EnterpriseNGR has projected Nigeria’s inflation rate at 16.5% for 2026 as part of its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook.
The forecast, revealed during a press conference held on January 22, 2026, in collaboration with EY, delves into key trends and strategies aimed at driving sustainable growth in the country.
The outlook also offers insights into other major macroeconomic indicators and provides recommendations for addressing the challenges in the year ahead.
Other key projections for 2026:
- GDP Growth: Projected at 4.4%.
- Oil Production: Expected to stabilize at 1.5 mbpd.
- Foreign Reserves: Expected to rise to $51.04 billion.
- Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): Projected to remain at 27%.
What the report is saying
According to the report, in 2025, the global economic landscape was a mix of recovery and cautious optimism, though challenges remained.
As major economies slowly rebounded from the effects of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, emerging markets rose to the forefront, leading to global growth.
Global growth for 2025 was projected at 3.7%, with sub-Saharan Africa and emerging Asia driving the charge.
Countries like Nigeria, with their vast potential and growing sectors, played a pivotal role in this global momentum.
While the global economy showed signs of recovery, there were underlying issues. Inflation remained a key concern.
For many advanced economies, inflation had surged to unprecedented levels, affecting everything from consumer spending to central bank policies.
However, by the end of 2025, inflationary pressures were starting to ease in some regions. In the US, inflation was forecasted to stabilize, while China and the Eurozone also saw inflationary pressures reduce, giving these economies some breathing room to grow.
Despite this, the global economy remained fragile, with inflation still above desirable levels in many places.
For Nigeria, the report noted that despite these global headwinds, the economy showed moderate growth of 3.98% in 2025.
Nigeria’s performance, while positive, was still impacted by both global factors and domestic challenges, including inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and security issues.
However, the country’s resilience could be credited to reforms in key sectors like oil, agriculture, and services.
Nigeria’s oil production remained stable, and key financial reforms allowed for better capital mobilization.
The services sector, particularly ICT and trade, also continued to thrive, helping to offset some of the challenges faced in other parts of the economy.
As for 2026, the projections outlined in the report are cautiously optimistic, based on several key assumptions:
- Real GDP Growth: The report projects 4.4% GDP growth for 2026.
This is largely dependent on improved foreign exchange efficiency, private sector investments, and fiscal expansion.
Key drivers will include increased investment in refining infrastructure and the services sector, which is expected to continue its strong performance in ICT, finance, and logistics.
- Oil Production: The assumption here is that oil production will stabilize at 1.5 mbpd, buoyed by the operationalization of the Dangote refinery, which is expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports, easing some of the pressure on foreign exchange.
- Inflation: The report expects inflation to moderate to 16.5% in 2026, assuming agriculture reforms continue to improve food security and supply chain issues are addressed.
Key assumptions include government interventions that boost farm productivity and a reduction in post-harvest losses through reforms like NiPHaST (National Post-harvest Loss Reduction Strategy).
Additionally, foreign exchange stability is expected to lower imported inflation.
- Foreign Reserves: Nigeria’s foreign reserves are projected to rise to $51.04 billion, based on assumptions of stable oil prices, increased oil exports, and stronger capital inflows from foreign direct investments (FDI) and remittances.
- Monetary Policy: The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is expected to remain stable at 27% if inflation continues to moderate and the central bank’s interventions remain effective in managing inflation and maintaining exchange rate stability.
Why this matters
The 2026 projections point to a roadmap for Nigeria’s recovery and economic stability.
- For businesses and investors, these projections offer clarity on where the economy is headed and what key areas they should focus on.
- For policymakers, it highlights the critical reforms needed to foster growth and resilience.
- Ultimately, these projections are essential for making informed decisions, managing risks, and ensuring that Nigeria’s economy remains on a path to sustainable growth.
What you should know
EnterpriseNGR is a professional policy and advocacy group incorporated as a company limited by guarantee.
Its core mission is to advocate for and promote Nigeria’s Financial and Professional Services (FPS) sector. The goal is to transform Nigeria into Africa’s premier financial services hub.
As a member-led private sector group, EnterpriseNGR works towards creating an enabling policy environment that enhances the growth and competitiveness of the FPS sector.
Through its initiatives, it shapes policies aimed at fostering a stronger, more resilient, and globally competitive financial services industry in Nigeria.
The EnterpriseNGR 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook is a flagship thought-leadership publication developed in collaboration with EY.
It synthesizes macroeconomic data, policy analysis, and market insights to provide a comprehensive view of Nigeria’s economic trajectory, especially through the lens of its Financial and Professional Services (FPS) ecosystem.
