OPEC+ is weighing a potential oil production increase exceeding the previously planned 411,000 barrels per day for July, as it seeks to reclaim lost market share, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
Eight key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Saudi Arabia, are scheduled to meet via video conference on Saturday to discuss output policy, Bloomberg reports.
Their previous two meetings resulted in aggressive production hikes that helped push oil prices lower—an approach they may double down on this time.
While some delegates remain unaware of plans for a significantly larger boost, expecting a more modest increase in line with May and June’s 411,000-barrel-per-day increments—deliberations are reportedly confined to a core group of the alliance’s most influential members. Decisions are sometimes communicated to the broader group only at the last minute.
There will be price hike – says Kazakhstan’s Deputy Energy Minister
OPEC+ has notably shifted its strategy from defending oil prices to actively driving them down. In April, the group surprised markets with a supply increase three times the previously planned volume, pushing crude prices to a four-year low below $60 a barrel amid weakening demand and U.S. trade tensions. A similar move followed in May. As of Friday, Brent crude futures were trading below $64 a barrel in London.
Kazakhstan’s Deputy Energy Minister, Alibek Zhamauov, hinted at a bigger hike in comments to reporters on Thursday: “There will be a hike, but whether it will be 400, 500, 600, we don’t know — that will be announced on Saturday,” he said in Astana, according to the news agency.
- Motivations behind Riyadh’s policy pivot remain varied. Some observers believe Saudi Arabia is responding to growing global demand. Others suggest the kingdom is punishing members like Iraq and Kazakhstan for repeatedly violating their production quotas.
- Still others see an attempt to appease U.S. President Donald Trump or recapture market share lost to U.S. shale producers and other competitors. The reality may involve a combination of these factors.
However, if Saudi Arabia’s goal is to discipline quota violators through a strategy of “controlled sweating,” the results have been mixed.
- Kazakhstan, among the most egregious offenders, continues to exceed its quota by several hundred thousand barrels daily.
- The country’s Energy Minister, Yerlan Akkenzhenov, has stated that Kazakhstan has no intention of reducing output, citing an inability to enforce cuts on international partners or state-run fields.
The policy shift has come at a cost. While falling oil prices have provided relief to consumers and central banks battling inflation, they pose financial risks to producers. The International Monetary Fund estimates Saudi Arabia requires oil prices above $90 per barrel to fund Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious economic plans. Faced with a widening budget deficit, the kingdom has already scaled back investment in major projects, including the futuristic NEOM city.
As the cartel meets this weekend, markets will be watching closely to see whether OPEC+ deepens its output surge and how it plans to navigate the complex balance between market share, fiscal stability, and internal discipline.
What you should know
Earlier in May 2025, OPEC+ announced its intention to accelerate its oil production increases and could return up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market by November if erring members fail to comply with output quotas.
OPEC+ is still collectively cutting nearly 5 million bpd from the global oil supply, with many of those reductions scheduled to remain until 2026.
