Welcome to Fixed Income Daily, a column where we look at the performance of major economic indicators and highlights from tradings sessions and key statistics such as Treasury Bills, bonds, FX rates, inflation, oil price.
Key Indicators
Bonds
The FGN Bond market remained relatively quiet with yields ticking slightly higher by c.3bps following slight sell on the short end of the curve which came on the back of an OMO resumption by the CBN.
The market appears to still be net long of bonds, whilst demand interests have been quieter in absence of the significant offshore flows witnessed in the previous quarter. We consequently expect yields to maintain its current range (14.00% – 14.50%) in the near term, as market players look forward to the release of the DMO’s Q2 calendar to evaluate the expected amount of bond supply for Q2 2019.
Treasury Bills
The T-bills market traded on a relatively quiet note with yields rising marginally higher by c.4bps following slight sell on the long end of the curve, which came on the back of the OMO resumption by the CBN.
The CBN renewed its OMO offering with a signifcant sale of c.N325bn of the N200bn offered, in a bid to mop up the excess system liqudity from the FAAC inflows last week. The stop rates across the three tenors offered were relatively unchnaged from previous levels, clearing at 11.78% (-2bps), 13.00% (+2bps) and 13.04% (unchgd) on the 86, 163 and 352 day bills respectively.
The CBN will conduct an NTB primary Market auction on behalf of the FG tomorrow, with N10bn, N17.6bn and N68.08bn of the 91, 182 and 364-day bills respectively on offer. We expect the stop rates at the auction to clear slightly above their previous levels due to the renewed OMO sale by the CBN today.
Money Market
Rates in the money market spiked by c.10pct following outflows for the c.N325bn OMO sale and c.N75bn funding for the CBN’s weekly wholesale FX auction, which mopped up most of the existing system liquidity which opened the day at c.N405bn positive. The OBB and OVN rates consequently ended the session at 16.57% and 17.43% respectively.
We expect rates to moderate slightly lower tomorrow, as banks would be able to access the CBN’s SLF for their funding needs at slightly lower rates.
FX Market
At the Interbank, the Naira/USD rate weakened slightly by 0.02% to N307.00/$ at the spot market, while the SMIS rate remained unchanged at N355.78/$. The NAFEX closing rate in the I&E window however appreciated further by 0.08% to N360.30/$, as market turnover improved markedly by 160% to $405m. At the parallel market, the cash rate appreciated by 0.08% to N358.00/$ whilst the transfer rate remained unchanged at N364.00/$.
Eurobonds
Interests on the NGERIA Sovereigns softened in today’s session, with yields compressing marginally by c.1bp on the day, whilst we witnessed slight profit taking on some maturities (38s and 49s).
In the NGERIA Corps, Investors interests remained firm on the longer dated tickers (22s – 23s).
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I think stock should have been doing well, particularly the oil and gas sector now that there is increase in the international oil market. What do you say about this.