CBN offers N450 billion today, second NTB auction of Q4 issuance

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO), is offering N450 billion in Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) at the primary market auction holding today, Wednesday, October 14, 2026, marking the second auction of the fourth quarter.

According to the auction circular, the offer comprises N50 billion each in 91-day and 182-day bills and N350 billion in 364-day bills, with settlement scheduled for Thursday, October 15.

The one-year tenor accounts for 77.78% of the offer, reflecting its dominant allocation in the government’s Q4 Treasury bill issuance programme.

One-Year Bills dominate N450 billion offer:

The N450 billion auction is the smallest planned offer in the Q4 2026 NTB issuance calendar analysed by Nairametrics. It is also below the N500 billion that represented the smallest single auction offer in the third-quarter programme.

Only N80.84 billion in Treasury bills is scheduled to mature at settlement on October 15, making the advertised offer approximately 5.57 times the maturing amount.

• The 91-day tenor has an offer size of N50 billion.
• The 182-day tenor also has an offer size of N50 billion.
• The 364-day tenor accounts for N350 billion, representing 77.78% of the total offer.

Full allotment of the advertised N450 billion would imply a net liquidity withdrawal of approximately N369.16 billion after accounting for maturities.

The figures indicate that the government is offering substantially more Treasury bills than the amount scheduled to mature at the auction’s settlement.

However, the advertised offer is not the final allotment, and the actual liquidity effect will depend on the amount sold. Recent auctions have also shown that allotments can exceed the initial offer size, meaning the eventual withdrawal could differ from the amount implied by the calendar.

One-Year Treasury Bill demand surges:

Demand for the 364-day Treasury bill remained strong at the quarter’s opening auction on October 7, when the DMO allotted N968.47 billion against a N900 billion offer. The one-year stop rate declined to 15.85%, from 15.89% at the preceding auction.

• The four-basis-point decline placed the 364-day stop rate 185 basis points below its third-quarter peak of 17.70%, recorded on July 8.
• Investors submitted N1.683 trillion in bids for the 364-day bill against an advertised offer of N700 billion, representing approximately 2.4 times the offer.
• The 91-day bill attracted N39.42 billion in subscriptions against N100 billion offered, with N38.55 billion allotted at an unchanged 15.50% stop rate.
• Combined bids for the 91-day and 182-day bills stood at N86.29 billion against N200 billion offered.
• With N705.73 billion in maturities at settlement, the N968.47 billion allotment implied a net liquidity withdrawal of N262.74 billion.

The figures show a clear difference in investor demand across the three tenors, with the one-year instrument attracting the strongest subscriptions.

Analysts expect demand for longer-duration naira assets to remain firm, although the direction of stop rates depends on market conditions today. Analysts at AAG Capital Limited said ample liquidity could support speculative funding at the auction but noted that the recent bond market sell-off could place upward pressure on sovereign borrowing rates.

Q4 Treasury Bill Programme frontloaded:

As stated on the Q4 calendar, the October issuance programme is concentrated around three scheduled auctions, with N2.15 trillion in planned offers during the month. These comprise N900 billion on October 7, N450 billion on October 14 and N800 billion scheduled for October 28. The calendar contains no auction offer for October 21, when N392.79 billion in Treasury bills is expected to mature.

Total Q4 Treasury bill offers are projected at N5.40 trillion against approximately N5.429 trillion in maturities.

However, analysts at AAG Capital Limited stated that the Q4 plan was adjusted to “up to N5.75 trillion,” which Nairametrics could not verify at the time filing this report.

• The 364-day tenor accounts for N4.10 trillion, or 75.93% of the quarter’s planned offers.
• In Q3, the CBN raised N8.14 trillion against a planned N5.80 trillion, with the 364-day tenor driving most allotments.
• The market is also awaiting the next inflation data from the statistics office on Friday.
• The Q4 calendar therefore maintains a strong emphasis on one-year Treasury bills. Actual allotments could differ from the issuance calendar, as demonstrated by the October 7 auction.

Investors can access NTBs through banks and licensed investment platforms subject to their respective minimum bid requirements, while the auction will provide another indication of investor demand across tenors and whether its 15.89% stop rate for the one-year tenor declines further or reverses.