, given the low interest rate environment in the international debt market. However, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow may remain broadly muted.”
Capital market in 2020
On the other hand, investors in the capital market face tepid year. According to the firm, in 2020, the capital market is expected to be a different playing field. United Capital stated that the fixed income market will be a corporate/ private issuer market due to the buoyant level liquidity and the low yield environment.
The firm also disclosed that yields on FGN T-bills are projected to stay in the mid-to-high single-digit levels and Bonds yields at low double-digit levels, especially in H1-20. Hence, interest in riskier assets (mostly corporate papers) will increase.
“The rate on OMO bills (solely for FPIs and Banks) are unlikely to witness significant changes, as the CBN continues to deploy its set of unconventional policy tools to attract FPIs and limit an impending dollar outflow in Q1-20 while preserving the stock of reserves above the $30.0 billion threshold. Overall, we expect the sovereign yield curve to remain normal in H1-20. However, this may reverse to a hump-shaped curve from Q3-20.
“For equities, the continued auction of high yield OMO bills to FPIs may keep foreign interest in local equity market tepid amid fears of a naira devaluation and confidence deficit in the economy.”
In all, from all indications, United Capital is optimistic that the only justification for an uptick in the equity market is the lower yield environment, supported by increased local currency liquidity. “However, this will not be enough to trigger a major rally in the absence of the demand from FPIs,” it added.
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Ecobank: Pan African challenges weigh in on the company’s results
The group, through its Nigerian subsidiary, continued to take a hit resulting from its 2011 acquisition of Oceanic Bank.
ETI recently published its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December, 2020.
Year-on-Year, revenues were up 4 percent to USD1,679.8 million while operating profits before impairment losses were also up 14 percent to USD625.7 million. Net interest income also increased by 21 percent on the back of a 27 percent decrease in interest expense, while customer deposits increased by 13 percent to USD18.3 billion.
However, apart from these, not so much else was great about the results. For example, profit before tax and goodwill impairment was down 17 percent to USD337.88 million, while profit for the year was down 68 percent year-on-year to USD88.32 million.
ETI faced several headwinds during the year that ultimately contributed to the performance. The group, through its Nigerian subsidiary, continued to take a hit resulting from its 2011 acquisition of Oceanic Bank. The effect on the profit after tax in 2020 was a USD163.56 million impairment charge in FY 2020.
In addition, a USD61million monetary loss was charged to the group’s profit resulting from the hyperinflationary economies of Zimbabwe and South Sudan where it operates. According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, Zimbabwe’s annual inflation eased to 348.59 percent in December 2020, compared with 401.66 percent in the previous month. To put this in perspective, South Sudan’s inflation rate on the other hand was estimated at approximately 58 percent at the end of 2020.
Perhaps further exacerbating the not-so-good results, the group effectively incurred a significant tax rate of 52.25 percent in 2020 compared to 33.3 percent for the same period by December 2019. A combination of these events caused a year-on-year decline in profit after tax by 57 percent, to USD174.32 million at the end of 2020 (2019: USD405.8 million).
The tough operating environment brought about by the global pandemic also impacted the results. While loan and advances and impairment charges were relatively flat in 2020, a significant portion of its loan book received regulatory forbearance, which meant that customer repayments of loan principals were deferred by up to 12 months.
Also, the group’s NPL ratio remained higher than the regulatory NPL limit while Ecobank Nigeria’s NPL was higher than the Group’s NPL ratio. The write-offs arising due to goodwill impairment in Ecobank Nigeria as well as hyperinflation in Ecobank operations in Zimbabwe and South Sudan affected the group’s regulatory capital ratios.
Although the group remained compliant with the minimum regulatory capital adequacy ratio requirements, its Tier 1 Capital Adequacy Ratio declined from 8.8 percent FY2019 to 8.5 percent FY2020 while Total Capital Adequacy Ratio also declined from 11.6 percent FY2019 to 11.5 percent FY2020. The minimum capital requirements were 7.25 percent Tier 1 and 9.5 percent, Total Capital, respectively.
In January 2021, Ecobank Nigeria raised N50 billion in subordinated debt from Development Bank of Nigeria with a 10-year tenor at 6.5 percent. It also in February 2021 raised USD 300 million in form of a 5-year, fixed-rate, US dollar-denominated bond. These amounts will improve the Nigerian subsidiary’s capital adequacy ratio.
ETI groups its African operations into four geographical regions. The reportable operating segments are Nigeria, Francophone West Africa (UEMOA), Anglophone West Africa (AWA), and Central, Eastern and Southern Africa (CESA). Unlike other Nigerian Deposit Money Banks with International presence that outperform their African and international subsidiaries, the reverse appears to be the case with Ecobank Nigeria within ETI. Among the four geographical regions, Ecobank Nigeria contributed the least to the operating income, operating profit, as well as profit before tax in FY2019 and FY2020. Reported RoE were also 26.9 percent, 18.6 percent, 16.1 percent and 4.2 percent in the AWA, UEMOA, CESA and Nigeria regions in 2020 (against 30.1 percent, 22.8 percent, 23.6 percent and 0.4 percent in 2019 respectively).
ETI’s overall performance depends on whether the results are reviewed from a Naira or Dollar perspective as some of the results were better in Naira than when reported in Dollars. The group lost about USD8.6 million as a result of exchange differences on foreign currency translation of foreign operations. ETI perhaps also seems to be affected by the poor performance of some of its acquisitions as well as its operations in some African countries where it has its presence.
Its earnings per share as of December 31, 2020 was 0.010 (cents) as against 0.778 (cents) for the same period in 2019.
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Analysis: Sterling Bank, foreign exchange to the rescue
The bank’s foreign exchange trading income includes gains and losses from spot and forward contracts and other currency derivatives.
Sterling Bank Plc recently published its audited Annual Report, and Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2020. While the results indicated an underperformance based on expectations and compared to the prior year, the outcome was not totally unexpected given that the bank faced severe headwinds from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, while commenting on the results, the bank’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Abubakar Suleiman, had explained that 2020 was an extraordinary year, defined by the global pandemic, which disrupted the society and severely impacted economic activities.
Gross earnings fell by 7.5 percent to N138. 9 billion (compared to N150.2 billion in 2019). The bank’s Interest income also dropped by almost 12.5 percent from N127.29 billion in 2019 to N111.45 billion in 2020. This drop is mostly attributable to a drop in interest income from loans and advances to customers, which dropped to N82.88 billion in 2020 compared to N97.89 billion for the same period in 2019. The bank’s net fees, and commission also reduced to N13.1 billion in 2021 compared to N14.61 in 2020 as Other fees and commission (mostly advisory fees) fell to N2.9 billion in 2020 (2019: N5.9 billion) while the bank’s e-business commission and fees reduced to N4.98 billion (2019: N6.79).
The bank reported that total non-performing loans (NPL) as a percentage of gross loans improved from 2.2 percent in 2019 to 1.9 percent in 2020. While this appears to be good, a closer look at the bank’s loan portfolio shows a somewhat different picture. First, loans and advances to corporate entities reduced in 2020 (corporate entities N570.88 billion and individuals N42.48 billion) compared to 2019 (corporate entities: N582.94 and individuals N48.76 billion), yet impairment allowance on loans to corporate entities and individuals increased in 2020 (N14.11 billion and N2.42 billion respectively) compared to 2019 (N11.12 billion and N1.85 billion respectively). Secondly, the bank’s credit loss expense (made up of impairment on loans and write-offs) also increased by 36 percent to N7.91 billion from N5.84 billion in 2019, thus raising the bank’s cost of risk by 10 basis points to 1 percent.
Also, during the year, the bank sold off N19.5 billion of its loans and advances portfolio to Cambridge Springs Investment Limited, hence further explaining the significant drop in its total loans and advances portfolio from N618 billion at the end of 2019 to N596 billion by the end of 2020. It is worth noting that as at the end of 2020, the bank was yet to receive consideration for the loans and advances sold to Cambridge Springs Investments Limited worth N19.5 billion as this amount appears as a receivable in the bank’s financial statement (other assets) and explains why its accounts receivable increased from N18.62 billion as at end of 2019 to N39.33 billion by the end of 2020.
Although well within regulatory limits of 30 percent, the bank’s liquidity ratio deteriorated from 39.2 percent at the end of 2019 to 33.87 percent by the end of 2020. The reduction in its total loans and advances portfolio while the total deposit liability improved explains the reduction in the loan-to-deposit ratio of 62.36 percent (2019: 65.29 percent).
It was not all bad news as the bank did very well in several areas. First, as already implied, total deposits increased by 7.5 percent to N972.12 billion at the end of 2020 compared to N892.66 billion at the end of 2019. You will also recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria directed in 2020 to all banks to reduce interest rate payable on savings deposits from a previous minimum of 30 percent of MPR to a new minimum of 10 percent of MPR, effectively reducing interest rates payable on savings account deposits from 3.75 percent to 1.25 percent per annum. During the year, it appeared that one of Sterling Bank’s strategy was to significantly reduce its interest expense, as its interest expense improved by 21.3 percent from N62.59 billion in 2019 to N49. 31 billion at the end of 2020 driven by a 39.5 percent year-on-year growth in low-cost customer deposits.
Note that the bank also increased its savings account portion of total deposit liability from 13.55 percent as at the end of 2019 to 20.5 percent by the end of 2020. The bank also significantly increased the ratio of Current and Savings Account to Total Deposit to 78.95 percent compared to 62 percent in 2019. Compared to term or fixed deposits, savings and current accounts offer the least interest to depositors. This positively and significantly impacted the bank’s cost of funds and ensured that the cost-to-income ratio declined year-on-year to 77.4 percent.
The bank did extremely well in its trading activities as its net trading income more than doubled to N11.72 billion (2019: N5.06 billion). This performance is attributable to a more than doubling of income from trading in bonds (2020: N5.07 billion; 2019: N2.53) and income foreign exchange trading (2020: N 3 billion; 2019: N415 million). Note that the bank’s foreign exchange trading income includes gains and losses from spot and forward contracts and other currency derivatives. Despite the pandemic and the other parameters earlier described, the bank was able to post N11.24 billion profit after income tax for financial year 2020 compared to N10.6 billion recorded in 2019 a 6 percent growth in profit after taxes.
There was also a significant increase in the bank’s effective tax rate or Income tax expense from less than 1 percent at the end of 2019 to over 9 percent by the end of 2020. This increase impacted its Profit after income tax which would have been much higher than the N11.24 billion reported if the same effective tax rate of 2019 had been maintained for 2020.
