Nigeria’s oil losses plunge from 97% to 2% under Tinubu, Elumelu says

Tony Elumelu has said Nigeria’s oil production losses have fallen sharply from 97% before President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023 to 2% as of June 2026.

Elumelu made the disclosure while addressing President Tinubu in a video circulating on social media, where he spoke about developments in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry over the past two years.

Elumelu, who is an investor in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector and said his operations currently produce more than 58,000 barrels of oil daily, said monthly fiscalisation showed that 98% of oil production was accounted for in June, leaving a 2% loss.

What he’s saying

Elumelu recalled that before Tinubu became President in 2023, he had publicly raised concerns about the scale of losses in Nigeria’s oil industry, including through social media.

He said the country was losing as much as 97% of its oil production at the time, with monthly fiscalisation showing that only 2% of production was lost in June.

• “Mr. President, every month, we do what is called fiscalisation. Last month, for the month of June, and let’s let Nigeria know this, we got 98%. So, 2% loss. It’s significant.”

Elumelu said developments in the oil industry may not immediately be visible to the public, noting that it takes time for people to understand changes taking place in the sector.

He also stressed the importance of power and energy to Nigeria’s economic development, arguing that the country’s large youth population and energy could drive economic growth if the right framework is established.

In December 2025, Heirs Energies and Heirs Holdings acquired 120.4 million shares in Seplat Energy from Maurel & Prom, giving the two companies a combined 20.07% stake and making the Heirs Group Seplat’s largest shareholder. Elumelu is the ultimate beneficial owner of the Heirs Group.

Get up to speed

Elumelu had raised similar concerns about crude oil theft in March 2022, when he said Nigeria was losing more than 95% of some oil production to thieves.

At the time, he cited the Bonny Terminal, which he said should have been receiving more than 200,000 barrels of crude daily but was receiving fewer than 3,000 barrels, a situation that contributed to Shell declaring force majeure. Contemporary reports also linked Elumelu’s comments to the severe disruption of production through oil pipelines.

• “How can we be losing over 95% of oil production to thieves? Look at the Bonny Terminal that should be receiving over 200k barrels of crude oil daily, instead it receives less than 3,000 barrels, leading the operator Shell to declare force majeure,” he said at the time.

Elumelu argued at the time that Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC production quota was not primarily caused by inadequate investment in the upstream sector, but by crude oil theft.

The comments came amid a period of severe disruption to Nigeria’s oil production, with industry operators reporting extensive pipeline vandalism and crude theft.

What you should know

Nigeria is currently meeting its OPEC crude oil production quota, although output remains below the production level assumed in the country’s 2026 budget.

• The 2026 Federal Government budget is based on crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, alongside an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
• By comparison, Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.505 million barrels per day in July 2026, according to OPEC data. This was 5,000 barrels per day above Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.50 million bpd and marked the third consecutive month in which the country exceeded its quota.
• Nigeria produced 1.53 million bpd in May and 1.55 million bpd in June, before output moderated to 1.505 million bpd in July.
• However, July’s output was still about 335,000 barrels per day below the 1.84 million bpd production assumption underpinning the 2026 budget.

The improvement in crude production has occurred alongside continued efforts by security agencies to tackle oil theft and illegal refining.

Earlier on Sunday, Nairametrics reported that the Nigerian Navy, under Operation DELTA SENTINEL, dismantled three illegal refining sites in the Okolomade and Ogbogolo areas of Rivers State and recovered approximately 91,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil.

The operation, according to the Navy, forms part of ongoing efforts to disrupt illegal oil activities and protect crude oil production infrastructure in the Niger Delta.