This week we make a significant change to the list of our stock picks despite the stocks in our list remaining the same. [upme_private]The significant change is with Julius Berger Plc. In our prior list we attributed a fair valuation of N133 to Julius Berger Plc. However, I revise our valuation downwards after I changed our earnings forecast for the company.
I placed a CAGR of 15% its profits from a bullish 25%. The 25% we used was based on the last 5-3 years average CAGR of its EPS however, we do not for now think that projection will hold sway looking at the companies current results and projected 9 months result. Whilst I don’t like to value using short-term results, you have to take that into consideration as you consider all the information available. So, we decided to settle with a more conservative 15%. Why 15%? EPS has risen by 2% from 2012 to 2013 and this year may not be any different. The company also projects a lower profitability growth for the Q3 result further strengthening my decision to revise profitability. So here is our revised list;
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This list and its fair valuation can change as new information become available. Do not take this as a stock recommendation of any kind. Always, conduct you own independent evaluation before you buy, sell or hold. [/upme_private]
All your picks beats your imagination as stocks continues dipping with situations on the ground. But let me ask you; what’s the way forward,as per medium to long term stocks investment in Nigeria? Again it seems the causes of these problem time frame are unpredictable?