A few days ago here at the office, some Nairametrics staff members were reminiscing about some of the popular Nigerian products they grew up loving as kids. Today, most of these products and the companies that manufactured them are no more. They’ve all closed shop, and the sad reasons for this will sadden you even more as you read through this article. This is because meaningful solutions have not been put in place to forestall more liquidations in the future.
The context: Happy Independence Day Nigeria?
Today marks Nigeria’s 59th year anniversary since becoming an independent country, following more than a century of colonial rule by Great Britain. While it is a tradition to always celebrate October 1st, the truth remains that there really isn’t much to rejoice about after all. From the business point of view, for instance, Nairametrics can confirm that many of the companies that that existed in Nigeria prior to 1960 have collapsed. This is nothing to be happy about.
Delisted and liquidated companies
Established in 1960, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has grown to become one of the top five biggest exchanges on the African continent. However, the bourse has witnessed a considerable number of delisting over the years. Information obtained from the NSE website has shown that about 109 Nigerian companies were delisted between 2002 and August 2019 alone.
Some examples of such companies are…
Note that even though some of these delisted companies are still in operation today as privately-owned entities, a significant number of them have ended up shutting down. Take the case of UTC Nigeria Plc for instance, for many years, the Swiss-owned company, which was established in 1932, thrived and diversified into different sectors. It was a perfect example of an excelling Nigerian company until several factors and policies affected its profitability and eventually chased away its core investors. In 2014, the company was overtaken by its creditors, then on May 2nd 2017, it was forced to delist from the NSE.
Albarka Airline Plc is another delisted Nigerian company that no longer exists today. The airline, which was incorporated in 1999, offered local flight services. Unfortunately, the company faced financial troubles and was unable to recapitalise in line with the Federal Government’s directive. Failure to recapitalise meant that it was grounded from flying in the Nigerian airspace. It was subsequently delisted from the Nigerian Stock Exchange in 2011.
Nigeria Textile Mills Plc voluntarily delisted from the Nigerian Stock Exchange in 2008. The company is one of the many textile companies in Nigeria that have experienced operational difficulties over the years due to unconducive business environment. Even a N100 billion fund set aside by the government to revive the textile industry could not help to ameliorate the situation.
Many banks collapsed between 1994 and 2006
To buttress how truly sad the situation is, the number of collapsed Nigerian banks between 1994 and 2006 stood at 45. According to the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), these banks’ licences were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria after a Federal High Court issued winding up orders for them. The NDIC was then appointed as the liquidator of the banks. Most notable among these 45 banks are:
- ABC Merchant Bank Ltd which was wound up on January 16, 1998
- Lobi Bank of Nig. Ltd also closed down on January 16, 1998
- Mercantile Bank of Nig. Plc, January 16, 1998
- Liberty Bank Plc, January 16, 2006
- Rims Merchant Bank Ltd, December 22, 2000, etc.
Why did these companies shut down?
A number of factors were responsible for these companies’ collapse, including unfavourable government policies and difficult operating environment. Other factors such as limited access to funding and lack of basic infrastructure like roads and electricity, also added to the problem by increasing these company’s operational costs, thereby hampering their growth potentials and profitability. It should also be noted that some of these companies collapsed due to poor management.
Urgent actions needed
There is no gainsaying the fact that it has become more necessary than ever before for the Nigerian Government to fix the country’s economic problems. To begin with, the country’s decayed infrastructure must be fixed. Most specifically, the electricity challenge must be resolved once and for all. Many companies in the country expend a lot of money generating their own electricity — a situation that should never be the case.
Lastly, Nigerian regulators should continually improve on their regulatory functions, in order to checkmate cases of corporate governance lapses before they get out of hand.
These are the only ways to ensure that fifty-nine years from now, we will not be referring to our presently-existing companies as “delisted and liquidated” Nigerian companies.
Guinness Nigeria Plc jostles to improve from its insipid 2020 financial year
In the 2021 financial year, the task before the company is to drive its strategic objectives to bring the company back to profitability.
Guinness Nigeria Plc has started its 2021 financial year with a loss, just like the company did in 2020. However, this time, the value of the loss adds up to N841 million for the opening quarter. In 2020, it was N370 million, which set the tone for what eventually degenerated into a truly horrible and uninspiring financial year. A year that saw loss position in the aggregate 12 months period peak at N12.6billion.
Apparently, all that could possibly go wrong with Guinness, did go wrong. From what in retrospect, turned out to be an over-ambitious outlook at the start of the year, to the effects of not giving immense attention to controllable costs, rise in inflation with its resultant pressure in decreased consumer spending, and the crippling effects of the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic; no company could have asked for worse.
However, the horrendous performance was not peculiar to Guinness Nigeria alone. The results from its competitors, such as the International Breweries Plc, and Nigerian Breweries Plc, amid appalling industry figures recorded, proved that 2020 has been a tumultuous year indeed for all companies operating in the brewery manufacturing sector.
The analysis of FY 2020
How poor was the 2020 FY performance of Guinness Nigeria and what can be inferred from its Q1 2021 reports? For a company in the habit of declaring dividends especially after the N5.5billion profit in 2019, how did the company move from that profit margin to a loss of N12.6billion just 12months after?
- Profit declined by 129.1% from N5.5billion Profit after Tax in 2019 to N12.6billion Loss after Tax in 2020. This Steep decline was evident in all arrears from top-line to bottom.
- Gross profit down by 16.9% to N33.33billion in 2020 as against N40.13billion reported in 2019
- Revenue plunged 21% to N104.41billion in 2020, from N131.5billion generated in 2019.
- Cost of sales did show some improvement, moving from the N91.4billion expended in 2019 to N71.1billion in 2020 – a 22% decrease.
- Administrative cost continued the rising trajectory to N14.3billion in 2020 from N9.9billion in 2019.
- Finance cost rose to N4.5billion from N2.6billion in 2019, while finance income declined from N750.9million to N301million in 2020.
Speaking on 2020 results, Mr. Baker Magunda, Managing Director/CEO, Guinness Nigeria Plc said,
“The last quarter performance of fiscal 2020 was significantly impacted by restrictions due to COVID-19, exacerbating the already challenging economic environment. Closures of on-trade premises (bars, lounges, clubs, and dine-in restaurants), which represents the major part of the consumption occasion for our products and bans on celebratory occasions, impacted sales.
“Demand was also impacted by reduced consumer income, unemployment concerns due to the shutdown of a large number of businesses, and increases of VAT and excise throughout the year.”
Magunda further explained that, “Distribution was impacted by the ban of inter-state, and in some cases intra-state travel. Although, Management worked diligently with regulatory authorities to minimize the impact, this hampered our distributors’ ability to restock and have our brands available for purchase.”
The analysis of Q1 2021
In the 2021 financial year, the task before the company is to drive its strategic objectives to bring the company back to profitability. The Chairman, Mr Babatunde Abayomi Savage, recognizes that this would be no stroll in the park, as he affirmed that despite predictions that the coming year will be challenging globally due to the new normal, “we believe we have experienced our full share of the impact and are now geared to go back to profitability.”
The opening quarter for 2021 (July-September) saw improvements in sales volumes on the back of eased restrictions from the COVID-19 necessitated lockdown.
- Revenue posted is N30.02billion, 11.64% increase from the N26.89billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2020.
- However, Cost of sales worsened by 21.1%, increasing from N18.9billion in Q1 2020 to N23.01billion in Q1 2021.
- Marketing and distribution expenses, as well as administration expenses, showed marginal reduction, depicting management interest in controlling these variables.
Generally speaking, results for the opening quarter show signs of improvement, but the tax component was the primary factor responsible for masking the progress obtained in Q1 and eroding promising signs.
With the gradual re-opening of its previously closed company buildings in Benin City, and the shift in focus from the largely underwhelming lager segment to investing more in spirits, it will be interesting to see how this impacts volumes and revenue in subsequent quarters, despite the apparent economic conditions.
Why Treasury Bills at 2% is actually a good thing
While the current prevailing rate of 2% might not be good news for investors, the low rates could be better for the Nigerian economy.
Latest stop rates from the Nigerian Treasury Bill auction held last week revealed some of the lowest rates for the nation’s T-Bills market in recent times. The 91-day bills had stop rates of 1% and the 182-day bills was also 1%. For the full year, the 364-day bills had an equally low rate of 2%. This is actually a good thing, as investors will become more creative, amongst other benefits.
If you were a frequent Treasury bills investor in the pre-COVID-19 era, you will most likely agree that one of the favorite markets for risk-averse investors, has taken a major dip over the past year. In 2019, the rate was as high as 13.029% – enough to give you a fighting chance with the equally high rate of inflation, as opposed to a savings account offering around 4%.
However, while the current prevailing rate of 2% might not be good news for investors; theoretically, the low rates could be better for the Nigerian economy.
Double digits risk-free rates impede development
At the very basic level, having a risk-free investment that yields a guaranteed interest rate of about 15%, means that investors can put in their funds and fold their hands. Therefore, the option of making less risky investments become less alluring, as the lower rates can easily be mitigated by the relative safety of the principal (and return!) – something many businesses cannot boast of today.
Put simply, why should business owners risk employing people and possibly make losses, when they can invest in Treasury bills? After all, they too are exposed to the same inflation rate.
Unsurprisingly, this has contributed its own fair share in impeding the growth of the nation. Think about the percentage of the income of Nigerian financial institutions like banks that are from Treasury Bills. Conservatively, Nigerian PFA’s also have a significant percentage of their funds in Treasury bills – doing little and gaining little. It is always about the “cheapest to deliver.”
No society can effectively spur development with only safe investments, as it comes with its own benefits like creating more jobs, building the stock market, and ultimately strengthening the industries in the country.
‘Model’ economies have really low risk-free interest rates
Some of the largest economies like the US, Japan, and Germany are known to have some of the lowest rates for risk-free assets. Whilst their rates cannot also be isolated from their equally low borrowing costs, the facts are crystal clear.
From a demand and supply standpoint, at 15%, it means that what the government is willing to pay to get capital is high. This makes it even more expensive for the government to fund infrastructural development.
From a private sector standpoint, it is by taking risks that angel investors emerge, companies get seed funding, and further development is enhanced. Without this development, very few jobs will be created. Interestingly, most of the countries with the highest amount of venture capitalist investments have some of the lowest rates for risk-free assets.
How investments should be done
There is an old investment strategy known as “Carry Trade.” The way it works is simple – you borrow at a low-interest rate, convert the borrowed amount into another currency, and invest in assets that provide higher rates of return in that currency. If Treasury Bills offer such high rates, “foreign investments” of this nature will not aid in the overall development of the economy. As long as the exchange rate is stable, investors get to make a killing with no value-added. This is just one of the many lapses of investing in high risk-free assets.
With the rates low, people can now invest the way investment should be done. Investors will now be forced to be creative. Consequently, this will birth even further infrastructural developments. For example, with this rate sustained, mortgage-backed securities and other forms of infrastructural funding can now take place.
Though, it is not without its own limitations, keeping the free money low is always a better option.
#ENDSARS Protests: Why this is different
The #ENDSARS is not just a protest about rogue police officers, it is larger than that and this is why.
In June 2019, the Hong Kong Government revealed plans to implement a controversial law that allows the extradition of Hong Kong citizens to mainland China.
As the government dithered, pockets of protests broke out, which triggered clashes with Policemen that most protesters viewed as excessive. Within days, protesters went from a few thousands to over 2 million, the largest in the history of Hong Kong.
By the time the government decided to pull back the bill; the protesters, many of them young, were already demanding for more than just a withdrawal of the bill. They wanted the police investigated and prosecuted for using excessive force, amnesty for protesters, and a right to vote for all.
The protests lasted for about 6 months only to be dissipated by social distancing requirements, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Before then, protesters had grounded the economy, which drove the Hong Kong economy into a recession and $3 billion in stimulus.
Nigeria is experiencing its own version of protests similar to that of Hong Kong, except that it does not have any money to inject as stimulus. The latest protests were triggered by anger over the alleged violent killings and extortion by the controversial anti-robbery unit of the police, known as SARS or FSARS.
For years, young Nigerians, mostly via social media, have called for the unit to be disbanded and rogue elements in the force brought to justice. Despite repeated promises by the government, they have failed to heed to their demands, triggering a new wave of protests that has now spread across the country.
From demanding an end to SARS, prosecution of rogue police officers, and reforms; Protesters are more emboldened, threatening to continue if all their demands are not met. The government is scrambling to contain a situation that is escalating and could dangerously metamorphose into violent clashes with authorities, leading to loss of lives and destruction of properties.
There is also fear that this week’s protest could be sustained for more days, if not weeks. You only need to look at the economy of the Nigerian Youth to understand why this is such a critical moment.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Youth unemployment is at an all-time high of 34.9%, making up 64.3% of total unemployed Nigerians. University students have also been at home for months, due to the 7 months ASUU strike.
Their parents are also facing tougher economic conditions with inflation rate galloping past 13%, after multiple devaluations and the removal of fuel subsidy. It was just a matter of time for them to find a rallying point to vent their frustration.
There is still a window for the government to de–escalate tensions, and it is not just by accepting the terms of protesters on paper and making bogus pronouncements. Nigerian youths want concrete actions and it starts by making immediate changes in the leadership of the Police – the rogue unit in particular. Officers suspected of murdering innocent Nigerians need to be made to face justice.
The government also needs to urgently resolve its dispute with the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) on the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS). Students and young Nigerians also need to be offered grants and palliatives to help them cushion the effects of an economic crunch that is in no way their making.
Proceeds from the Nigerian Youth Investment Funds should be disbursed immediately to those who have applied. The government also needs to introduce student loan schemes for millions of Nigerian youths, who can’t afford to pay for quality university education.
The National Assembly also needs to introduce laws that protect young Nigerians from police brutality, status profiling and wrongful arrest. Investments in mega tech hubs across the country, establishment of recreation zones in major cities must be carried out by State Governments, to keep them engaged in activities that can better their lives.
No investor, local or foreign will put money in any country where its youths are in a long-drawn protest with the government. As the economic cost of the protests for the last few days continues to mount, the negative effects could be more dire than a deeper recession.
#ENDSARS does not just represent a protest against rogue Police officers; it is a symptom of the poor state of the economy, which for months has only gotten worse. Fortunately, the agitation can still be managed but time is running out.