Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production rose by 3.4% to 1.352 million barrels in August according to the latest data published by OPEC.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its monthly oil market report for August reports that Nigeria’s crude oil production increased by 45 thousand barrels from 1.307 million barrels in July daily to the current figure.
The figure above is based on direct communication with Nigerian authorities on crude oil production for the month.
According to secondary sources, Nigeria’s average crude oil production in August stood at 1.448 million barrels per day- an increase of 57 thousand daily when compared to 1.391 million daily posted in the previous month.
Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer by a wider margin, as Libya, its closest competitor, faced production challenges due to the shutdown of major oil fields during the month.
Oil demand and average prices in August
The report indicates that the oil cartel has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd), down from the earlier projection of 2.11 million bpd.
- It also lowered its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd.
- In August, oil prices declined across the board, as reflected in the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), which dropped by $6.02, or 7.1%, to an average of $78.41 per barrel. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $5.00, or 6.0%, to $78.88 per barrel.
- Similarly, the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by $5.05, or 6.3%, averaging $75.43 per barrel, while the DME Oman front-month contract declined by $5.83, or 7.0%, settling at $77.54 per barrel.
- The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened by 5¢ to $3.45 per barrel.
Crude oil supply projection for 2024 and 2025
Oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries is projected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, consistent with last month’s assessment.
- The primary drivers of this growth are expected to be the US, Canada, and Brazil. The forecast for non-OPEC+ liquids supply growth in 2025 remains unchanged at 1.1 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway leading the increase.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) are expected to grow by approximately 0.1 mb/d, reaching an average of 8.3 mb/d in 2024, followed by an increase of around 60 tb/d to 8.4 mb/d in 2025.
- In August, crude oil production from countries involved in the DoC fell by 304 tb/d compared to the previous month, averaging around 40.66 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
