Nigeria’s external reserves have crossed the $46 billion mark for the first time in about eight years, highlighting the steady accretion in reserve levels since 2025.
The development is based on the latest external reserves data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria dated January 22, 2026.
The reserve build-up signals stronger buffers for import cover and currency stability as the country heads into a pre-election year.
Data tracked by Nairametrics shows that Nigeria’s last recorded reserves were at this level on August 27, 2018, when they stood at $45.9 billion.
With reserves now at about $46 billion, the apex bank’s medium-term outlook of a $51 billion reserve position by the end of 2026 is increasingly coming into view.
What the data is saying
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows that Nigeria’s external reserves hit $46 billion as of January 22, 2026, the first time in roughly eight years.
The build-up reflects steady inflows and improved foreign exchange management since the FX reforms began.
- The data also suggests a notable turnaround from the volatility experienced during the early phase of the new forex regime.
- The reserves closed 2025 at about $45.5 billion, having opened the year at roughly $40.8 billion.
- At the same time last year, reserves had dipped below $40 billion, losing around $842 million as the new FX regime unfolded.
- In contrast, reserves have gained about $509 million in just 22 days in January 2026 and have been rising consistently since December 19, 2025.
- During the period, the official exchange rate stood at about N1,553 per dollar, while the parallel market traded near N1,645, creating a spread of over N100.
The data also shows that sustained reserve growth has coincided with a strengthening exchange rate, with the official market closing at about N1,421 per dollar and the parallel market at around N1,490.
Get up to speed
Nairametrics has consistently tracked Nigeria’s improving external position over recent months as FX reforms gained traction.
In December 2025, Nairametrics reported that reserves had climbed to $45 billion, representing a six-year high at the time.
Since then, the upward trend has continued into early 2026.
- External reserves opened in December 2025 at approximately $44.8 billion, indicating an increase of over $1 billion within weeks.
- Reliable sources suggest Nigeria’s net external reserves are now above $30 billion, although the CBN does not publish unaudited net reserve figures.
- Reports also indicate that the apex bank is planning a revamp of its framework for governing forex transactions in 2026, with changes expected within months.
- This could also impact forex reserves accretion and exchange rate stability.
- Reserve accretion has also been supported by increased repatriation of funds from the NNPC and exporters returning proceeds previously held offshore.
The improved FX environment has also encouraged businesses to convert dollars to naira, with forex-to-naira conversions estimated at $1 billion monthly in 2025.
Why this matters
Nigeria’s external reserve position is a key indicator of the country’s ability to defend the naira and meet its external obligations.
Stronger reserves typically improve confidence in the currency and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
This is particularly important as political activities intensify ahead of elections.
- External reserves support the country’s capacity to settle import bills and manage balance-of-payments pressures.
- Nairametrics estimates that at $46 billion, Nigeria’s reserves can cover about 15 months of goods imports, or roughly 10 months when services are included.
- Higher reserves have historically been associated with stronger and more stable exchange rates.
- However, concerns persist around dollarization, especially in sectors such as real estate, where transactions are increasingly denominated in foreign currency.
There are also apprehensions about potential FX pressure from election campaign spending later in the year, as political actors traditionally prefer dollar funding.
What you should know
The Central Bank of Nigeria has outlined an optimistic outlook for Nigeria’s external reserves in its latest economic report.
The apex bank expects reserve levels to continue rising in 2026, supported by both external inflows and domestic structural changes.
- The CBN projects external reserves of $51.04 billion in 2026, up from $45.01 billion in 2025.
- Expected inflows include higher oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and increased diaspora remittances.
- The Dangote refinery’s expansion to 700,000 barrels per day from 650,000 barrels per day in 2025, and ultimately to 1.4 million barrels per day in the medium term, is also expected to support reserve growth.
- Despite higher reserves, the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates widened to about 4.8 percent, approaching 5 percent.
Analysts warn that while reserve growth is positive, sustained FX stability will depend on narrowing exchange rate disparities and maintaining reform momentum.
