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Quantitative Financial Analytics rolls out market volatility measure for Nigeria stock market

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Stock market volatility is one of those words that are being thrown around every now and then when describing stock market behaviours. For example, on January 29th, 2016, The Vanguard had an article entitled, “Stock Market Volatility – Operators Seek Govt Intervention Fund”, and On November 11th, 2017, it also had another article, The ‘Big Oil’ and market volatilities”. In the same way, ThisDay newspaper, on June 23rd, 2014 wrote “Stock Market Volatility Persists”. Even on LinkedIn pages, people write about market volatilities like the one written by Rotimi Fakayejo, MD Enterprise StockBrokers PLC, Sep 9th, 2015 who posted the article “Gainers & Losers of the volatility of the Nigerian Bourse” on his LinkedIn page. The Guardian on its business page wrote, “Equities rise on the Exchange amid volatility” on Feb 8th, 2015. Those are excellent articles both in content and intent although some made it look like market volatility is necessarily a bad thing. But one thing lacking in the articles is the quantification of how volatile the Nigerian market had been or was expected to be.

There have been various explanations for increased or subdued volatilities in the market as some of those articles opined. One reason is the arrival of new and unanticipated information that tends to or alters the expected return on a stock. News items like the Brexit, the Chinese contagion, escalation of the US-North Korea impasse can have remarkable effects on market volatility. Changes in volatility can even emanate from changes in investors’ behaviors like when investors panic in anticipation of an election result or FED or Central bank decisions on interest rates, etc.

Volatility does not imply that the market is collapsing, rather it implies that the market is behaving in such a way that it is more difficult to make accurate predictions about the market based on currently prevailing data and information. Depending on one’s investment strategy and horizon and subject to the availability of tradeable financial instruments, investors can manage and even profit from volatility. In more advanced markets with tradable financial products like variance and volatility swaps, volatility may present opportunities for profit.

It follows therefore that knowledge of volatility of returns in stock markets’ behaviour is of paramount importance to investors because such knowledge helps investors to know or gain more information on the data generating such returns. Knowing how volatile the stock market has been or is expected to be, guides investors in their decision-making process as such knowledge enables them to access both the return potential of the market as well as the uncertainty of such returns.

Volatility is the “magnitude of movements regardless of direction” and stock market volatility relates to the magnitude of price changes without paying attention to whether the change is up or down. Stock market volatility is captured by two broad measures: Implied and Realized volatility. Realized volatility differs from implied volatility.  While implied volatility is a forward-looking measure, realized volatility is historical or backward looking. Implied volatility answers the question, what is the expected volatility of the market in so and so time while realized volatility answers the question, what was or is the actual market volatility in so and so period. While realized volatility is based on the actual movement of an underlying, implied volatility is based on a value derived from associated options prices.  Realized volatility measures real risk while implied volatility measures anticipated risk.  Indices that measure volatility abound the world over especially in more advanced markets. The Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE)’s VIX, otherwise called the fear gauge, measures implied volatility in the US market while India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices in India and is meant to measure implied volatility in Indian stock market. In the UK, implied volatility is measured with the FTSE IVI and is based on the index’s underlying option prices. In abundance also are realized volatility measures in more advanced markets like those calculated by S&P Dow Jones.

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Currently, there is no index that measures implied or realized volatilities of the Nigerian stock market. The absence of an implied volatility measure is understandable as such is derivable from options and options are nonexistent in the Nigerian market. Realized volatility on the other hand, is derivable from historical data. To fill this gap, analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics have come up with a Realized Volatility Index for the Nigerian Market. The index is a one-month look back volatility measure of the NSE All Share index, (hereinafter called the underlying index). It assumes a 21-day monthly trading period and multiplies the result by 100 to reflect the index as a percentage. The index is calculated daily and for all the trading dates that its underlying index (ASI) is calculated. The index has been calculated from 1998 to present and gives a bird’s eye view of the most and least volatile periods of the Nigerian stock market.

 

Comparatively speaking, the S&P 500 1-month realized index as at November 22, 2017 was 5.85, down from 5.87 the previous day while the Quantitative Financial Analytics (QFA) Nigeria All Share Index realized volatility index for corresponding period was 6.45, down from 6.55 the previous day. Now, it is easy to talk about market volatility in Nigeria with some specifics and ability to compare with other markets and periods, at least in realized terms.

Quantitative Financial Analytics continues to add value to the Nigerian market with its many analytics. It will be recalled that not long above, it rolled out its Fixed Income Analytics Report, which is a report with robust data and information on sovereign and corporate bonds trading in the Nigerian market.

For more information on the index and other reports, please contact us at [email protected]

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Uchenna Ndimele is the President of Quantitative Financial Analytics Ltd. MutualfundsAfrica.com and mutualfundsnigeria.com (both Quantitative Financial Analytics company website) is a leader in supplying mutual fund information, analysis, and commentary on African mutual funds. We provide reliable fund data; and ratings information that will add value to fund managers, the media, individual investors and investment clubs.

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Companies

Dangote Cement to extend clinker export to other African countries 

Dangote is on course to sell more clinker across West Africa and commence shipment to Central Africa in H2 2020. 

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Dangote Cement Plc. appoints Ms. Berlina Moroole as non-Executive Director

The Management of Africa’s largest cement producer, Dangote Cement Plc (DCP), disclosed during a virtual event yesterday, that the cement producer is set to commence clinker export to other African countries within the next few weeks. 

The Acting Group CFO, Guillaume Moyen, made this known in his presentation at the joint virtual event with NSE, tagged “Facts Behind the Figures and Sustainability report’’ on Wednesday24th September, 2020. 

Backstory: In its half-year report, the Management of Dangote disclosed that on 12 June 2020, the maiden shipment of 27.8Kt of clinker from Nigeria to Senegal left the Apapa Export Terminal. 

READ: Dangote Cement’s N100 billion CP admitted on FMDQ Securities Exchange

The Management reiterated that the company is on course to sell more clinker across West Africa, and commence shipment to Central Africa in H2 2020. As it is in line with the Group’s vision of making West and Central Africa, cement and clinker independent, with Nigeria the main export hub. 

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The absence of limestone in much of West Africa, especially those in the coastal states, forces those countries to import bulk cement and clinker from Asia and Europe, and this is quite expensive. 

READ: BUA Cement Plc posts impressive unaudited H1, 2020 financial results

However, Dangote Cement plans an exporttoimport strategypositioning Nigeria as the main export hub of the continent, in a bid to serve West and Central Africa countries from Nigerian factories, making the region cement and clinker independent. 

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This is consistent with the Group’s vision of cementing Africa’s economic independence, as this would lead to lower clinker cost for pan-African operations, due to the proximity of Nigeria to these countries, as clinker landing cost will be cheaper. 

READ: Nigerian billionaires lose billions amid COVID-19 pandemic

The Management emphasized that this is possible, as Nigeria can serve a potential market of 15 countries, with over 350 million people, given the county’s relative abundance of quality limestone, especially in key Southern regions. 

It is important to note that DCP’s clinker volume, according to figures contained in its H1 2020 results, has increased to 60Kt from 12kt in H1 2019, which translates to 400% increase. 

The benefits of DCP’s export strategy 

It is noteworthy that the innovative strategy of Dangote Cement Plc is expected to; 

  • Cement Africa’s economic independence, and contribute to the improvement of continental, regional, and intra-regional trade, as the company seeks to make regional and continental free trade agreement a reality. 
  • Ensure that the increase in production due to exports, leads to increase in capacity utilization in the Nigerian operation, and in turn, reduces fixed cost per tonnes 
  • Increase foreign revenue exchange for the Nigerian operation, and offset foreign exchange risks. 
  • Reduce clinker landing cost, by leveraging on the proximity of Nigeria to other African countries. 

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Companies

Fidelity Bank to raise N50 billion in bonds in Q4 to refinance existing debts

The new issue will be made to redeem the existing N30 billion bond which was issued at 16.48%.

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Fidelity Bank Plc ,CEO Nnamdi Okonkwo, Fidelity Bank Plc growth plan, SMEs funding

One of Nigeria’s second-tier commercial banks, Fidelity Bank Plc, has concluded plans to issue up to N50 billion ($131.3 million) in local bonds by the fourth quarter of 2020, in order to refinance existing debts as the yields drop.

The disclosure was made by the Chief Operations and Information Officer, Gbolahan Joshua, during an analyst call on Tuesday, September 8, 2020.

The crash of crude oil price globally, which was triggered by the novel coronavirus pandemic, has led to a decline in bond yields on the local debt market. This has made foreign investors to dump their local assets, leaving excess liquidity in the money market. This has also put a lot of pressure on the foreign exchange market as they look for dollars to repatriate their funds.

READ: Guinness Nigeria finding it hard to refinance its loans due to dollar scarcity

The Fidelity Bank top executive disclosed that the new issue will be made to redeem the existing N30 billion bond which was issued at 16.48%.

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The global economic situation has seen yields in the debt market drop from as high as 18% about 3 years ago to less than 5% for the one-year treasury bill.

READ: GTBank, Zenith Bank, UBA record losses, investors down by N12.2 billion

Fidelity Bank had revealed that it expected to see a 15% drop in profit this year when compared to 2019 result due to the coronavirus pandemic. Its profit after tax increased by 21.9% to N12 billion for the half-year 2020.

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The second-tier bank also disclosed that its income declined in the second quarter due to a downward review of lending rates on loans as a result of the economic downturn.

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Companies

Heineken buys more units of Nigerian Breweries Plc

The Dutch firm has invested N276 million in NB since August, to increase its stake in the Brewer by 0.10%.

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Heineken scoops more Nigerian Breweries shares in insider disclosure

The major shareholder of the largest brewer in Nigeria, Heineken Brouwerijen B.V, has increased its stake in Nigerian Breweries, with the purchase of 233,110 additional units of Nigerian Breweries shares. This was disclosed by the company in a notification sent to the Nigerian Stock Exchange, which was seen by Nairametrics.

According to the notification, which was signed by the Company’s Secretary, Uaboi G. Agbebaku, the purchase was made on the bourse over two transactions on the 2nd and 3rd of September.

This disclosure is a regulatory requirement that must be reported to the Nigerian Stock Exchange, especially when a major shareholder or director of a publicly quoted company purchases shares in the company they own.

READ: GTBank revenue for H1, 2020 rises to N225.14 billion

The analysis of these transactions indicates that the purchase consideration for the 233,110 additional units of Nigeria Breweries shares at an average price of N39.94 is put at N9.3 million.

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This purchase and previous purchases further cement Heineken Brouwerijen B.V’s status as a major shareholder; the company has accumulated a total of 7,720,236 since 30th June.

READ: Vitafoam’s 2020 oncourse to make light–work of 2019

As of June 30th, when Nigerian Breweries released its Half-year financial results and reviewed its shareholding pattern, the company had exactly 7,996,902,051 outstanding shares, with Heineken Brouwerijen B.V being the majority shareholder with 3,019,363,804 units, which amount to 37.76% of the total shares of the company outstanding. 

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Hence, with the current purchase of 233,110 additional units, and previous purchases in August and September 1, which amount to 7,487,126 units, Heineken’s ownership percentage of Nigeria Breweries is now put at 37.85%.

Insider transactions, both sales and purchases, are often an indication of how shareholders perceive a company’s valuation. It could also mean a possible capital raise or that the majority shareholders are strengthening their existing holdings.

READ: Heineken scoops more Nigerian Breweries shares in insider disclosure

In like manners, the purchase of the shares of Nigerian Breweries by Heineken and other majority shareholder has mopped up stray volumes on the bourse, and pushed the stock price higher by 29% or N9, from N31 it closed at on the 3rd of August to its current value of N40 with 38.2x earnings.

About the company

Nigerian breweries is the largest brewing company in Nigeria. It engages in the brewing and marketing of lager beer, stout and non-alcoholic malt drinks, and the bottling of the Schweppes range of soft drinks and Crush Orange. Its brands include Star, Gulder, Legend, Heineken, Maltina, Amstel Malta, Fayrouz, Climax, Goldberg, Malta Gold, and Life. These products are mainly sold in Nigeria and other neighbouring countries.

READ: Flour Mills and its diverse challenges

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Key takes on NB’s financials

Nigerian Breweries was affected by the disruption in the global and domestic demand and supply chain, as profit after tax of the largest brewer dropped by as much as 58%, at the back of the adverse impact of the sharp contraction in economic activities.

The knock-on effect of the COVID-19 lockdown, which affected the trade segment of the business, affected the company sales and this triggered the 11% drop in revenue in the first half of the year.

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