FCMB Group Plc has projected a profit after tax (PAT) of N58.8 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, according to its latest filing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
The earnings forecast, a regulatory requirement for listed companies, provides investors with a forward view of expected performance and offers insights into how the bank is positioning itself ahead of a challenging operating environment.
If achieved, this projection would push FCMB’s full-year profits to N171.5 billion, more than double the N73 billion reported in the 2024 financial year.
Consistently beating forecasts
A look back at the bank’s performance this year reveals a consistent pattern of beating its own projections.
- In Q1 2025, FCMB forecast a PAT of N31.2 billion but delivered N32.2 billion.
- In Q2, it forecast N36.6 billion but posted N41.1 billion.
- For Q3 (ending September 30, 2025), it had projected N39.3 billion, with actual results yet to be formally released.
This track record suggests that its Q4 forecast of N58.8 billion may be conservative, potentially providing more upside for shareholders.
On the revenue side, the lender expects gross earnings of N265.2 billion in Q4, with interest income contributing N231.8 billion.
Forbearance expiry and write-downs
One of the major challenges FCMB faced this year was the expiry of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) loan forbearance regime, which forced banks to fully recognize previously deferred impairments.
- In H1 2025, FCMB reported a total earnings write-down of N36.2 billion, with N26.7 billion of that booked in Q2 alone—far above its forecast of N11.3 billion.
- Despite this heavy provisioning, the bank still managed to beat profit forecasts, highlighting operational resilience.
- Management disclosed that the bank has now fully exited forbearance, implying no further major impairment shocks ahead. As the bank explained in its H1 results:
“Net impairment loss on financial assets grew by 180% QoQ to N36.2 billion for the period ended June 2025 as our Nigerian Banking subsidiary exited the CBN loan forbearance, which resulted in a growth in cost of risk to 2.8% from 1.8% recorded for FY 2024.”
Recapitalization drive: one more lap to go
Like other Nigerian banks, FCMB faces a recapitalization deadline from the CBN.
- Nairametrics estimates that the lender will need to raise about N188 billion more to meet the regulatory threshold.
- The bank has already made significant progress. In 2024, it raised N144.6 billion via a public offer.
- The CBN has since concluded the verification of the second phase of this raise, which included a mandatory convertible note of about N22.5 billion, set to increase issued shares to around 42.8 billion units.
This additional buffer leaves FCMB better positioned than many of its peers, but the need for further fundraising could bring shareholder dilution risks in the short term.
What you should know
At a share price of N10.5 per share, FCMB trades at what appears to be a steep discount relative to earnings.
- Based on Nairametrics’ estimate, FY 2025 earnings per share (EPS) could come in around N4.30, implying a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 2.44x.
- For context, the NGX Banking Index average P/E typically ranges between 3x–5x in recent cycles.
- This makes FCMB relatively undervalued on a pure earnings multiple basis, though recapitalization risks may be weighing on investor sentiment.
If the bank delivers on its Q4 forecast, its forward EPS could strengthen its case as a “value play” in Nigeria’s banking sector, particularly for investors comfortable with potential equity dilution in the coming capital raise.
