Cocoa has fallen more than 12% so far in November, trading at $5,401 per ton and extending a downtrend that has persisted from June through October.
This is a sharp turnaround for a commodity that jumped 177% in 2024 to $11,675, before slipping into a steady decline from January 2025, despite short-lived recoveries in April and May.
The November 2025 drop intensified after the Trump administration announced a 10% reciprocal tariff reduction on commodities not grown in the United States.
Analysts say improving weather across major West African producers, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana, has further eased supply concerns.
Farmers in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, told reporters that more beans are expected to reach the market in December, as many pods are now nearly ripe.
Moderate rainfall
Farmers say light rainfall across Ivory Coast has boosted the growth of many small and medium-sized cocoa pods ahead of the seasonal Harmattan winds, which usually blow in from the Sahara between December and March.
They note that light to moderate rains would help extend the main crop and support a larger harvest compared with last year.
“The light rains are helping the trees, but we still need rain until mid-December because it is very hot,” said Donatien Adou, a farmer near Yamoussoukro.
“There is a lot of cocoa on the trees right now, and we think the harvest will remain strong into next year,” said Salame Kone, who farms near Soubre, where 7.6 mm of rain fell last week, 12.3 mm below the average.
This is a sharp contrast to the previous year, when heavy rains, particularly in the southwest, intensified from late September, disrupting harvesting, complicating the drying process, and delaying the transport of beans to ports.
Those disruptions sent prices soaring, contributing to an 80% year-to-date rise by mid-October 2024.
Market trend in 2025
Cocoa began 2025 at $10,950 but quickly came under strong bearish pressure, falling below the $8,000 range after the first quarter to $7,888.
The market saw a brief rebound in the second quarter, rising more than 16%, with April and May delivering the only positive monthly performances of the year and accounting for most of the quarter’s gains.
This recovery was short-lived. Prices turned negative again in June and continued to decline through the third quarter, slipping below $7,500, with September recording the steepest losses.
The downtrend extended into October, with cocoa falling more than 8% to $6,151 and the weakness persisting in November, as prices now sit below the $6,000 mark at $5,403, down over 12% so far this month.
Overall, cocoa has dropped more than 50% year-to-date.
What’s the strategy for those that bought high to avoid loss due to price fall? Also how does financiers manage their books with the current trend?