OPEC-13 crude oil demand is projected to hit 29.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023.
This is according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly oil market report (MOMR) released on Monday, November 14.
According to the report, demand for OPEC-13 crude oil in 2023 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d, which is around 0.7 mb/d higher than in 2022. Meanwhile, demand for OPEC-13 crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous MOMR to stand at 28.6 mb/d, which is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021.
The report also notes that OPEC-13 crude oil production output for October 2022, increased mainly in Nigeria and Iraq, while production in Saudi Arabia and Angola declined.
In the short term: The report also stated that OPEC-13 crude oil production was down 0.21% in October 2022. The group recorded 29.49 million barrels per day (mb/d) for October 2022 and 29.70 mb/d in September 2022, lower by 210 thousand barrels per day, month-on-month.
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Balance of supply and demand: The MOMR says OPEC-13 crude production averaged 28.4 mb/d in Q1/2022, which is 0.3 mb/d lower than demand. In Q2/2022, OPEC crude production averaged 28.6 mb/d, which is 0.2 mb/d higher than demand. In Q3/2022, OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.5 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d higher than demand.
World oil demand: The MOMR put world oil demand figures for 2023 at 101.8 mb/d. The report states: “In 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down by around 0.1 mb/d to stand at 2.2 mb/d to average 101.8 mb/d, supported by expected geopolitical improvements and the containment of COVID-19 in China.
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Factors impacting global oil demand and supply: In the MOMR, there are pointers to the fact that the world economy has entered a period of significant uncertainty and rising challenges, which include high inflation, monetary tightening by major central banks, high sovereign debt levels, tightening labor markets and persisting supply chain constraints. As a result of these, a global slowdown is expected to materialize in 4Q/2022. The slowdown will likely carry over into H1/2023. According to OPEC, global growth in 2023 is forecast at 2.5%.
For the record: Crude production output in Nigeria increased to over a million barrels per day (mb/d), despite a 0.21% drop in OPEC’s crude production for October 2022.
Nairametrics had earlier reported that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said daily production for October 2022 was 1.01 mb/d for October, compared to 972K bpd in August, and 937K bpd in September.
For October 2022, OPEC reports 1.01 mb/d for Nigeria’s crude oil production, based on direct communication. However, OPEC reports 1.05 mb/d for Nigeria’s crude oil production, based on secondary sources.
Despite recording over a million barrels per day of crude production in October 2022, the OPEC report stated that Nigeria’s economic outlook has been impacted by the devastating rains and floods that have affected 31 of Nigeria’s 36 states and resulted in a significant loss of land, lives, and livelihoods.
OPEC-13 countries include Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and, Venezuela.