Analysts at CardinalStone have given MTN Nigeria Communications Plc a fresh Buy rating, projecting an 18.1% potential increase based on current market trends and expected operational performance.
In their report, “MTNN: Structural Data Demand Driven Growth,” they note that rising data usage is supporting revenue growth, even amid recent price adjustments in telecom services.
According to the analysts, total industry data consumption reached 1.39 million terabytes in 2025, up from 973,455.35 terabytes in 2024, showing steady demand growth across the sector.
Based on this trend, alongside strong 2025 financials, MTN’s share price is projected to rise from N790 to N933.33 on the Nigerian Exchange, with an expected dividend of N60.78 per share for FY2026.
What the analysts are saying:
Analysts say MTN Nigeria Communications Plc grew its data business in FY2025, with average data usage per subscriber rising 20% and data subscribers increasing 11.6% to 53.2 million despite higher prices.
- They linked this growth to ongoing network investment and Nigeria’s rising use of digital services, including fintech apps, e-commerce platforms, and remote-work tools.
- For 2026, they expect data usage to continue rising as MTN expands 4G coverage to about 84.6% of the population, with average usage potentially growing 25% to 16.8GB/subscriber and data revenue 47.2% year-on-year.
Smartphone penetration rose from 45.9% in 2020 to 66.1% in 2025, while mobile internet users increased by about 8.7 million between 2024 and 2025, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission, supporting sustained growth.
- Looking ahead, they noted that the GSMA projects Nigeria could add about 32 million mobile internet subscribers by 2030, while MTN’s voice segment is expected to grow moderately, with revenue rising around 10% to N1.8 trillion in 2026.
In February 2026, MTN Group announced a $6.2 billion deal to fully acquire IHS Towers, a major provider with over 15,000 sites in Nigeria. According to CardinalStone, the deal gives MTN Group full control of IHS Towers, which could help manage tower lease costs.
Get up to speed
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc reported a pre-tax profit of N1.7 trillion for 2025, compared with a N550.3 billion loss in 2024, marking a return to profitability after large foreign-exchange losses.
- Service revenue rose 55.1% to N5.17 trillion, driven mainly by data growth, with data revenue increasing 74.5% to N2.78 trillion as data traffic expanded and active users reached 53.2 million.
- Voice revenue grew 42.1% to N1.85 trillion, while fintech revenue rose 79.7% to N191.3 billion, supported by higher interest income and growth in active wallets to 3.7 million.
Foreign exchange movements also contributed, with the company recording a N90.3 billion gain compared with a N925.4 billion loss in 2024, after settling letters of credit and reducing dollar exposure.
Following the results, the board proposed a final dividend of N15 per share, bringing total dividends for 2025 to N20 per unit for shareholders of MTN Nigeria Communications Plc.
What to know
Shares of MTN Nigeria Communications Plc rose 155% in 2025 and have continued rising into 2026, up over 54% as of market close on 9 March 2026.
- Market confidence is likely growing alongside the company’s strong performance, with CEO Karl Toriola calling 2025 a turning point for MTN Nigeria.
- CardinalStone forecasts earnings per share of N80.84, supported by 30.4% revenue growth, higher margins, and lower finance costs.
- This EPS supports an expected dividend of N60.78 per share, giving a dividend yield of 7.7% at the current market price.
