The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that headline inflation will moderate to an average of 12.94% in 2026, driven by easing food prices and a decline in the cost of premium motor spirit (PMS).
The projection is contained in the apex bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
According to the CBN, improved domestic supply conditions and stabilising energy prices are expected to reduce cost pressures on households and businesses, supporting overall price stability.
What the CBN is saying
In the outlook report, the CBN said inflationary pressures are expected to ease in 2026 as food and energy prices decline.
“Headline inflation is projected to moderate to an estimated average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by declining food and premium motor spirit (PMS) prices,” the apex bank said.
The CBN also projected a bullish capital market outlook for 2026, supported by ongoing bank recapitalisation, rising investor confidence, and policy measures aimed at fostering economic growth.
The apex bank identified several factors expected to influence growth in monetary aggregates in 2026, including exchange rate movements, fiscal operations, election-related spending, and the continued implementation of prudential and regulatory measures.
According to the CBN, these variables will shape liquidity conditions and credit expansion in the economy, particularly as political activities ahead of elections increase government spending and financial flows.
The outlook builds on recent policy tightening and structural reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability after a prolonged period of elevated inflation and currency volatility.
What this means
If realised, the projected moderation in inflation would mark a significant improvement in Nigeria’s price environment, potentially easing pressure on consumers and improving business planning.
A bullish capital market outlook also suggests stronger investor participation, particularly as bank recapitalisation and policy reforms deepen market confidence.
The CBN said it remains committed to deploying appropriate policy tools to sustain macroeconomic stability, support economic growth, and strengthen the financial system amid domestic and global economic uncertainties.
What you should know
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, marking a significant slowdown from the 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025.
The decline of 1.6 percentage points month-on-month signals easing price pressures across the economy after several months of elevated inflation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
In December 2024, President Bola Tinubu declared the Federal Government’s commitment to reducing Nigeria’s inflation rate from 34.6% to 15% by the end of 2025.
