When Dangote Sugar Refinery proposed a bold merger in August 2023 with NASCON Allied Industries and the dormant Dangote Rice, it looked like a conglomerate tightening its belt, blending its salt, sugar, and rice businesses into a leaner empire.
Under the proposed terms, NASCON shareholders would give up 12 NASCON shares in exchange for 11 shares of Dangote Sugar.
- For example, if you owned 120 NASCON shares, you would get 110 Dangote Sugar shares in return.
- Dangote Rice shareholders were to receive 14 DSR shares for every 1 Dangote Rice share.
The plan looked good until April 2024, when it suddenly fell apart.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) raised concerns. Dangote Rice was not operational, so merging it with functioning companies did not quite add up. The deal was officially suspended.
Since then, with the release of the 2024 full-year and Q1 2025 results, investors are left wondering: Did shareholders miss out on a big opportunity, or did they dodge a loss?
Who would have gained and who dodged a fit?Â
Nascon Allied Industries PlcÂ
By the end of 2024, NASCON’s share price had fallen by 41.6%, closing the year at N31.35.
But fast-forward to May 2025, and the stock has staged a major comeback up a whopping 72% year-to-date, now trading at N54.
The company did not just bounce back in the market, it backed it up with real performance:
- It paid out N1.00 interim dividend in November 2023 and N2.00 final dividend in May 2025.
- It reported a N23.6 billion pre-tax profit in 2024, despite tough economic conditions.
- In just the first quarter of 2025, profits soared 500% to N11.3 billion, nearly half of its 2024 full-year earnings.
Dangote Sugar Refinery PlcÂ
Dangote Sugar faced some tough challenges in 2024. By the end of the year, its share price had declined by 42.98%, closing at N32.50.
But in 2025, the company showed signs of recovery, with a 16.9% year-to-date gain, bringing the stock to around N38.
Financially:
- The company reported a pre-tax loss of N270.9 billion in 2024, largely due to FX losses and high interest expenses
- Encouragingly, it narrowed the loss significantly in Q1 2025, down to N22.6 billion, a step in the right direction.
- It last paid a dividend of N1.50 per share for the 2022 financial year.
While Dangote Sugar still faces challenges like high borrowing costs and thinner margins, its Q1 2025 performance suggests it is making progress toward stabilization.
Had the merger gone through, NASCON shareholders would have exchanged a recovering, dividend-paying stock for shares in a company that is still in turnaround mode.
The 12-for-11 share swap could have diluted NASCON’s strong momentum and tied it to a business still navigating headwinds.
Instead:
- NASCON remained independent and profitable,
- Paid a total of N3 in dividends,
- And delivered an impressive 72% share price gain in 2025 so far.
Meanwhile, Dangote Sugar is gradually regaining its footing, showing improvement but still working to return to its past strength.
Sometimes, the best deals are the ones that wait for the right timing.
For now, NASCON shareholders benefited from staying the course, while Dangote Sugar continues its path to recovery.
