President Muhammadu Buhari achieved victory at the polls on the back of his “change” campaign. Three years on and the jury is already out on his performance especially on the economic front.
One critical area of performance is the unemployment rate. The amount of jobs created or lost is an important determinant in how well a government has performed. This chart depicts Nigeria’s unemployment rate data since Buhari came into power.
So what do you think? Good or bad?
Oil and Gas companies revenues plummet by over N84 billion in 3 months
Revenue losses span across oil and gas upstream and downstream at levels not seen in recent years.
Revenues of some of the major oil and gas companies quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange fell by about 38% in the second quarter of 2020 wiping out a whopping N84.7 billion from their topline revenues.
This is according to data compiled from the recently released results of the listed companies in the oil and gas sector. They include Mobile Oil (II), Ardova, Total, & Seplat, the only major oil and gas firms that have released their Q2 financials. Oando and Conoil, are yet to release their results. The data was compiled by Nairametrics Research.
Total, Mobil, and Ardova are oil marketing companies while Seplat is into upstream oil and gas production. They are also some of the biggest oil companies listed on the exchange and in Nigeria.
The companies reported combined revenue of N135.6 billion in the second quarter of 2020 compared to N220.3 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Revenue in Q1 was N219 billion. The Nigerian economy, particularly the oil and gas sector has been hit hard by the oil price crash and the COVID-19 pandemic and could be a major reason for the loss in revenues.
The companies also recorded a combined loss before tax of N16.6 billion compared to N38 billion in pretax profits reported in the same period in 2019. The second-quarter losses compound an already bad situation for these companies after reporting a loss before tax of N28.7 billion in the first quarter of 2020. These companies have now seen a combined N45.4 billion wiped out of their profits.
Why the revenue drop?
A closer look at the data reveals most of the losses came from the oil marketing firms Total and Mobil. Over N56 billion of the revenue loss was between Mobil and Total. Seplat and Ardova lost just over N5 billion respectively.
A cursory review of their results suggests the companies suffered from a drop in demand for refined products such as fuel, diesel, and lubricants. Nigerians were mostly on lockdown throughout April and May before reopening partially in June and July. However, the damage had been done as adherence to safety procedures meant fewer people were commuting impacting heavily on sales.
Seplat was also hit by dipping crude oil prices and weak demand for its crude. Nairametrics reported back in April that oil prices at some point fell to negative territory as demanded waned globally.
Despite the drops, the companies continued to incur overheads and operating expenses which they could not entirely avoid despite the lockdowns. Gross Margins for the quartet fell by 61% year on year putting the companies on the path to losses.
Implication on the wider economy
A review of some of the results already seen by Nairametrics indicates nearly all sectors recorded revenue losses. This is also likely the same situation across the country as Nigeria awaits the second-quarter GDP numbers sometime this month.
Though oil and gas firms faced a twin dose of a fall in crude oil prices and the Covid-19 situation, all sectors except for oil and gas and Agriculture sectors recorded high revenue declines. The companies under review last reported a similar drop in revenues and loss before tax in 2016 when Nigeria entered a recession.
The government is projecting a GDP contraction in excess of 3% and already reported a revenue shortfall of over 50% this year.
Fortunately, the companies still held a sizeable cash balance of N136.7 billion t the end of the quarter putting them in a position to weather the storm.
Nigeria generates N327.2 billion VAT in Q2, as revenue plunges across critical sectors
The decline in VAT implies that uncertainty surrounds the effective implementation of the 2020 budget.
Nigeria generated a total sum of N327.1 billion revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT) in the second quarter of 2020, up by 0.81% when compared to N324.58 billion in Q1 2020. This is contained in the latest VAT report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Despite VAT remittance growing by 0.81% in the second quarter, critical sectors in the Nigerian economy such as manufacturing, hotel catering, trading, transport, oil, and construction recorded significant declines in VAT remittances during the period. Overall, twenty-one (21) of the twenty-eight (28) sectors recorded declines in VAT remittances in Q2 2020, a significant decline which may be largely attributed to the COVID-19 induced lockdown across the country during the period.
VAT by sectors: Breaking down the numbers
- In Q2 2020, the biggest decline in VAT remittance was from hotel and catering service with a 45.5% drop in VAT remittance from N2.52 billion received in Q1 2020 to N1.36 billion at the end of Q2 2020.
- Also, the manufacturing sector recorded a 19% decline in VAT remittance from N37.3 billion in Q1 2020 to N30.2 billion. Expectedly, VAT earning from oil marketing plugged 18.8%, while oil production dropped by 7.4%.
- Other critical sectors that recorded declines in VAT earnings in Q2 2020 include Automobiles (-30%), Breweries (-27.3%), Construction (22.9%), Commercial and Trading (-19%), Agriculture and Plantation (-14.8%).
- Meanwhile, despite significant decline across critical sectors, the increase in VAT was largely driven by pioneering. In Q2 2020, Nigeria received 643.7% boost in pioneer VAT remittances, from N868.8 million in Q1 to N6.46 billion in Q2 2020. This represents the biggest growth in VAT remittances across all sectors in the period.
Revenue challenge threatens 2020 budget implementation
The decline in Value Added Tax across some key sectors in the Nigerian economy implies that uncertainty still surrounds the effective implementation of the 2020 budget.
Recall that in the 2019 budget, Nigeria projected a total Value Added Tax revenue of N1.7 trillion as it anticipated higher tax revenues from vatable goods and services. Meanwhile, Value Added Tax collected during the year was N1, 188.85 (billions) compared to a budget of N1,703.89 billion, thereby representing a negative variance of N515 billion or 30%.
Again, in the recently approved 2020 revised budget, the FG once again estimated total Value Added Tax revenue of N2.03 trillion. However, in H1 2020, the total Value Added Tax generated by Nigerian is estimated at N651.7 billion, represents 32.1% of target met.
COVID-19 pandemic has dealt the world economy a huge blow, characterized by travel restriction, supply chain disruption and weak oil prices. Nigeria on the other hand has not been spared by the economic downturn with revenue expected to decline further amid recession fears.
Eid-El-Kabir: Food prices surge, as ram traders decry low patronage
Major food items in Lagos state markets continue to endure persistent price increase.
Eid-El-Kabir celebration is here again and Nigerians are ready to join their families and friends in the festivities. Every year, as Muslim faithfuls across the world celebrate Eid-El-Kabir, the acts of buying and slaughtering rams are sine qua nons of the celebration and a form of sacrifice to Allah (S.A.W).
Nairametrics Research visited major markets for a ‘Special’ household market survey and found that ram/cow prices have typically ramped up. Meanwhile, traders lamented low patronage and sales.
Also, major food items across main markets in Lagos State have continued to increase in price. Staples such as rice, beans, yam, garri, potatoes, and others, recorded significant jumps in prices when compared to figures obtained two weeks ago. As Nairametrics reported in the previous market surveys, prices of food items have been recording a significant increase since the COVID-19 induced lockdown disrupted major economic activities.
According to the latest survey, a big basket of oval-shaped tomatoes now sells for an average of N12,000, indicating a 20% increase compared to N10,000 recorded two weeks ago. Also, a big basket of sweet potatoes which previously sold at N8,000, jumped by as much as 81.3% to sell for an average of N14,500.
The report detailed items that recorded an increase in price, items that decreased in price, items that maintained initial prices, special market reports, and key insights.
Items that witnessed price increase
Some of the items that recorded significant increases in price include:
- A big bag of melon seeds (Egusi), which was sold for an average of N39,000, now costs an average of N42,000. This represents a 7.7% increase in price.
- The price of a big bag of dry onions now goes for an average of N25,000 compared to an average of N17,000 recorded two weeks ago, thus indicating a 47.1% increase in price.
- The price of a big bag of white garri within the last two weeks, increased by 18.4% from an initial average of N11,250 to sell for an average of N13,325.
- A bag of yellow garri recorded a 3.1% increase in price as it currently sells for an average of N12,625 when compared to the N12,250 recorded two weeks ago.
- A bag of 10kg Mama Gold rice increased by 6.3% to sell for an average of N4,250 compared to N4,000 recorded two weeks ago.
- The price of a 50kg bag of rice spiked by 8.8% from N21.375 recorded two weeks ago to sell for an average of N23,250.
- A big tuber of yam that was initially sold for an average of N838 now costs an average of N913. This represents a 9% increase in price.
- A medium-sized tuber also increased by 24% to sell for an average of N775 as against N625 recorded a fortnight ago.
- A big basket of oval-shaped tomatoes now sells for an average of N12,000 at Mile 12 market, an increase of 20% compared to N10,000 recorded two weeks ago.
- A bag of yellow maize that was initially sold for an average of N17,250 now sells for an average of N19,667 indicating a 14% increase in price.
- Also, a bag of white maize increased by 8.6% to sell for an average of N19,000 from the initial average price of N17,500.
Items that maintained initial price
- A carton of 210g Indomie (Hungry man size) continues to sell for an average of N3,200.
- A 305g size of Indomie sells for an average of N2,900.
- 500g and 900g Milo tins still sell for an average of N1,038 and N2,075 respectively
- The prices of Kote and Titus fish continue to go for N563 and 575 respectively.
- 12.5kg of household cooking gas (refilled) continues to sell for an average of N3,375 while 5kg cylinder is still filled for an average of N1,400.
- Bush mango seeds (Ogbono) still sell for N75,000 at Mile 12 market, same as recorded two weeks ago.
- A 50kg bag of flour, Honeywell, Mama Gold and Dangote still sell for N11,200, N11,075 and N11,100 respectively.
- A 500g packet of pasta (Golden Penny) continue to sell for an average of N4,300, while Dangote pasta sells for an average of N4,125.
Special Feature: Rams Markets
Traders in the market have complained of low sales turn-out, a situation that was caused by a hike in the prices of the commodity which comes directly from the Northern part of Nigeria. One ram seller at Kappa Market said:
“We have limited stock of ram this year compared to last year because there is no much money in the country. We are not expecting good profit this year because of low sales and high cost from the North. Some cows here are sold for N250,000, N500,000 and even N1 million depending on the size of the cow.”
He explained further to Nairametrics Research that some of the rams from the North are sold for an average of N180,000 compared to last year when the same size of ram was sold for N150,000 while some that were sold for N95,000 last year now sell for an average of N110,000.
A visit to Mangoro market revealed that low sales were anticipated by the traders, considering the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, leading to low stock of rams. However, Mr. Mustapha. who spoke to Nairametrics Research at Mangoro market, said that considering the economic situation in Nigeria, sales are not that bad, as some people have started buying cows and even rams in preparation for the Eid festivity.
“We currently have rams of different sizes, which vary in price. Some small sizes are sold for as low as N70,000 and as much as N150,000. Bigger sizes of rams sell for as low as N200,000 up to N450,000,” he explained.
Big bags of pepper, which were not available in the market two weeks ago are now being sold for an average of N7,500 each, compared to N15,000 recorded last month. The decrease in price was attributed to an influx of fresh peppers from the North. A medium-sized bag of peppers that was sold for an average of N10,000 two weeks ago now sells for an average of N4,500. This represents a 55% decrease in price.
Round-shaped tomatoes were sighted at Mile 12 market, having been unavailable in the market over the past months. A big basket of round-shaped tomatoes is currently sold within the range of N15,000 and N16,000.
According to a tomatoes seller at Mile 12 Market, “We have three types of tomatoes. The most expensive is the Hausa round-shaped tomatoes, which sells for an average of N15,000, another type is the Yoruba round-shaped tomatoes, which sells for an average of N14,000 while the cheapest is the oval-shaped tomatoes generally regarded as Yoruba tomatoes, which sells between the range of N12,000 and N13,000.”
A big basket of sweet potatoes that was initially sold for an average of N8,000 two weeks ago has spiked by 81.3% to sell for an average of N14,500. Mr Yaya, a potatoes trader, told Nairametrics Research that the recent increase in price of sweet potatoes is due to increase in transportation costs.
The price of a big nylon of crayfish increased by 21.4% to sell for an average of N17,000 compared to N14,000 recorded two weeks ago. According to Mr. John who sells crayfish at Mile 12 market, “We are in the season where the price of crayfish is supposed to be cheap but unfortunately, the reverse is the case”. He, however, has no explanation as to why the price of the item keeps increasing at this time.
A rice seller at Oyingbo market told Nairametrics research that local rice is of two types: the stony ones, currently being sold for an average of N20,000 while the brand of rice with superior quality sells for an average of N25,000. However, he said that foreign rice currently sells for an average of N29,000 at the market.
Below are the average prices of frozen food items measured in cartons:
Chicken lap – N12,500
Full Chicken – N12,500
Turkey – N14,200
|Items||Brand||Unit||MUSHIN (21/07/2020)||DALEKO (21/07/2020)||OYINGBO (21/07/2020)||MILE 12 (21/07/2020)||Average||MUSHIN (2/07/2020)||DALEKO (2/07/2020)||OYINGBO (2/07/2020)||MILE 12 (2/07/2020)||Average|
|Bag of Rice||Basmati||5kg||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA|
|Bag of Rice||Mama Gold||10kg||NA||4000||4500||4500||4250||NA||4000||NA||NA||4000|
|Bag of Rice||Royal Stallion||50Kg||29000||NA||29000||29500||29500||28500||NA||28000||29000||28500|
|Bag of Rice||Rice Master||10kg||NA||4000||NA||4000||4000||NA||3500||NA||4000||3750|
|Bag of Rice||Mama Gold||50kg||22000||22500||25000||24000||23250||22000||21500||21000||21000||21375|
|Bag of Rice||Caprice||50kg||28000||NA||29000||28500||28500||28000||NA||27500||27500||27666.666666667|
|Bag of Rice||Mama's Pride||50kg||23000||21000||22500||23000||22000||21500||21000||21000||21000||21125|
|Bag of Rice||Falcon||25kg||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA||NA|
|Bag of Beans||Oloyin||50kg||21000||19500||22000||22000||20750||13000||12500||13000||12500||12750|
|Bag of Beans||White||50kg||30000||29000||30000||32000||30500||22000||20500||21000||21000||21125|
|Bag of Beans||Brown||>50kg||32000||29500||35000||30000||29750||20500||19500||21500||21000||20625|
|Tuber of Yam||Abuja||1 Big Size Tuber||900||900||850||1000||912.5||850||800||800||900||837.5|
|Tuber of Yam||Abuja||1 Medium Size Tuber||750||800||750||800||775||650||600||600||650||625|
|Carton of Noodles||Indomie||305g (Belle full)||2900||2900||2900||2900||2900||2900||2900||2900||2900||2900|
|Carton of Noodles||Indomie||210g (Hungry man)||3200||3200||3200||3200||3200||3200||3200||3200||3200||3200|
|Carton of Noodles||Chikki||100g||2000||2200||2100||2100||2100||2000||2200||2100||2100||2100|
|Carton of Noodles||Minimie||70g||1600||1650||1700||1650||1650||1600||1650||1700||1650||1650|
|Carton of Noodles||Golden Penny||70g||1400||1400||1400||1400||1400||1400||1400||1400||1400||1400|
|Bag of Garri||Ijebu||80kg||13000||13500||15000||12000||13375||13000||13500||13000||14000||13375|
|Bag of Garri||White||50kg||11000||11500||19000||11800||13325||11000||11500||11500||11000||11250|
|Bag of Garri||Yellow||50kg||12000||12500||14000||12000||12625||12000||12500||12000||12500||12250|
|Basket of Potato||Sweet||Big Basket||14500||14500||8000||8000|
|Basket of Potato||Sweet||Small Basket||700||600||600||633.33333333333||700||600||600||633.33333333333|
|Basket of Potato||sweet||Smallest Basket||200||300||200||233.33333333333||200||200||200||200|
|Basket of Potato||Irish||Biggest Basket||28000||28000||20000||20000|
|Basket of Potato||Irish||Small Basket||2000||2500||2250||2000||2000||2000|
|Basket of Potato||Irish||Smallest Basket||1700||1500||1500||1566.6666666667||1700||1500||1500||1566.6666666667|
|Packet of Pasta||Golden Penny||500g||4300||4400||4300||4200||4300||4300||4400||4300||4200||4300|
|Packet of Pasta||Dangote||500g||4100||4100||4200||4100||4125||4100||4100||4200||4100||4125|
|Packet of Pasta||Power (1 pc)||500g||220||220||220||220||220||220||220||220||220||220|
|Packet of Pasta||Bonita (1 pc)||500g||230||200||230||220||220||230||200||230||220||220|
|Gallon of Palm Oil||Local||5 Litres||2200||2100||2100||2100||2125||2200||2100||2100||2100||2125|
|Gallon of Palm Oil||Local||25 Litres||11000||11000||11000||11000||11000||11000||11000||11000||11000||11000|
|Gallon of Vegetable Oil||Local||5 Litres||2400||2200||2300||2200||2275||2400||2200||2300||2200||2275|
|Gallon of Vegetable Oil||Local||25 Litres||13100||13000||13500||13500||13275||13100||13000||13300||13000||13100|
|Gallon of Vegetable Oil||Kings||5 Litres||3000||3000||3000||3000||3000||3000||3000||3000||3000||3000|
|Gallon of Vegetable Oil||Wesson||5 Litres||3900||3900||3900||3900||3900||3900||3900||3900||3900||3900|
|Gallon of Vegetable Oil||Mamador||3.8 Litres||2500||2450||2500||2400||2462.5||2500||2450||2500||2400||2462.5|
|Gallon of Vegetable Oil||Power||3 Litres||1800||1800||1800||1800||1800||1800||1800||1800||1800||1800|
|Bunch of Plaintain||Plaintain||1 Big Bunch||500||400||450||500||462.5||500||400||450||500||462.5|
|Bag of Flour||Dangote||50kg||11200||11200||11000||11000||11100||11200||11200||11000||11000||11100|
|Bag of Flour||Honey well||50Kg||11200||11200||11200||11200||11200||11200||11200||11200||11200||11200|
|Bag of Flour||Mama Gold||50kg||11000||11300||11000||11000||11075||11000||11300||11000||11000||11075|
|Milk||Peak Powdered (Tin)||400g||1250||1200||1200||1200||1212.5||1250||1200||1200||1200||1212.5|
|Milk||Peak milk (Refill)||500g||1050||1000||1000||1000||1012.5||1050||1000||1000||1000||1012.5|
|Milk||Dano Powdered (Tin)||500g||1000||1000||1000||1000||1000||1000||1000||1000||1000||1000|
|Milk||Three Crown (Refill)||380g||720||700||750||700||717.5||720||700||750||700||717.5|
|Milk||Loya Powdered (Tin)||400g||1000||1000||1000||1050||1012.5||1000||1000||1000||1050||1012.5|
|Cocoa Beverages||Milo (Tin)||500g||1000||1100||1050||1000||1037.5||1000||1100||1050||1000||1037.5|
|Cocoa Beverages||Milo (Tin)||900g||2000||2100||2100||2100||2075||2000||2100||2100||2100||2075|
|Cocoa Beverages||Milo Refill||500g||900||900||900||900||900||900||900||900||900||900|
|Cocoa Beverages||Bournvita Refill||500g||950||1000||950||900||950||950||1000||950||900||950|
|Cocoa Beverages||Bournvita (Plastic)||900g||2000||2000||2000||2000||2000||2000||2000||2000||2000||2000|
|Cocoa Beverages||Ovaltine Refill||500g||800||800||850||850||825||800||800||850||850||825|
|Tea||Lipton Yellow label||52g||310||290||300||300||300||310||290||300||300||300|
|Sugar||St' Loius Sugar(Cube)||500g||500||550||550||550||537.5||500||550||550||550||537.5|
|Sugar||Golden Penny Sugar (cube)||500g||350||350||350||400||362.5||350||350||350||400||362.5|
|Bottled Water (Refill)||Cway||Refill||600||600||650||600||612.5||600||600||650||600||612.5|
|Juice||5 Alive||1 litre||600||550||550||600||575||600||550||550||600||575|
|Tomatoes||Big Basket||round shaped||15000||15000||NA||NA|
|Medium Basket||round shaped||10000||10000||NA||NA|
|Small Basket||round shaped||6000||6000||NA||NA|
|Big Basket||Oval Shaped||12000||12000||10000||10000|
|Small Basket||Oval Shaped||7500||7500||6500||6500|
|Fish||Kote (Horse Mackerel)||1 big Fish||550||600||550||500||550||550||600||550||500||550|
|Fish||Titus (Mackerel)||1 big Fish||550||550||550||600||562.5||550||550||550||600||562.5|
|Onions||Big bag||Dry Onions||25000||25000||17000||17000|
|Onions||Big bag||New Onions||NA||NA||NA||NA|
|Bush mango seed||(Ogbono)||1 big bag||75000||75000||75000||75000|
|Frozen food||Full chicken||Carton||12500||12500||12500|
|Frozen food||Chicken lap||Carton||12500||12500||12500|
About Nairametrics Food Price Survey
Nairametrics Food Price Watch is a bi-weekly household market survey that covers the prices of major food items, with emphasis on five major markets in Lagos – Mushin market, Daleko market, Oyingbo market, Idi-Oro market and Mile 12.