The International Monetary Fund has said Nigeria’s ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation measures are beginning to yield results, helping to lift the growth outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The assessment was made on Wednesday during the presentation of the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, where the Fund revised growth projections for the region upward and cited Nigeria among key economies where policy adjustments are starting to pay off.
According to the IMF, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is now projected at 4.4% in 2025, representing a 0.2 percentage-point upgrade from its previous forecast.
Growth projections for 2026 and 2027 were also revised upward to 4.6%, amounting to a cumulative 0.3 percentage-point increase compared with the October outlook.
What the IMF said
Explaining the revision, the IMF’s Research Department Division Chief, Deniz Igan, said the stronger outlook reflected favourable commodity prices and improving macroeconomic conditions in some of the region’s largest economies.
“Another reason is the macroeconomic stabilisation efforts that started paying off in some key economies like Ethiopia and Nigeria,” Igan said, adding that higher prices for commodities such as gold, copper and coffee had also supported growth across the region.
She noted that Nigeria’s stabilisation gains are helping to create a more predictable macroeconomic environment, alongside structural reforms in South Africa and easing global financial conditions that have reduced external borrowing costs for African economies.
The IMF said the regional outlook has also benefited from improved global financial conditions compared with late 2025, supporting capital flows and economic activity, even as risks remain elevated.
However, Igan warned that downside risks persist, particularly for low-income and fragile economies, citing the possibility of cuts to international development assistance and a renewed tightening of global financial conditions.
On the global economy, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said growth remains resilient despite trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty. He said global growth was revised upward to 3.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the October estimate.
Gourinchas added that global inflation is expected to continue easing, declining from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, although it will remain above central bank targets in many emerging and developing economies.
What you should know
- Nairametrics earlier reported that the International Monetary Fund raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4%, up from its earlier projection of 4.2%.
- The revised outlook was published in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook.
- The World Economic Outlook Update is one of two interim updates published annually by the IMF, with full editions released during its Spring and Annual Meetings.
- The adjustment reflects the Fund’s growing optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term prospects as reforms, fiscal coordination, and macroeconomic stability begin to gain traction, while also placing the country within a broader regional recovery narrative.
