Nigeria’s aspiration to become a $1 trillion economy remains unrealistic without structural reforms that drive productivity, enhance purchasing power, and sustain long-term growth.
This was the position of CFG Advisory, presented at the monthly forum of the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN), where the firm unveiled its 2026 economic forecast titled: “The Urgency of Now – Reforms Lead to Productivity-Led Growth.”
Speaking at the event, the CEO of CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo, said Nigeria has the potential to become a $2 trillion or even $3 trillion economy, but it must overcome its pattern of inconsistent policies and macroeconomic instability.
What they are saying
At the FICAN event, Adebajo stressed that Nigeria’s trillion-dollar ambition will remain a slogan unless backed by clear, deliberate growth strategies. He explained that while Nigeria has seen flashes of economic scale in the past, it has consistently failed to build momentum.
- “Nigeria has already flirted with scale before. At its peak, GDP climbed close to $700 billion. With sustained additions of $20 billion, $40 billion or even $50 billion annually, it could have pushed past $1 trillion.”
- “The problem, however, is not potential but momentum. Nigeria’s economic history over the past two decades has been marked by bursts of growth followed by reversals, policy inconsistencies and macroeconomic fragility.”
- “While officials speak confidently about trillion-dollar ambitions, the hard arithmetic of growth tells a more sobering story: without sustained expansion of between 8 and 10% annually, such targets remain aspirational.”
- “A $1 trillion economy achieved within a short time frame would require growth rates closer to 18% annually — a scale of expansion that Nigeria is currently nowhere near delivering.”
He cautioned that Nigeria risks confusing policy stabilisation for real growth, and without boosting productivity, the gap between ambition and reality will only widen.
Flashback
Nigeria has long harboured aspirations to grow its economy to match global peers with similar resource endowments. However, a combination of policy missteps, macroeconomic volatility, and inconsistent reform has stalled progress.
- In the early 2010s, GDP surged following a rebasing exercise, putting the economy near the $574 billion mark.
- Since then, oil price crashes, currency crises, and inflation spikes have undermined sustainable growth.
- The country has entered two recessions in less than a decade and continues to battle with high unemployment and weak industrial output.
- Although reforms under the Tinubu administration have brought a degree of stability, they have yet to translate into significant productivity gains.
This history highlights why scale must be built patiently, not promised rhetorically.
Why this matters
Despite achieving macroeconomic stabilisation on some fronts, Adebajo warned that real impact will only come when Nigerians can buy more with their earnings.
He said Nigeria is currently stuck in a “sachet economy,” a term that captures the sharp decline in consumer purchasing power.
- “In the past two years, government policy has focused heavily on stabilising a battered macroeconomic environment. By most accounts, that stabilisation has largely been achieved.”
- “Inflation, while still contested in terms of measurement, is widely acknowledged to be trending downward. But growth remains shallow and uneven, barely outpacing population expansion.”
- “The most visible evidence of this strain is the erosion of purchasing power. The widespread ‘sachetisation’ of consumption has become a defining feature of daily life.”
- “It is a market response to declining real incomes, and a powerful signal that the economy is saturated rather than expanding.”
He also pointed to contradictions in monetary policy: “If inflation is truly falling towards 15%, why are policy rates still almost double that level? Such distortions signal an economy prioritising nominal stability over real growth — a trade-off Nigeria can no longer afford.”
What you should know
President Bola Tinubu has set a long-term target of expanding Nigeria’s GDP to $1 trillion by 2030, aiming to attract investment and improve the quality of life for citizens.
- Nigeria’s GDP was rebased in 2024 to N372.8 trillion, roughly $243 billion at prevailing exchange rates.
- The economy recorded 3.98% growth in Q3 2025, while the World Bank projects 4.2% growth in 2026 due to recent reforms.
- CFG Advisory insists that to reach $1 trillion, annual growth must more than double to 8–10%, with even higher rates needed for accelerated expansion.
“Macroeconomic reforms are necessary but insufficient,” Adebajo said. “Without deliberate sectoral policies — such as developing domestic supply chains, boosting agriculture-linked manufacturing, and funding capital budgets — stabilisation will not translate into prosperity.”
Citing Indonesia’s transformation as a blueprint, Adebajo concluded: “Scale is built patiently, through consistent policy and long-term investment, not through rhetoric.”
