Too big to fail. Is anyone or anything really too big to fail? 10 years ago, the answer to this may have been yes; some institutions, some businesses, some countries, some people are reckoned to be too big to fail. But financial history took a turn on September 15, 2008, when Lehman Brothers, the fourth biggest investment bank in the United States, and one of the top 10 around the world, collapsed.
Lehman Brothers, with an asset base of over $600 billion filed for bankruptcy. This was at a time when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the two leading economies in Africa was less than $600 billion — Nigeria at $208.1 billion, South Africa at $287.1 billion, according to World Bank figures. Its assets also far surpassed those of previous bankrupt giants such as WorldCom, whose asset base was over $107 billion and Enron’s over $63 billion, making Lehman’s bankruptcy filing the largest in history. It was unprecedented in the history of the United States — that a 158-year-old company, with the size, scope and reach of Lehman Brothers could file for bankruptcy.
The mighty do not just fall; they stumble, they stagger, they get betrayed by balance, and then, they fall. This is the story of Lehman Brothers. The demise of the company and its 26,000 employee base did not happen in a day; it all started with the ambition to be one of the top players in real estate financing, with foresight into what was to become the US housing boom (and most of Western Europe), which turned out to be a bubble and eventually resulted in the biggest bust since the Great Depression.
Between 2003–2004, Lehman had acquired five mortgage lenders, and had a loan record of over $40 billion, securing its place as one of the biggest players in the housing industry. In two years, 2004 to 2006 precisely, Lehman’s real estate business was making unprecedented profits, and its market cap had grown by over 50 percent.
Foresight soon turned blind-spot, as it was gradually becoming clear that the company was not prepared for the emerging bust in the US housing boom. It pretended to be fine, despite a seven-year rise in the rate of defaults in the housing system. On March 14, 2007 Lehman presented its Q1 results showing record profits and revenue. A very similar situation was recorded in the second quarter, when the firm reported a 27 percent increase in profit, glossing over the impending doom within its real estate and mortgage arm.
Christopher O’Meara, its chief financial officer at the time, admitted that the subprime mortgage implosion had effects on the company’s Q2 results, but cleverly injected confidence into the system by saying the firm did not anticipate those troubles moving into the wider credit markets. By August 2007, the credit crisis was close to its peak, but the market was still in a place where the bubble was still being confused to be a boom. Hedge funds could no longer hide as two Bear Stearns hedge funds failed, leading to job losses within the Lehman firm. Soon, the firm wrote down a huge portion of its mortgage-backed securities, saving face in the short term.
Fast forward to January 2008, Lehman Brothers stock was back up, and the company went on to report record revenues of nearly $60 billion and record earnings of over $4 billion for its fiscal year ending 30 November, 2007. The numbers were great; earnings per share was up seven percent, making an upward trend for the fourth consecutive year. Dick Fuld, the chairman and CEO of the firm also carefully ignored the problems the company was facing.
The pretense continued until March, 2008, when Bear Stearns — the second largest underwriter of mortgage-backed securities — lost $18 billion in one week, following its exposure to Carlyle Capital Corporation (CCC), a $22bn hedge fund exposed to mortgage-backed securities. JP Morgan, one of the biggest banks in the US, had to acquire Bear Stearns with the help of the Federal Reserve of New York for $10 per share. For market observers, Lehman was next. Its exposure to mortgage-backed securities was known to Wall Street, and its shares began to tank, falling by 20 percent in 24 hours. Before long, the company had lost as much as 48 percent of its share price.
That historic weekend in September 2008, the heads of major firms on Wall Street gathered at the Fed New York office, in what was an attempt to save Lehman and others. But the Treasury Secretary said it could not be done with government money. By Sunday, Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America for $50 billion to avert what was coming. This was a historic meeting that weekend, especially as the details of the meeting have emerged. Lehman Brothers could not be saved
Lehman immediately became the poster child for the housing crisis and what would later be known as the 2008 Global Economic Crisis. Its activities in 28 countries ensured that the damage was not just in the US but on a global scale. Considering the magnitude of the failures recorded in the system, I knew that the effect of the collapse would be global. In Nigeria, the effect of that crisis was not immediately felt. The Nigerian economy did not falter until a year later, after the global recession made the price of crude oil — which had a significant impact on the economy — tank.
A lot of my friends lost their jobs in the city and on Wall Street; there was fear, confusion, market uncertainty and massive profit or losses for businesses with high-risk appetites. Some hedge funds managed to make money through this period, but most people lost.
My belief in capitalism was shaken, and still is. This period had reinforced the clarity I had earlier about the role of markets in the economy. I gained a new understanding as to how the market economy will work going forward. I came to know and understand the role that capital will come to play in our time.
With this understanding, I doubled down on setting up a capital formation/management company, with my capital as the anchor of the fund.
In March 2009, l met a group of young, like-minded individuals who had been discussing floating a structure similar to what I had been thinking about — a capital formulation and management firm. We joined forces with a company called Premium Green Ltd, the anchor investor in VFD Group today.
So we started trying to raise funds for our new venture. The sentiments in the country at the time was against us, coupled with the fact that the rest of the world was still trying to recover from the biggest recession since the Great Depression. In the end, we were able to raise only N14.2 million. This was very abysmal for us; you would expect a group of young professionals with enviable academic and professional records to raise more capital for a promising business venture.
This re-emphasised my point on the importance of capital, both in personal capacity and company way. “Capital formation” became the phrase we employed in describing what we wanted to achieve with our company. There was a capital gap in the Nigerian financial ecosystem, and part of our company’s drive was to fix that. Today, it is safe to say that we have been reasonably successful in this endeavour, but it is still a tip of the iceberg, when compared to what needs to be done.
A few years later, the revered French economist, Thomas Piketty, released his book Capital in the Twenty-First Century to great fanfare. I willingly read cover to cover, despite its length. This book helped give more clarity to my understanding of capital and the role it will play in this century, which in a sense it did in the 20th century (The Great Divide).
Even though the book is almost 700 pages long, its content is simplified for understanding into a single equation: R > G. Where R is the rate of return on capital and G is the growth rate of the economy.
The theory argues that the rate of return on capital will always be greater than the growth in the economy. By implication, those earning on capital will make more money than those merely earning on labour (frankly for adjustments, for inflation). Naturally, this will result in widening inequality in income and wealth of capital owners and non-capital owners.
Just before the first World War (WWI), capital/landowners, who made up a tiny percent of the population of the world, controlled 90% of global assets. After the second World War (WWII), the world made some progress in wealth redistribution, creating the largest middle class in the history of modern humankind. Brookings Institution estimates that the global middle class hit 2 billion in 2006 — just before the crisis. According to a working paper by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 1.8 billion people were members of the global middle class in 2010. The recession knocked many off, but the numbers are still way better than it was before WWII. But today, all that progress is being threatened.
Thomas Piketty wrote the book to warn policymakers about the rising inequality and the role capital plays in making that happen. He explains that with the right policy suite, the world can combat inequality. Unfortunately, with QE (quantitative easing) and other monetary and fiscal policies being adopted throughout the world, to combat the 2007 credit crisis, 2008 financial and economic crisis, the opposite was achieved. The recovery has mostly favoured people with assets/capital. The alternative would have been too painful for the people, and the policymakers barely had the political will to execute.
But for me, it was a clear warning on following through with what I had realised and learnt over the last few years, after the collapse of Lehman and our failed attempt at raising capital for our venture in Nigeria.
As long as R > G, capital is everything. In my research of families who had been able to transition wealth into 2/3/4/ generations, I found that one of the major reasons for the inability of Nigerian families to preserve wealth through generations is that the wealth hardly exists in form of capital. I acknowledge that there are other reasons peculiar to the Nigerian economic and cultural systems that hamper wealth, but I affirm that the major reason wealth evaporates after a generation is due to lack of conversion of wealth into capital. This is why we struggle to take wealth beyond a single generation.
The following are my takeaways and recommendations:
- R > G : Capital is everything: Aggregate and accumulate it as if your life depends on it. Actually, your life depends on it.
- Capital does not have to start big. It is nice if it does start out that way, but that should not stop you. With understanding and discipline, you can start with any amount. In fact, you can subscribe to one of the Saving Apps (VFD Group can help you with this.)
- Effective and Efficient Management of Capital: Management of capital is very important for its preservation and growth. If you are not savvy in capital management, it is better to outsource it to trusted players, with keen supervision, than to mismanage it. I hate to plug our company, but we can do this for you.
- Law of Compounding Interest: This simple concept is what separates a life of financial security and otherwise. Aggregate the capital, find the right products/company to manage it, sit back and let compounding interest get you richer.
- In times of risk and economic failures, capital suffer losses — sometimes huge — but it is also the biggest gainer in a time of recovery. This explains why we have seen people with capital/assets survive burst and boom cycles, time and time again. The biggest gains of the recovery since the crisis, are capital owners.
This piece originally appeared on the Medium page of Niyi Addenubi, Executive Director, Institutional Business and Investor Relations, VFD Group.
MTN shareholders have made approximately N1 trillion since April 2020
Shareholders of MTN Nigeria gained close to a trillion naira in less than 7 months.
MTN Nigeria shareholders have gained N986.58 billion since the first trading session in April 2020.
This was uncovered by calculating the difference in the telecommunication giant’s market capitalization of ₦1.832 trillion at the open of trade, for the first trading session in the month of April 2020, and the market capitalization of ₦2.646 trillion at the close of trade in the first trading session in the month of October.
This gives a whopping N814 billion increase in market capitalization, and this with the dividend the company has paid to shareholders on two occasions between this time period, brings the total gains both realized and unrealized to approximately N1 trillion.
Hence, the N814 billion increase in market capitalization translates to the joint gains MTN investors have made from the increase in the shares of the company, as the share price of the company has increased by 44.44% or ₦40.00 between April 1, 2020, and October 2, 2020, with the share price of increasing from ₦90.00 to ₦130.00.
However, the gains MTN NG investors have made from their investments in the telecommunication company, is not limited to the gains driven by the increase in the price of the shares.
Recall that the company declared payment of dividends to its shareholders on two occasions, as investors/shareholders of the company, whose names appear in the Register of Members, as of the close of business on April 17, 2020 and August 14, 2020 were paid a cumulative dividend per share of ₦8.47, for all the outstanding shares of 20,354,513,050 held by the shareholders, and this translates to a total dividend payout of N171 billion by the company to its shareholders.
It is noteworthy that the realized and unrealized gains MTN investors have made from holding the shares over this period stands at N986.58 billion.
LASACO Assurance Plc Chairman, Aderinola Disu resigns from the Board of Directors
Aderinola Disu resigned her position as a Director on the Board of LASACO Assurance.
Lasaco Assurance Plc has announced the resignation of its former Chairman, Mrs. Aderinola Disu, as a Director on the Board. The resignation took effect from the 8th of September, 2020.
The following information is contained in a press release made available to the public, signed by the company Secretary, Gertrude Olutekunbi, and verified by Nairametrics.
The notification also revealed that, the aforementioned firm has received a provisional approval from the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) to appoint two other directors.
The two newly appointed directors are; Dr (Mrs.) Maria Olateju Phillips, and Prince Jamiu Adio Saka, both appointed to a Non-Executive Director role.
Profile of the two newly appointed Directors
Chief (Mrs.) Teju Phillips, is a successful Chartered Accountant, who holds an ACCA from England and Wales. She is multilingual and has extensive experience in Management/Consultancy services, that spans across many years in both the public and private sectors. She has served as a Director in Keystone Bank; Director, Lagos State Lottery Board; Honorable Commissioner for Special Duties & Inter-Governmental Relations in Lagos State; Managing Director of Alma Beach Estate Ltd (a subsidiary of Rims Merchant Bank Ltd); Managing Director, Maridot Ventures Ltd. among others.
Prince Jamiu Adio Saka, is an accomplished Insurance professional, having practiced in Canada and Nigeria. He brings to the board over 30 years of experience as a Broker.
Lasaco Assurance Plc, is a listed Nigerian firm that provides life and general insurance services, which includes motor, bond, contractors-all-risk, fire, burglary, aviation, marine, general accident, life, pension schemes, engineering, and oil and gas. The company has a market capitalization of about N2.05 billion and it share price currently trades at N0.28 kobo.
MTN: Data subscriptions triggered surge in Q2 2020 Revenues
Data revenues jumped from N56.7 billion to N79.9 billion in the period under review.
Analysis of the MTN’s results shows that revenues surged, due to increased data usage, aided by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTN), reported revenues of N638.1 billion in H1 2020, relative to N566.9 billion recorded in the same period in 2019 – a 12.5% increase.
MTN Plc is Nigeria’s premier provider of connectivity, communication, and collaboration solutions. From the very first phone call, made at Maritime House Apapa, Lagos, Nigeria on May 16th, 2001, MTN Plc has been facilitating connections in Nigeria.
The COVID-19 related lockdown affected businesses worldwide, including businesses in Nigeria. This resulted in most business activities being conducted virtually, in a bid to salvage businesses from collapsing. With social distancing rule, came an increased utilization of online mediums for meetings, weddings, social interactions, and everything that couldn’t be done physically. Consequently, people consumed more data compared with the pre-COVID-19 periods.
According to the latest data available on the NCC website, MTN Plc’s market share of internet subscribers is 42.54%. Its revenue-generating segments include Voice, Data, SMS, Interconnect and Roaming, Handset and Accessories, Digital, Value Added Service, and Other revenues. Aside from SMS, revenues from the other seven segments increased in H1 2020 compared with the previous period last year.
Data revenues jumped from N56.7 billion to N79.9 billion in the period under review. The number of port-out subscribers almost doubles port-in subscribers in the period under consideration, so this does not confound the analysis conducted, which revealed that COVID-19 lockdown boosted data revenues.
The Earnings Per Share (EPS) of the company declined by 4.70% in H1 2020 from N4.89 to N4.66 compared with the same period last year. A 4.68% decline in distributable profit to N94.88 billion in H1 2020, relative to N99.54 billion contributed to this decline in H1 2019.
MTN Plc’s shares were listed on the floor of the NSE on 16th May 2019. The shares currently trade at N129 per unit. The highest price for a unit of share in 52 weeks was N132 and the lowest N90. A total of 51,885,740 units was sold in the last seven days trades. Shares outstanding is 20,354,513,050 units and its market capitalization is N2.63 trillion.
Airtel Africa Plc operates in the same sub-sector as MTN Nigeria Plc – Telecommunications Services. Airtel Africa Plc’s share price is N380. The highest price for a unit of share in 52 weeks was N380 and the lowest N298.90. A total of 15,972 units was sold in the last seven days trades. Shares outstanding is 3,758,151,504 units and its market capitalization is N1,428,097.57 trillion.
On the 30th of September 2020, Telecompaper reported that MTN has added MusicTime playlists to its Ayoba app. MTN’s Ayoba platform and MusicTime announced a partnership deal to bring free music to Ayoba app users. MusicTime in Ayoba is now live in Nigeria and some other African countries, including South Africa and Ghana. The app offers users free access to ten playlists with twenty songs each.
Ayoba is an instant messaging app powered by MTN. With Ayoba, it is possible to chat with anyone, regardless of whether they have the Ayoba app or not. Users who do not have the app, but receive an SMS from an Ayoba user, will be able to respond via SMS, and it will display within the Ayoba user’s chat in the app. Ayoba is available on Android devices (iOS to come later).