Nigeria’s foreign exchange market recorded a decisive structural shift in 2025, with autonomous sources — private capital flows outside the CBN’s direct control — accounting for 64.94% of total FX inflows during the year.
The figures are contained in the Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) report covering Nigeria’s FX market performance for the full year 2025, which also shows that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s own FX sales staged a sharp 126.37% rebound to $8.94 billion after collapsing to a multi-year low of $3.95 billion in 2024.
Autonomous inflows surged to $72.91 billion in 2025, up from $59.29 billion in 2024 and $41.80 billion in 2023, reflecting a near-doubling of private-sector dollar flows in just two years.
Meanwhile, total FX inflows into the Nigerian economy climbed to $112.27 billion in 2025, compared with $99.44 billion in 2024 and $65.76 billion in 2023. Net flow through the economy also strengthened, rising from $58.84 billion in 2024 to $66.67 billion in 2025.
Together, the data paint a picture of an FX market that is not only recovering but undergoing a fundamental transformation — one in which the private sector, rather than the central bank, is increasingly setting the pace of dollar supply.
What the data is saying
The FMDA data reveals a market in which rising autonomous inflows are progressively displacing CBN-supplied liquidity as the primary driver of FX availability, even as the apex bank continues to play a stabilising role.
- Autonomous sources accounted for 36.44% of total inflows in 2023, rising to 59.62% in 2024, and climbing further to 64.94% in 2025.
- CBN inflows declined marginally from $40.15 billion in 2024 to $39.36 billion in 2025, even as autonomous inflows surged by $13.62 billion over the same period.
- CBN FX sales stood at $9.9 billion in 2023, fell sharply by 60.09% to $3.95 billion in 2024, before recovering by 126.37% to $8.94 billion in 2025.
- CBN outflows rose slightly from $32.16 billion in 2024 to $32.79 billion in 2025, while autonomous outflows grew from $8.44 billion to $12.80 billion, consistent with broader market participation.
- Net flow through the Nigerian economy rose from $33.97 billion in 2023 to $58.84 billion in 2024 and further to $66.67 billion in 2025.
The expanding share of autonomous flows suggests that remittances, portfolio investments, non-oil export proceeds, and financial services capital are now exerting a structural influence on Nigeria’s FX liquidity.
More insights:
Total FX utilisation reached $47.17 billion in 2025, driven by a dramatic surge in invisible-related transactions and sustained industrial-sector demand. The data reveal a significant compositional shift in how Nigeria consumes its foreign exchange.
- Invisible-related FX utilisation surged to $27.27 billion in 2025 from $11.10 billion in 2024, with financial services alone accounting for $21.22 billion.
- Total import-related FX demand rose more moderately, from $15.54 billion in 2024 to $19.90 billion in 2025.
- The industrial sector remained the largest merchandise-related source of demand at $8.43 billion, up from $7.96 billion in 2024.
- Oil-sector FX demand nearly doubled, from $2.26 billion in 2024 to $4.98 billion in 2025.
- Business services demand leapt from $702.38 million to $3.48 billion, while educational services demand fell sharply from $396.40 million in 2023 to just $55.16 million in 2025.
The data indicates that invisible transactions — services, financial flows, and cross-border payments — have now eclipsed merchandise imports as the dominant driver of FX demand in Nigeria.
Expert views:
Market analysts say the rebound in autonomous inflows and the recovery in CBN FX sales reflect the cumulative impact of Nigeria’s macroeconomic reform programme, but caution that the gains are yet to filter through to the broader economy.
- Dr. Muda Yusuf, Convener of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said the data pointed unambiguously to the impact of reform.
- “The autonomous inflows are driven by the reform. Remittances from the diaspora, inflows from foreign portfolio investors, non-oil export proceeds — all manner of things outside the traditional sources of our forex. This reflects the fact that the reform has positioned the economy to attract those inflows,” he said.
On the rebound in CBN FX sales, Yusuf was careful to place the development in proper context.
- “It is not necessarily because the CBN has significantly increased its intervention. A lot of inflows are coming in. Those are not CBN funds. In fact, there was a time the CBN was even buying forex on the market because of the liquidity. The bigger factor is the supply side — the fact that autonomous inflows have increased significantly,” he said.
The erstwhile Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) also addressed the surge in invisible-related demand, noting that greater caution was needed before drawing conclusions.
- “Invisible covers a lot of things. When you are paying foreign debt, it is a financial services transaction. When airlines come to Nigeria, when shipping companies operate here, when expatriates come into oil and gas and tech — all of these services have to be paid for in foreign currency. There is a lot of international transaction going on now because of the confidence the reform has restored. That is what I think is behind that increase,” he explained.
Mr. Charles Fakrogha, CEO of ECL Asset Management, said the recovery in both FX sales and autonomous inflows was consistent with what the capital market was also signalling.
- “The kind of activity we are seeing from the FX market shows there are a lot of activities in terms of imports and exports. Most of these companies import raw materials, some export finished products — all of this will account for the increase we are seeing,” he said.
However, Fakrogha expressed concern about the dominance of financial services in FX utilisation.
- “Financial services — you have seen a lot of activities. We have seen so many financial institutions springing up. And yet the real sector is not being carried along. When it is tough for financial services to give out loans and recover them, what happens? They go to the treasury bills market — safe investment. And the real sector suffers. These are the structural imbalances in the economy that we are seeing,” he noted.
On the role of exchange rate unification in driving inflows, Fakrogha was emphatic.
- “That is the fundamental of it. The unification has closed the gap for unnecessary speculation. The CBN has done quite a lot in terms of maintaining stability. If not for that unification, the dollar-naira rate would have gone beyond what we are seeing,” he said.
Mr. Aruna Kebira, CEO of Globalview Capital, argued that improved regulation and recapitalisation of financial institutions had been equally pivotal in attracting capital inflows.
- “There is no direct investor that would not like to do business with a well-capitalised stockbroking firm. The regulation is so strong. All the banks are recapitalised, insurance companies are in the process of recapitalisation, and PFAs are also being recapitalised. Things have actually opened up,” he said.
- “Do you know that Nigerians in diaspora now have serious confidence in the Nigerian stock market? The movement from 58,000 to 250,000 points — it is not magic. Money is coming in. It is for investment,” said Kebira.
According to him, there is a growing confidence of diaspora investors as a structural source of autonomous inflows, stressing that several of them have already set aside funds for investing in upcoming Dangote Refinery’s Initial Public Offer (IPO).
What you should know
The recovery in FX sales and the expansion in autonomous inflows must be understood against the backdrop of Nigeria’s sweeping macroeconomic reforms, which have realigned the country’s exchange rate framework and gradually improved the business environment for both domestic and foreign investors.
- Nigeria unified its multiple exchange rate windows in 2023, removing the arbitrage opportunities that previously distorted FX flows and suppressed formal market participation.
- The sharp decline in educational services FX demand — from $396.40 million in 2023 to just $55.16 million in 2025 — reflects the increased cost of overseas education following naira depreciation.
- Dr. Yusuf described the increased cost of overseas education as ultimately positive, noting it is “incentivising people to look inwards” and spurring investment in domestic educational institutions.
- The surge in financial services FX demand to $21.22 billion raises questions about the precise composition of those flows, with analysts calling for greater transparency and closer regulatory scrutiny by the CBN.
- Strong growth in portfolio inflows, while boosting supply-side liquidity, also introduces refinancing risk, as hot money remains sensitive to shifts in global interest rates and investor sentiment.
- The industrial sector’s moderate growth in FX demand — despite the broader market recovery — points to persistent structural challenges in manufacturing, including high energy costs, infrastructure gaps, and constrained credit access.
As Nigeria’s FX market continues to evolve, the central question for policymakers and investors alike is whether the gains recorded in 2025 — and particularly the expanding share of autonomous inflows can be consolidated into a durable, structurally grounded improvement in dollar liquidity.
