Inflation rate drops for the 17th consecutive time

Key Highlights

• Inflation rate stood at 11.23% in June.
• Inflation rate reduces by 0.37% from June.
• Inflation rate increased by 1.24% on month-on-month basis.
• Food inflation stood at 12.98% in June.
• Core Inflation stood at 10.4% in June.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Monday released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2018. The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living.

The report shows inflation increased by 11.23% (year-on-year) in June 2018 which is 0.37% less than the recorded rate in May, 2018 (11.61%). This reduction is the seventeenth consecutive time inflation rate has been dropping since January, 2017.

Core Inflation

According to the NBS report, core inflation stood at 10.4% and decreased by 0.3% in the month of June from the 10.7% recorded in May. On a month on basis, it rose by 1.03% in the period under review. It was up by 0.05% when compared with 0.98% recorded in May.

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However, the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending June, 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 11.65%, which is a reduction of 0.18% from 11.83% recorded in May.

Food Inflation

The Composite Food Index rose by 12.98%, during the period under review. This was caused by the increase in price of potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, bread and cereals, Oil and fats, vegetables, coffee, tea and cocoa, Meat, Milk, cheese and eggs.

Also, on a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 1.57% in the month of June 2018, it went up by 0.24% from 1.33% that was recorded in the previous month of May.

The CPI report also shows that the average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending June 2018 over the previous twelve-month average was 17.75%, which is a reduction of 0.61% from the average annual rate of change recorded in the month of May (18.36%).

Urban Inflation

Meanwhile, the report equally shows that there is a 11.68% reduction in the urban inflation rate (year-on-year) in June 2018 from 12.08% recorded in the previous month of May 2018. The rural inflation rate also dropped by 10.83% in June 2018, from 11.20% in the previous month of May 2018.

In the same vein, the urban index rose by 1.24% in June 2018 from 1.10% in May, on a month-on-month basis. For Rural Index, it also rose by 1.23%, from the recorded figure of 1.08% in the previous month of May.

The corresponding 12-month year-on-year rural inflation rate in the period under review is 14.08% compared to 14.53% in May 2018 while the corresponding urban index is 14.71% which is less than 15.10% reported in May, 2018.

All Items Inflation (states)

Meanwhile, during the month under review, Rivers State recorded the highest all-items-inflation with a figure of 13.82%. Kebbi State (13.61%) and Adamawa State (13.41%) followed in that order, while Kwara State (8.16%) recorded the slowest rise in price during the period. Benue followed with 9.28% while Plateau recorded 9.49% on a year-on-year all item basis in June, 2018.

Implication

For investors, falling inflation means lower yields on treasury bills and other government securities. For select borrowers, the drop in inflation, in theory, should lead to lower rates.

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