Cocoa has started the year weaker on the global commodities market, sliding from around $5,900 per metric ton to $5,224 as expectations of higher supply put pressure on prices.
This represents a more than 12% month-to-date decline, with the commodity hitting a seven-week low as of trading on 13 January 2026 amid signs of weaker demand at the start of the year.
Analysts say demand is likely to remain subdued, with European cocoa processing data for the fourth quarter expected to show weaker activity.
Although good weather in major cocoa producers like the Ivory Coast and Ghana has increased supply over demand, some experts say the sharp drop—particularly on 9 January 2026—was mostly technical, driven by traders selling after December’s price gains.
What the data is saying
In 2025, cocoa futures fell by over 44% on the commodities market, sliding from above $10,950 to $6,065 per metric tonne.
The full-year decline would have exceeded 50% if not for a bullish correction in December, when prices rebounded from $5,456 to $6,065.
According to Oran van Dort, commodity analyst at Rabobank, the early-December decline was largely driven by traders taking advantage of the slight December highs to sell.
“The declines are more technical than fundamental. Exporters and speculators sought to capitalise on the price rise,” he said.
Van Dort added that cocoa prices are expected to remain on a downward trend, as favourable conditions in West Africa are likely to keep supply strong and allow more beans to reach ports.
In central and west-central Ivory Coast, farmers told journalists that significant volumes of beans will continue leaving the bush until late March.
“There will be no sudden interruption in harvest until March because there are still enough pods on the trees,” said Etienne Kanga, a farmer in Daloa.
Market trend in 2025
Cocoa started 2025 at $10,950 per metric tonne but quickly came under strong bearish pressure, dropping below $8,000 after the first quarter to $7,888.
The market saw a brief rebound in the second quarter, rising more than 16%, with April and May delivering the only positive monthly performances of the year and contributing most of the quarter’s gains.
However, the recovery was short-lived. Prices turned negative again in June and continued to decline through the third quarter, falling below $7,500, with September recording the steepest losses.
The downtrend extended into October, with cocoa falling over 8% to $6,151. Weakness persisted in November, pushing prices below $6,000 to $5,403, down more than 12% for the month.
However, the commodity staged an 11% correction in December, closing at $6,065.
With the mid-January 2026 decline, cocoa is now priced at $5,224 as of the close of trading on 13 January.
Why this matters
Cocoa’s sharp drop highlights the wider pressures on soft commodities, driven by changing weather, economic shifts, and fluctuating demand.
- Lower prices can help manufacturers and chocolatiers, but they may squeeze export revenues for West African countries that rely heavily on cocoa.
- Sluggish cocoa processing in Europe points to weak industrial demand, with Q3 2025 grindings falling 4.8% year-on-year to 337,353 metric tonnes, adding to oversupply concerns.
With these factors at play, the market is likely to remain bearish.
What you should know
- The last major cocoa market update by Nairametrics noted a December 2025 rebound in prices driven by short-term buying but highlighted ongoing supply pressures.
- Ivory Coast and Ghana remain the world’s top cocoa producers, supplying over 60% of global output.
- Any changes in weather, export policies, or logistics in these countries could have a big impact on global cocoa prices.
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