Nigeria’s economy is projected to post stronger growth in Q2 2025, with analysts forecasting real GDP expansion between 3.2% and 3.9%.
This would outpace both Q1 2025 growth of 3.13% and the corresponding period of 2024, reflecting improved macro stability and rising non-oil output.
The positive outlook is underpinned by the recent GDP rebasing, relative exchange rate stability, and expansion across financial services, telecoms, and industry.
In Q1 2025, GDP growth was underpinned by resilience in services and other non-oil sectors despite headwinds in the oil industry; Q2 is expected to build on this momentum.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the official GDP report later this month.
Expert projections
Head of Research at Norrenberg, Samuel Oyekanmi
The recently concluded rebasing of the GDP framework is expected to sharpen visibility into sectoral performance; a factor analysts believe will underpin stronger growth in Q2. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) averaged 52.2 points in Q2, compared with 51.3 points in Q1 2025 and 48.0 points in Q2 2024, reflecting improved expansion in business activities.
According to Samuel Oyekanmi, Head of Research at Norrenberg, “The Nigerian economy appears well positioned to record stronger growth in Q2 2025, outpacing both Q1 2025 and the corresponding period of 2024.” Oyekanmi projects GDP growth in the range of 3.5% to 3.7%, citing the rebasing exercise and expansion in the non-oil economy as key tailwinds.
Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, Damilare Asimiyu
Damilare forecast growth between 3.2% and 3.9%, driven by a robust non-oil sector expected to expand by 4.1%–4.6%, while the oil economy is projected to post a modest 2.0%–2.6% gain.
The subdued oil performance reflects relatively flat crude output of 1.48mbpd in Q2 (vs. 1.47mbpd in Q1), alongside weaker oil prices averaging $68.70/barrel, compared with $73.66 in Q1. Analysts highlight that the “Trump tariff effect” has dragged global demand, weighing on crude oil earnings.
On the other hand, the non-oil sector continues to gain traction. The services sector remains the primary growth driver, with finance & insurance benefiting from bank recapitalisation, while telecommunications activity is buoyed by tariff liberalisation. The industrial sector is also expected to post an improvement, with growth nudging to 3.6% in Q2 from 3.4% in Q1, helped by easing inflationary pressures and FX stability.
Conversely, the agriculture sector is projected to remain underwhelming, growing below its long-term average of 3%. Persistent insecurity in major food-producing states such as Benue and Plateau continues to dampen productivity.
Vice Chairman at Highcap Securities Prof. David Adonri
For Prof. David Adonri, the growth outlook is reinforced by macroeconomic stability. “Considering the moderating inflation, stable currency and increasing foreign reserves, GDP is expected to have grown in Q2 2025,” he stated.
Key drivers of expected GDP growth for Q2 2025
- GDP rebasing: Enhances visibility of fast-growing sectors, particularly services and telecoms.
- Macro stability: Inflation is easing, FX volatility has moderated, and reserves are improving.
- Business activity: PMI of 52.2 indicates stronger private-sector output.
- Non-oil momentum: Services, telecoms, and industry continue to expand, offsetting oil weakness.
Nairametrics’ take
Nigeria’s economy is set to record faster growth in Q2 2025 compared to the first quarter, as macro indicators point to stability and renewed confidence. The naira traded within a relatively narrow band, offering relief to manufacturers and import-dependent firms.
The quarter was further supported by a decline in fuel prices, which helped ease business operating costs and moderated inflationary pressures. On the capital markets side, the Nigerian Exchange posted a 13.54% gain in Q2, its strongest performance since early 2024 when it surged 39.84%.
Overall, the mix of FX stability, lower energy costs, and stock market rebound signals stronger GDP momentum in Q2, underpinned by improved conditions in the non-oil economy.
