2016 is one year a lot of Nigerians are probably not looking forward to. The current government also believes things are not likely to be better than 2015 telling everyone who cares to listen that sacrifices will have to be made. So just what are we to expect next year? Research company SBM Intels have put together a compilation of their economic and political outlook for 2016. We have summarized the gloomy part of the outlook and we advise that you turn away at this point if you are do not react kindly to pessimism.
2016 Political and economic outlook
- Consistent and sustainable efforts at resettling 2.5 million people displaced across Nigeria.
- Boko Haram will be dislodged from all their bases in the North-East.
- More Boko Haram attacks, most of them hit and run, will originate from Chad and the Diffa region of Niger Republic.
- There will be an escalation of the conflict in the Middle Belt.
- The Shi’a problem will escalate, but will not get to become a full-blown insurgency.
- There will be a renewal of militancy in the Niger Delta which will lead to an increase in piracy off of the Gulf of Guinea, and kidnapping in South-Eastern Nigeria.
- The economy will affect the police, leading to a worse security situation.
- Crude oil prices will not rise, and Iran’s re-entry into the market will mean a reduction in Nigeria’s earnings.
- The FG will end fuel subsidies and increase taxation. This will lead to a backlash from Nigerians.
- The Naira will be devalued officially. It will fall at least 20% in Q1.
- State revenues will take a hit, and the states will find it harder to borrow from the capital market.
- More states will owe more salaries, and will eventually be forced to reduce their work forces.
- The states will come into conflict with organised labour. 2016 will be a year of industrial action.
- Lagos, Abuja, Jos, Bauchi, Gombe and Kano will absorb more migrants, and become more crowded.
- President Buhari’s popularity will take a big hit in all the geopolitical zones except the North-West.
You can get the full report here
