![[Dexter on Custom Street] Adventures of Retail Investor](https://nairametrics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Dex-Pix.jpg)
So Forte Oil Plc showed up on my radar screen a couple of days before the June 4th bounce off the new support level established between NGN 152.00 and NGN 154.86. The bounce finally occurred and the price action has reversed for an uptrend. Now, we have the second bottom of a potential double bottom formation being processed by the mood variations of traders, investors and speculators. I’ve qualified the trend reversal formation as ‘potential’ because a critical neckline needs to be broken to confirm the chart formation.
As always, this is not a BUY or SELL instruction, investment advice or prophecy. I’m just writing what I deduced from some boring graphs. You are the CEO of your portfolio. Now, onto more interesting things…
–Caitlyn, the Black Swan & The Turkey Problem–
So your dad, your father, turns 65 and calls a family meeting informing young and old of his lifelong dissatisfaction with his gender, the emotional turmoil it has caused him and his resolve to be emancipated (a word we associated with 19th century women empowerment movements) and transformed into a woman. Your father. At 65.
In his book, the Problems of Philosophy (1912), Bertrand Russell developed the story of a chicken whose owner has fed throughout its life, making the chicken comfortable and relaxed. Nassim N. Taleb expands this story using a turkey instead. The turkey gets quite comfy and fat, only to be butchered for thanksgiving in November.
Evaluate your exposures on Customs Street. As much as it depends on you, ensure you don’t wake up to your 50 kobo per share stocks becoming 1 kobo per share in the medium term. Consider that the business of surprise, as established above, is asymmetrical; your hypothetical father and the butcher were NOT surprised by the unfolding events.
May the odds be ever in thy favour…
