The Nigerian currency traded below the key resistance (N1600/$) against the greenback at the unofficial market.
Recent fundamentals showed the recently concluded holidays plummeted transactional volumes across Nigeria’s business capital as the naira traded at N1587-1590/$ bandwidth early Tuesday
The CBN’s recent data showed Naira’s prospects sparkled as Nigerian businesses expressed an unexpectedly positive attitude toward West Africa’s largest economy.
Agriculture notched the highest confidence score during the month, and that sturdy faith in farming seems hard to shake. Out in the quarry holes and power plants,
Business chiefs made bold plans to scale up in the first half of the year. Respondents pointedly wagered that the Naira would gain ground across almost every horizon they discussed. Factory bosses, traders, and service owners expect to hire more people. That consistent upbeat tone ran through the commentary almost without interruption.
Bismarck Rewane, a Nigerian economist who runs Financial Derivatives Limited, says the naira is likely to hover around N1,600 to N1,650 per dollar in the coming weeks.
He offered that forecast at the June Lagos Business School breakfast, a gathering where traders and boardroom types usually spar over numbers before the coffee cools.
Rewane pointed out that the naira is still about 26.82 per cent undervalued by most traditional yardsticks. He added that the dollar’s own 8.7 percent dip this year could cushion any push-back the local unit feels.
The economist also noted a quieter, if not welcome, sign: official and parallel quotes are now fused within a 1-3 percent band. That beats the 50 to 70 per cent gulf that used to howl before the last round of policy tweaks. The margin sits inside N50, which, in his book, means the currency is priced.
The U.S dollar is stable in the global market, but its outlook is weighty
The dollar is barely budging against major currencies at the London trading session as traders weigh an inflation surprise in the world’s largest economy later in the week.
Headlines out of London spoke of senior U.S. and Chinese envoys sitting across a table, their second day already hedged in jargon and waiting-room optimism meant to calm a choppy news cycle. Listeners recalled last week’s call between Trump and Xi and noted that both presidents now need something before voters start tallying up the pain.
- The Geneva-adopted temporary truce, which momentarily reduced trade tensions and stabilized markets, is being sought after by Beijing and Washington.
- The London talks featured export limits on microchips, rare earths, and student visas. These are long-term strategic concerns that cannot be settled in a few days, in contrast to the Geneva talks, when tariff relief produced easy wins. Therefore, creating a positive surprise is more challenging.
- The Dollar Index, which compares the US dollar’s strength to six major global currencies, held steady at 98.99, not far off the six-week low set last week.
The dollar index has lost 9% so far this year amid market concerns about how trade tensions and tariffs may negatively impact the US economy.
When the May consumer price index is revealed on Wednesday, investors will be paying close attention. This study could provide insight into the impact of tariffs at a time when investors are wary of any increase in inflation.
- The global FX market has been unstable ever since Donald Trump began his final term, as traders take a cautious look at the greenback
- Wobbly headlines about growth, inflation, and Fed timing explain part of the twitch, but cramped by earlier swings also deserves blame, UBS insists.
- Dean Turner, the firm’s London-based economist, puts it plainly: Money managers are trimming dollar weight when they stare at the new risk map.
- The flip side shows in faltering currency values, rising Treasury yields, and a pocket of European stocks that suddenly look lively. Sterling mirrors the scene, splaying from 1.25 down to 1.20 before straggling back near 1.35.
Turner’s report, circulated Monday, warns that the dollar cockpit no longer feels like the safest seat in turbulent skies. Washington itself is feeling more like the epicenter of uncertainty, he argues.
Still, the strategist stops short of telling investors to bail completely. The U.S. market dwarfs its rivals in heft and liquidity, and that single fact keeps the dollar from being tossed overboard entirely.
Nonetheless, many Wall Street pros hear warning bells. Turner, for instance, just told a small crowd that shaky politics, volatile trade, and budget red ink project more slippage in the next few months.
