Geregu Power Plc is forecasting a post-tax profit of N12.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, up from an estimated N11.7 billion for Q3, which is yet to be released.
The forecast, filed on the NGX and signed by the CEO and CFO, reflects the company’s expectations for its earnings in the final quarter.
If realized, this projection would bring total post-tax profit for 2025 to around N44 billion or more, assuming quarterly results meet estimates, marking a significant improvement from 2024, when actual post-tax profit of N27.4 billion fell short of the estimated N35.7 billion.
- For the first quarter of 2025, the company projected a post-tax profit of N11.3 billion with an EPS of N4.5 and reported N10.4 billion with an EPS of N4.17, slightly below estimates but still profitable.
- In the second quarter, it estimated a profit of N8.6 billion and EPS of N3.46 but exceeded expectations with N9.7 billion and EPS of N3.9
- For the third quarter, analysts expect the company may achieve its projected N11.7 billion post-tax profit, though official results are not yet out.
With the Q4 projection at N12.1 billion, it will be important to watch for the factors that could help the company meet or even surpass this target.
Strong top-line performanceÂ
In the second quarter of 2025, Geregu Power reported a significant increase in revenue, which surged to N55.8 billion compared to N30.2 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.
- A large portion of this revenue came from energy sales of N35.8 billion, with the remaining N19.9 billion from capacity charges.
After accounting for the cost of sales of N32.1 billion, the company recorded a gross profit of N23.7 billion, up 81.8% from N13 billion in the previous year.
In the first quarter, the company had reported revenue of N31.7 billion, down from N50.4 billion in the same quarter of 2024.
- Energy sales again outperformed capacity charges, standing at N20.8 billion compared to N10.8 billion, while the cost of sales came in at N19.7 billion, lower than N22 billion in the prior year, resulting in a gross profit of N12 billion.
While Q1’s performance was softer than Q2, the strong improvement in the second quarter reflects solid growth and a healthier top-line performance.
Operational healthÂ
Part of the company’s strength in 2025 has been its operational health across both quarters.
In Q2, it reported an operating profit of N15 billion, up 73.7% from N8.6 billion in the previous year.
Despite rising operating expenses, particularly impairment losses on financial assets which increased to N6 billion from N2 billion, the company still generated profit from core operations.
- This was sufficient to drive bottom-line profitability despite a net finance cost of N1.7 billion in Q2.
In the first quarter, it recorded an operating profit of N14.6 billion, down from N21.7 billion in the same period the previous year.
Operating expenses were well managed in Q1, even with a decline in top-line revenue.
- Geregu was able to reverse an impairment loss on financial assets of N3.9 billion in Q1 2024 into a profit of N5.2 billion, while administrative expenses grew only slightly from N2.1 billion to N2.5 billion.
The improvement in Q2 operational profit highlights improvement in core operational activities.
Going forward, sustained profitability will likely depend on strong top-line growth and continued cost management.
