Oil marketers say the resumption of petrol and diesel import licences by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is aimed at closing supply gaps and preventing fuel scarcity.
They explained that the move is designed to make up for shortfalls as local refineries are currently unable to meet Nigeria’s total domestic petroleum needs.
According to the marketers, the decision is not targeted at frustrating the Dangote Petroleum Refinery but rather reflects supply realities, especially as the refinery undergoes a major expansion that has affected its ability to fully meet local demand.
The marketers noted that what matters most in the downstream market is the availability and predictability of supply.
They argued that a controlled and transparently managed import window helps keep the market liquid while domestic refineries scale up and stabilise operations.
What they are saying
Industry stakeholders say importation has become necessary because the Dangote Refinery is still in an expansion phase and cannot yet meet national demand consistently.
- “It is a serious concern. The truth of the matter is that this Dangote upgrade will last for three years, to upgrade this plant from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day,” an energy expert and major downstream stakeholder who wished to remain anonymous told Nairametrics.
- “The truth is that Dangote is not producing at the moment; he’s getting semi-finished stock and blending to make a finished stock. So, until he’s done with the expansion, he cannot boast that he can supply all the needs of Nigeria.”
- “If they don’t complement this with further importation, Nigeria will run out of stock and that will bring scarcity. This import licensing is timely and strategic.”
- “If the Federal Government resumes import licences, it should be seen as a gap-management decision, not a reversal of the domestic refining policy. The downstream market must never be allowed to run dry,” oil marketer Ibrahim Gambo said.
The marketers stressed that importation, in this context, is a stabilisation tool to prevent shortages, price spikes, and supply disruptions.
Flashback
Speculation about renewed fuel importation emerged following reports that Nigeria could resume issuing petrol and diesel import permits as early as mid-February 2026.
These reports suggested a shift in supply dynamics and raised concerns about potential implications for the Dangote Refinery.
The planned approvals would mark the first import licences issued in 2026.
Imports had earlier been restricted to volumes required to cover shortfalls in domestic refinery output.
The delay in issuing licences was linked partly to leadership changes at the NMDPRA, following the exit of its former chief executive, Farouk Ahmed, on December 17.
These developments signalled government concern about a possible tightening of fuel supply amid changing market conditions.
The renewed focus on importation has therefore been framed as a response to supply risks rather than a policy reversal.
More insights
Gambo explained that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption leaves little room for supply disruptions, regardless of the number of operating refineries.
He said demand does not pause while refineries resolve operational challenges.
- Fuel consumption is continuous and unforgiving, making immediate gap coverage essential.
- Maintenance downtime, logistics bottlenecks, or crude supply constraints can quickly translate into shortages.
- Importation acts as a buffer to ensure supply reliability when domestic output falls short.
- Meanwhile, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has rejected claims that it imports finished petrol, diesel, or jet fuel.
The refinery’s management says it imports only unfinished feedstocks that are processed locally into refined products.
According to the company, materials such as cracked gasoline, light cycle oil, and high-sulphur reformate require extensive local processing and cannot be used directly in vehicles.
What this means
The resumption of petrol importation underscores Nigeria’s continued reliance on foreign refined products, with implications for the economy and energy policy.
- Despite progress toward self-sufficiency through large-scale and modular refineries, import dependence places pressure on foreign exchange, contributes to currency depreciation, and fuels inflation.
- Import reliance runs counter to the long-term objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act.
- Coastal logistics associated with imports can add about N75 per litre to fuel costs.
- Higher logistics and foreign exchange costs ultimately translate into higher pump prices for consumers.
While importation may be unavoidable in the short term, the development highlights the urgency of stabilising domestic refining operations to reduce exposure to external shocks.
What you should know
Dangote Petroleum Refinery said in January 2026 that it was not shutting down for maintenance and continues to operate at full capacity.
- The refinery claims it supplies over 50 million litres of petrol daily to the Nigerian market.
- Management insists production remains stable and uninterrupted.
- The company has warned that reliance on coastal logistics could push pump prices to as high as N1,000 per litre if additional costs are passed on to consumers.
According to the refinery, although marketers are free to choose their evacuation methods, coastal logistics carries significant cost burdens that could undermine recent gains from local refining.
