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Treasury Bill Investment: Ghana Vs Nigeria

Treasury bills are a form of IOUs issued by the governments of various countries aimed at monetary regulations and budgetary financing.

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Nigerian money markets

As has been the pattern, I received an email from someone who said she had fallen in love with my articles, thankfully, not with me, and she asked if she should invest in Nigerian or Ghanaian Treasury Bills. I was like, what an audacious question!

One thing, good or bad, that technology has brought on us, through the internet, is that the World has become a global village. Now it is possible to send money from one part of the globe to the other in minutes, video calls with skype or WhatsApp and others are prevalent and instant. It is now easy to see things in real-time in faraway countries. With internet trading platforms, it is now easy to stay in one country and trade the shares and other financial products of another country, within limits of regulatory permissions. It is this “ease of doing business” on the internet that has prompted that reader to ask if it is more profitable to invest in Nigerian Government Treasury Bills or that of Ghana.

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What are Treasury Bills?

Treasury bills are a form of IOUs issued by the governments of various countries aimed at monetary regulations and budgetary financing, among others. A lot of factors go into play in determining treasury bill rates, including the prevailing trend in yield curve, the financial or economic stability and creditworthiness of the issuing country, rate of inflation, political stability, among a long list of factors. Treasury bills come in terms of 91-day, 182 day and 364-day terms (corresponding basically to 3-month, 6-month and 1-year). Depending on trends in interest rate in relation to maturity dates, otherwise called yield curves, longer-term treasury bills are usually expected to have higher interest rates.

Treasury Bill Investment: Ghana Vs Nigeria

Ghana Vs Nigeria Treasury Bills rates

Between Ghana and Nigeria, Treasury bill rates differ. A 91-day Treasury bill in Ghana pays 14.685% while the same pays 9.5% in Nigeria. Likewise, a 182-day and 364-day treasury bills pay 15.14% and 17.91% respectively in Ghana but in Nigeria, they attract an interest rate of 10.45% and 11.5% respectively.

GTBank 728 x 90

What does this mean?

What the above numbers mean is that looking at it purely from the interest rate point of view, Ghanaian Treasury Bills look more attractive than Nigeria’s, but that is not all that go into the decision-making process.

[READ MORE: Official: Nigerian Treasury bills calendar for September – November 2019]

Exchange rate and purchasing power parity

In Ghana, the medium of economic exchange is the Cedi while it is the Naira in Nigeria, therefore, to buy Ghana’s Treasury Bill, you will need the Ghanaian Cedi and when the Treasury Bill matures, you will need to reconvert the resulting Cedi into Naira for repatriation. There is therefore an element of interest rate risk involved in such cross-border investment because if the exchange rate moves against you, the gains from the interest rate differentials could be lost through exchange rate effects.

Political risk

Political risk is another risk that one may factor into the decision equation. Political risk is the risk that a change in government may result in a change in policies that may either make it difficult to repatriate the proceeds of your investment or affect your investment adversely. There are other risks in cross border investment like legal and sovereign risks. While legal risk is the risk of loss caused by an unexpected application of law or regulation, sovereign risk is the risk of possible restriction of assets imposed by a government.

Do the Math

Having looked at some of the issues or risks that may affect cross border investments, let us do the math and see how it pawns out. Assuming that you have Ten million Naira that you intend to invest in either Treasury Bills in Nigeria or Ghana, at the prevailing interest rates on various treasury bills. At the current Cedi/Naira exchange rate of one Cedi to N67.08, ten million Naira translates into 149,075 Cedi.

By investing N10 million in a 364-Day Treasury Bill in Nigeria, you will receive interest or return of N1,150,000 (at the rate of 11.5% Per annum) after approximately one year. In the same way, by investing C149,075, (which is the equivalent of N10 million) into a 364-day Ghana Treasury Bill, you will get a return of C26,692, (at a rate of 17.9051% per annum) which translates to N1,790,510 at an exchange rate of C1 to N67. Since Treasury Bills are issued at a discount, you need to invest N8,850,000 to receive N10 million at the end of 364 days in Nigerian Treasury Bill while you need to invest, C122,384 in Ghana Treasury Bill to receive C149,075.73 at the end of 364 days. If the exchange rate between the Cedi and the Naira remains relatively the same over the 364-day period, the C26,692 received from Ghana Treasury Bill which translates to N1,790,510, makes the Ghana 364-day treasury bill N640,510 more profitable on a N10 million investment.

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Investment objectives

People have different objectives for investing. While so invest as a patriotic duty in their countries treasury bills others invest across borders in search of more return. Your investment objective should be your guide here.

[READ ALSO: Nigerian Treasury Bills: Learn everything about Tbills]

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Treasury Bill Investment: Ghana Vs Nigeria

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No arbitrage opportunity, after all

In international trade and finance, there is what is called the law of one price. That law states that in an efficient market with free flow of goods and services, a commodity should have one price regardless of what country it is purchased from. If this law does not hold, then the situation will present an arbitrage opportunity, where the commodity can be bought in the country with low price country and sold in a high price country. Given what has been uncovered with respect to Ghana and Nigeria Treasury bills, one may ask if it would be profitable to borrow money in Nigeria and invest same in Ghana treasury bills, repay the loan with interest, at maturity and pocket the difference. That would have been an easy way to benefit from the arbitrage opportunity, but unfortunately, the additional return is about 6.4% on a 364-day T-bill, a rate that is far below the lending rate in Nigeria. Therefore, the high lending rate makes the arbitrage opportunity nonexistent.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article should be construed to be a piece of investment advice, the author is not an investment adviser and whoever makes an investment decision based on this article does so at his or her own risk, without any liability on the part of the author.

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Uchenna Ndimele is the President of Quantitative Financial Analytics Ltd. MutualfundsAfrica.com and mutualfundsnigeria.com (both Quantitative Financial Analytics company website) is a leader in supplying mutual fund information, analysis, and commentary on African mutual funds. We provide reliable fund data; and ratings information that will add value to fund managers, the media, individual investors and investment clubs.

12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Chinelo Ugwu

    November 15, 2019 at 11:18 am

    Hmmm…quite interesting.

  2. Anonymous

    November 15, 2019 at 4:01 pm

    Nice article Uche but I was waiting for you to also bring up the fact that exchange rate risk in Ghana is higher than in Nigeria for now and for the past two years, given that the cedi has been depreciating to the dollar and the naira (it is more of a floating currency than the naira, which is managed). With the rate of depreciation, the return on the Ghana TB is probably less.

  3. Carrington

    November 15, 2019 at 4:17 pm

    Nice article Uche but I was waiting for you to also bring up the fact that exchange rate risk in Ghana is higher than in Nigeria for now and for the past two years, given that the cedi has been depreciating to the dollar and the naira (it is more of a floating currency than the naira, which is managed). With the rate of depreciation, the return on the Ghana TB is probably less.

    • Uchey Ndimele

      November 16, 2019 at 2:56 am

      Thanks for your very truthful comment. I was going to connect the exchange rate risk when I talked about purchasing power parity but did not have enough to conduct a credible time dependent regression analysis to judge the fluidity or trend of the Cedi. Such exchange rate risk can be managed by going with short dated Treasuries although those attract less interest. Good comment though and that is why we are here, to exchange ideas and information. keep them coming

  4. Ayotunde

    November 15, 2019 at 4:46 pm

    This is highly interesting, this is what younger generation should know about for a better future.. I’ll like to know sir, what will now happen to the real capital one invested in the TB after the term ended?

    • Tom

      November 16, 2019 at 12:59 pm

      Read the article again bro, I think I saw he mentioned the fund are given at a discount.

    • Anonymous

      November 16, 2019 at 3:23 pm

      @Ayo,
      Interest is always paid up front. That means when you invest in tb, your interest will be paid the day you invest while your capital will be paid at maturity.

  5. Jude Aneke

    November 15, 2019 at 8:07 pm

    Please what’s the present TB interest rate in Nigeria?

  6. IBRAHIM OLAGOKE RAJI

    November 15, 2019 at 10:55 pm

    Good job, Uche. However, I am at a loss about how you concluded that the 6.4% differential must be more than the lending rate to exploit the arbitrage opportunity.

    The Interest Rate on the Treasury bill itself is a risk-free lending rate, which implies that big players like Banks can borrow at that rate plus some few bps spread and then reinvest the borrowed funds in Ghana.

    If exchange rate risk is sufficiently hedged, there may truly be an arbitrage in there, leaving us with political, credit, legal and sovereign risks.

    The calculation may be worth looking at deeply.

    On second thought though, the market is sort, if there was an arbitrage, it would have been exploited.

  7. IBRAHIM OLAGOKE RAJI

    November 15, 2019 at 10:56 pm

    ***the market is smart..

  8. Anonymous

    November 16, 2019 at 10:45 am

    Interesting read, however, you didn’t highlight the recent CBN circular on participants of Open Market Operation in Nigeria today.

    The Treasury Bills market has moved

  9. Ajayi Gabriel

    November 16, 2019 at 11:41 am

    Nice one,we need more mobilization in any other sector apart from financial house. Thanks.

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market exchange rate – ₦486/$1

The US dollar stands at ₦486/US$1 in the parallel market

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Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar as of Friday, August 7th 2020 stands at 486/US$1 in the parallel market. The exchange rate closed at 486/US$1 on Thursday 6th August 2020.

  • Naira:486
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: August 7th, 2020

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling stands at  ₦585/₤1 on Friday 7th August same as recorded on Thursday 6th August 2020.

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  • Naira: ₦585
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: August 7th, 2020

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro stands at ₦550/€1 on Friday 7th August 2020. The exchange rate also closed at ₦550/€1 on Thursday 6th August 2020.

  • Naira: ₦550
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: August 7th, 2020

Activity: USD currently seels for an average of 486/US$1 in the parallel market

GTBank 728 x 90

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
8/7/2020Dollar475486
8/7/2020Pounds578585
8/7/2020Euro536550
8/6/2020Dollar470480475486Low
8/6/2020Pounds575587578585Low
8/6/2020Euro534545536550Low
8/5/2020Dollar465475473483Low
8/5/2020Pounds570580575587Low
8/5/2020Euro525540532545Low
8/4/2020Dollar470480470480Low
8/4/2020Pounds560570560570Low
8/4/2020Euro520530520530Low
8/3/2020Dollar470480470480Low
8/3/2020Pounds560570560570Low
8/3/2020Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
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7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
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7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
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7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
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7/14/2020Pounds540550557570Low
7/14/2020Euro485495489498Low
7/13/2020Dollar450460448462Low
7/13/2020Pounds540550540550Low
7/13/2020Euro485495485495Low
7/10/2020Dollar453460458465Low
7/10/2020Pounds520525550555High
7/10/2020Euro465467510520High
7/9/2020Dollar455461455463Low
7/9/2020Pounds550558550562Low
7/9/2020Euro495504498505Low
7/8/2020Dollar455461455461Low
7/8/2020Pounds550558550558Low
7/8/2020Euro495504495504Low
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7/1/2020Dollar455462455462Low
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6/30/2020Dollar452460452460Low
6/30/2020Pounds547560547560Low
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6/23/2020Dollar450460445455Low
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6/16/2020Euro475485475490Low
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6/12/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/12/2020Pounds538550538550Low
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6/8/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/8/2020Euro475485475485Low
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6/5/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/5/2020Euro460472460472Low
6/4/2020Pounds530543530543Low
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5/26/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/25/2020Pounds535545535545Low
5/25/2020Dollar440450440450Low
5/25/2020Euro460472460472Low
5/22/2020Pounds530543530543Low
5/22/2020Dollar440447440447Low
5/22/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/21/2020Pounds530545530545Low
5/21/2020Dollar450460450460Low
5/21/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/20/2020Pounds530550530550Low
5/20/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/20/2020Euro450470450470Low
5/19/2020Pounds528540528540Low
5/19/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/19/2020Euro450465450465Low
5/18/2020Pounds528540528540Low
5/18/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/18/2020Euro450465450465Low
5/15/2020Pounds530540525535Low
5/15/2020Dollar435450440455Low
5/15/2020Euro450460450465Low
5/14/2020Pounds530540530540Low
5/14/2020Dollar435450435450Low
5/14/2020Euro450460450460Low
5/13/2020Pounds525535525535Low
5/13/2020Dollar430450430450Low
5/13/2020Euro440455440455Low
5/12/2020Pounds525535525535Low
5/12/2020Dollar435450435450Low
5/12/2020Euro445455445455Low
5/11/2020Pounds510530525535Low
5/11/2020Dollar430445435445Low
5/11/2020Euro440450445455Low
5/8/2020Pounds510530510530Low
5/8/2020Dollar425437430445Low
5/8/2020Euro425440440450Low
5/7/2020Pounds510530510530Low
5/7/2020Dollar425437425437Low
5/7/2020Euro425440425440Low
5/6/2020Pounds510520510520Low
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5/6/2020Euro430450430450Low
5/5/2020Pounds510525510525Low
5/5/2020Dollar410430420430Low
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5/4/2020Pounds500510510525Low
5/4/2020Dollar435450410430Low
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5/1/2020Pounds500510500510Low
5/1/2020Dollar435450435450Low
5/1/2020Euro430445430445Low
4/30/2020Pounds500510500510Low
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4/30/2020Euro430445430445Low
4/29/2020Pounds500520500520Low
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4/29/2020Euro450465450465Low
4/28/2020Pounds495510500520Low
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4/27/2020Euro435450435450Low
4/24/2020Pounds490500490500Low
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4/15/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/15/2020Euro425435425435Low
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28/05/2019Euro400403400403Low
27/05/2019Pounds470474470474Low
27/05/2019Dollar358360358360Low
27/05/2019Euro400403400404Low
24/05/2019Pounds470474470474Low
24/05/2019Dollar358360358360Low
24/05/2019Euro400405400405Low
23/05/2019Pounds470474472475Low
23/05/2019Dollar358360358360Low
23/05/2019Euro400405400405Low
22/05/2019Pounds472475472475Low
22/05/2019Dollar358350358360Low
22/05/2019Euro400405400405Low
21/05/2019Pounds472475472473Low
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20/05/2019Pounds472475472475Low
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17/05/2019Pounds472475472475Low
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17/05/2019Euro400405400404Low
16/05/2019Pounds472475472475Low
16/05/2019Dollar358360358360Low
16/05/2018Euro400404400404Low
15/05/2019Pounds470475470475Low
15/05/2019Dollar358360358360Low
15/05/2019Euro400404400404Low
13/05/2019Pounds470475470475Low
13/05/2019Dollar358360358360Low
13/05/2019Euro400404400405Low
10/5/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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29/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
29/04/2019Dollar358360358360Low
29/04/2019Euro400405400405Low
26/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
26/04/2019Dollar358360358360Low
26/04/2019Euro400405400405Low
25/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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25/04/2019Euro400405400405Low
24/04/2019Pounds470475472476Low
24/04/2019Dollar358360358360Low
24/04/2019Euro400405400405Low
23/04/2019Pounds474478472476Low
23/04/2019Dollar355360358360Low
23/04/2019Euro390402400405Low
22/04/2019Pounds472476472476Low
22/04/2019Dollar357360358360Low
22/04/2019Euro400405400405Low
19/04/2019Pounds467471470475Low
19/04/2019Dollar355360357360Low
19/04/2019Euro395400402406Low
18/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
18/04/2019Dollar357360357360Low
18/04/2019Euro402406402406Low
17/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
17/04/2019Dollar357360357360Low
17/04/2019Euro402406402406Low
16/04/2019Pounds465470470475Low
16/04/2019Dollar360365357360Low
16/04/2019Euro400405402405Low

Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Exchange rate gains big at NAFEX as forex turnover pops 916%

Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters  window recorded a massive increase on Thursday

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FOREX, NAFEX market turnover drop by 59%, Naira crashes to N470/$1 as currency uncertainty worsens 

Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window appreciated significantly to N385.50 during intraday trading on Thursday, August 6, 2020. In another development, the exchange rate at the parallel market remained unchanged on Thursday as it closed at N474/$1 after exchanging as high as N486/$1.

Market Watch

Parallel Market: At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained unchanged against the dollar for a second consecutive day to close at N474/$1 on Thursday, according to information from Abokifx, a prominent FX tracking website. This was the same rate that it exchanged on Wednesday, August 5. However, in sharp contrast, Nairametrics forex tracker obtained a price as high as N486/$1 from some traders suggesting market volatility still persist.

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READ MORE: Manufacturing sector in Nigeria and the reality of a “new normal”

NAFEX: The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Thursday, closing at N385.50/$1.

  • This represents an impressive N3.75 gain when compared to the N389.25 rate close that was reported on the last trading day, Wednesday, August 5.
  • The opening indicative rate was N386.88 to a dollar on Thursday. This represents a 91 kobo gain when compared to the N387.79 to a dollar that was recorded on Wednesday.
  • The Naira fell to as high as N393.05 during intraday trading before strengthening to the closed rate of N389. It also sold for as low as N383.75/$1 during intraday trading.

Forex is sold at several prices and at different times during the day.

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READ ALSO: How the Coronavirus has impacted Forex trading

Forex Turnover: Meanwhile, forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window recorded a massive increase on Thursday, August 6, 2020, as it rose by 916.77% day on day.

  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover increased from $10.49 million on Wednesday, August 5, 2020, to $106.66 million on Thursday, August 6, 2020.
  • The forex turnover for the day is the highest daily volume recorded in about 3 weeks. The dollar supply which had remained weak improved significantly during the day’s trading.
  • The average forex sale for last week was a low volume of about $32 million which is a slight improvement on the $27 million that was recorded the previous week. FX turnover which topped the $100 million mark after weeks of very low volume, still falls short of the over $200 million turnover that was recorded in January.
  • Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of July was $937 million compared to $875 million in June.
  • The exchange rate disparity between the official NAFEX rate and the black-market rate widened further on Thursday staying as wide as N88.5. Nigeria maintains multiple exchange rates comprising the CBN official rate, the BDC rates, SMIS, and the NAFEX (I&E window).

Exchange rate unification remains on the cards and yet to be implemented weeks after the central bank governor confirmed it will be executed.

READ ALSO: MTN Nigeria, IHS ditch CBN rate for NAFEX in revised tower agreement

COVID-19 Pressures

Nigeria’s airspace remains closed to commercial international flight operations and won’t be open till October 2020. Foreign travel has often been a source of demand for the greenback.

  • The recent demand for dollars at the parallel market is thought to be fueled by speculators.
  • The parallel market also caters to forex trades through wire transfers especially for buyers who cannot fulfil their dollar demands at the I&E window or the SMIS window.
  • The exchange rate for wired transfer is often at a premium to the black market rate.

Forex Challenges: Last few weeks have been most challenging for the foreign exchange market as it witnessed very low liquidity. The downward slide against the greenback and some other major currencies continued this week due to tightened liquidity in the system.

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  • According to a report from FSDH research, forex inflows into the I&E window had dropped significantly in the second quarter of 2020 on the back of lower foreign portfolio inflows.
  • Although there was a slight improvement in the month of July, the turnover of $937 million is a far cry from the $3.19 billion, $5.02 billion and $3.7 billion turnover that was recorded in the months of January, February and March respectively before the lockdown which was triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • The low oil prices have constrained the CBN’s capacity to intervene further in the foreign exchange market as dollar inflow still remains very low.

The exchange rate has faced significant pressure in both the NAFEX window and the black market. The pressure stemmed from declining external reserves and falling oil price

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Nigeria’s top 10 agricultural exports hit N289.3 billion, as Sesamum seeds, Cocoa top list

Here is the breakdown of Nigeria’s top agricultural exports and top destination countries.

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Agricultural financing, Top AgriTech deals currently on sale in Nigeria – June 2020

Nigeria’s top 10 agricultural export is estimated to have earned the country about N289.3 billion in one year (April 2019 – March 2020). This is according to data collected from various foreign trade reports, as compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

A cursory look at the data showed that Sesamum seeds and Cocoa remain Nigeria’s biggest agricultural exports, with the two products jointly accounting for over 60% of the entire agricultural exports in the country.

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READ MORE: UPDATED: Nigeria’s foreign trade drops to N8.3 trillion, down by 18% in Q1 2020

Number Breakdown: Top ten Agricultural Exports in Nigeria

By operational definition, the NBS defined agricultural products as goods that come from the planting of crops and/or raring of animals. Here is the breakdown of Nigeria’s top agricultural exports and top destination countries.

  • Sesamum seeds: Sesamum seeds, the tiny, oil-rich seeds, have been Nigeria’s agricultural export biggest earner for some years. During the period under review, Nigeria made the sum of N112.8 billion from the export of the products and this accounted for 38.9% of the top 10 agricultural products. Top destinations for the product include Japan, China, Turkey, India, and Vietnam.
  • Cocoa Beans: Cocoa (Fermented, superior quality raw cocoa) exports is Nigeria’s second largest agricultural export. During the period under review, cocoa export was estimated to be N109.6 billion, accounting for 37.8% of the top agricultural exports. The top destinations for the product are Germany, Netherlands, Spain. Indonesia, Belgium, Malaysia, and Estonia.
  • Cashew nuts (In shell and shelled): Cashew nuts are Nigeria’s 3rd biggest agricultural export product. In one year (March 2019 – March 2020), Nigeria generated a total sum of N38.2 billion from cashew nuts export. The top destinations are Vietnam, India, USA, Russia and the Netherlands.
  • Frozen shrimps and prawns: Ranking 4th on the list, Frozen shrimps and prawns accounted for 3.4% of the biggest export in Nigeria, estimated to be N9.85 billion in the last one year. According to the breakdown, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Vietnam, and the USA are top destinations for the export of the products.
  • Natural cocoa butter: Natural cocoa butter ranks as Nigeria’s 5th biggest agricultural export product within the period. Nigeria generated the sum of N7.69 billion as revenue proceed from the export of cocoa butter. Germany and Estonia are top destinations for the product
  • Sesame oil and its fractions: Sesame oil, an edible vegetable oil derived from sesame seeds, ranks 6th on the list with an estimated export value of N3.1 billion
  • Other agricultural products on the top 10 list include Cotton, Agro-food items, Other cut flowers & flower buds of kind suitable ornamental purposes and Ginger. During the period, a total sum of N2.53 billion was generated from Cotton export, Agro-food items (N1.97 billion), Cut flowers and flower buds (1.96 billion) and Ginger (N1.43 billion).

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s oil crisis compounded as India’s fuel demand crashes by 60% 

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Upshots: Nigeria’s Agric. export may experience the biggest contraction in 2020

As at the end of Q1 2020, Nigeria’s total foreign trade was estimated at N8.3 trillion, an 18% decline when compared to N10.12 trillion recorded in Q4 2019. The decline in foreign trade showed the earliest sign of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic that led to disruption in cross border trade.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s trade balance hits recession low, records N579 billion deficit in Q4 2019

Despite the gradual easing of lockdown in major economies, restrictions imposed on cross border movements still subsist and this may demand for the goods and commodity prices in the short to medium term.

On the flip side, Nigeria’s cocoa-industry association recently cut its output estimate for the 2020 main crop by 18%, citing the spread of the fungal black pod disease caused by heavy rains in the country’s main growing areas.

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