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Market Views

The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

Between 2012 and 2017 the naira has depreciated by 30% compounded annually.

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If you ask anyone today to choose between being paid in dollars or in naira, there will only be one winner. Since the oil price crash in early March and the ravaging COVID-19 virus, the exchange rate between the naira and dollar has depreciated across the multiple official and unofficial markets where the currency can be purchased. 

At the black market, the exchange rate sells for an average N460/$1 (as at this week) and is projected to go higher depending on who you speak to. At the NAFEX market where forex is sold by exporters and investors, the exchange rate is closer to N388/$1 oscillating between a plus or minus N2 band. Just last week the CBN informed the market that the SMIS window where forex is sold to importers and traders that the new floor for forex purchase in N380/$1. The exchange rate at the official CBN window remains N360/$1.  

READ ALSO: Investors lose N162 billion amidst buying pressure from ZENITH, GTBANK 

This buttresses the growing calls for the unification of the various exchange rate windows. The market wants a single uniform rate. It is easy to see why. No one wants to be on the losing side if a repeat of 2017 occurs. In case you forgot, the exchange rate was highly volatile in the parallel market trading for as high as N505/$1 before crashing down to N366/$1 after the CBN introduced the NAFEX window. Many people lost money as the naira converged towards that rate. You don’t be in this boat if history repeats itself.  

This is why speculating the exchange rate between the naira and dollar can be a brutally risky exercise compounded by the multiple exchange windows in the country. Buy at N460/$1 today and hold as most non-savvy speculators often do and the multiple forex windows are collapsed into one at N388/$1, as the central bank governor alludes to, things could get very risky. If unifying the exchange unlocks liquidity into the market rate and it holds at N388/$1, there is every likelihood that the parallel market rate will follow suit. Those on the other side of the trade looking to convert their dollars (purchased at N460/$1) into naira will be burned badly.  

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Perhaps a consolation is that so long as Nigeria continues to be import-dependent, it is only a matter of time before the naira depreciates to your buying price. Between 2012 and 2017, the naira has depreciated by 30% compounded annually. You probably only need to wait another 2-3 years and you claw back your losses. But the same cannot be said for anyone with a dollar investment and looking to convert to naira. The burn can be severe. 

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For example, you purchase $1,000 at N460 and invest in an asset that should earn you 10% or $100 in profits. If by the time you liquidate your $1,100 and the exchange rate has strengthened to say N400, your $1100 is now N440,000 compared to the N460,000 it cost you when you purchased at $1,000. The exchange rate loss has basically wiped out your profits and part of your capital.  

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Speculating in forex is hugely rewarding but also very risky. Don’t be fooled to believe it only goes up, things can go down faster than you can imagine. The market will always deliver greater fools. 

Nairametrics is Nigeria's top business news and financial analysis website. We focus on providing resources that help small businesses and retail investors make better investing decisions. Nairametrics is updated daily by a team of professionals. Post updated as "Nairametrics" are published by our Editorial Board.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Sensible Investor

    July 7, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    It is only in Nigeria that once prices go up they never come down. So your last example doesnt add up as the parallel market will always be higher than the official rates. The best advice is to gradually stockpile in USD

    • Oluwatobi Akindunjoye

      July 8, 2020 at 1:14 pm

      Did you not see that in 2015 it rose to 500+ and then came back to 360? Was that not also in Nigeria. The article has concluded that while this could be a very rewarding speculative move, it’s also very risky.

  2. Stanley

    July 7, 2020 at 10:38 pm

    I agree with you on the naira depreciating further come a couple of years later due to our excessive reliance on imports. In fact I think the 5 year forward market price of the naira should be over N600/$, at the rate things are moving.

  3. 9jaRealist

    July 8, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    The question you should be asking is why people are COMPELLED to patronize the “black” market.

    PS: @STANLEY, 5-year forwards as of May was already N570/$1.

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Cryptocurrency

Crypto experts reveal their favourite Cryptos 

Nairametrics decided to seek the opinion of crypto experts on what Crypto they would consider investing in.

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Crypto experts reveal their favourite Cryptos 

In the crypto-verse, Nigeria remains one of the fastest-growing and lucrative markets for crypto traders and global investors to be in. 

Data retrieved from a Chainalysis report ranked Nigeria as the eighth (out of 154 countries) in its 2019-2020 global adoption index. Africa’s largest economy is first among other African countries in peer-to-peer payments (moving $139 million in the past year). 

READ: 7 key takeaways from Facebook’s Cryptocurrency, Libra

READ: Crypto deal: Google joins EOS community

The increased usage by many young, educated Nigerians is often attributed to the high bureaucratic processes by many commercial banks for transfers, not forgetting stringent cash control mechanisms set by the Nigerian Central bank in controlling cash flows. Crypto provides low-fee remittances and an alternative way to preserve and grow wealth. 

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Nairametrics decided to seek the opinions of crypto experts on what cryptos they would consider investing in, apart from the known flagship crypto Bitcoin. Their responses were as insightful as they were diverse, ranging from popularly known altcoins to some new ones. 

READ: Harvest: Crypto that gives interest on your Bitcoin

READ: Bitcoin robbers transfer stolen BTCs worth $13.2 million

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Clement Hugbo – Founder and CEO at Crevatal Technologies 

“As volatile and unpredictable as cryptocurrencies are, they are still one of the best investments to get right on and it’s never too late. 

READ: OmiseGO, a small digital coin up, 150% in less than 30 days, as Bitcoin fails to break $10,000

5 Cryptocurrencies I will advise to invest in at this time are: 

  1. Binancecoin, BNB 
  2. Ethereum, ETH
  3. Bundle token (coming soon)
  4. PhoenixDAO, PHNX
  5. Uniswap, UNI.

I chose these tokens because they not only have infrastructures and working products to back their assets, but they play deeply within the DeFi ecosystem which currently is the future of money.  

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READ: Over $500 million dollars worth of Bitcoins withdrawn from BitMEX

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While Binance is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world and has diverse use cases for its token, it recently launched its own Smart chain, bringing DeFi possibilities and flexibilities to more developers and communities. Bundle token will be Africa’s Binance coin as its use cases are diverse, being a partnering project with Binance. PhoenixDAO has diverse products like staking dApps, DAO, events and so much more, with brands using her protocols for products development. 

Ethereum, being the mother of smart contracts and Tokenization, has diverse use cases by devs and communities in the ecosystem.  

READ: Ethereum miners earning more than their Bitcoin rivals

Lastly, Uniswap is the mother of DeFi and decentralization, enabling traders to transact in a permissionless and decentralized platform, completely excluding their parties.  

My choices are based on the consistent use cases of these tokens and their relevance to creating lasting solutions in the Blockchain ecosystem.”

READ: Fastest growing cryptocurrency, Compound (COMP) up over 143% in 24 hours

Henry Muna – Founder & CEO, Muna Wallet 

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“USDN (Neutrino USD) is an algorithmic stablecoin soft-pegged to the US Dollar and collateralized by WAVES. 

The stable exchange rate is maintained using an advanced stability algorithm. 

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USDN offers 10-15% annual percentage returns without the risk of liquidation. 

It leverages the staking reward system of the Waves monetary policy and LPoS consensus algorithm. Staking rewards are distributed according to your contribution to the network with additional USDN.  

READ: Chainlink: Most valuable DeFi crypto is attracting investors again, gains over 8%

Its asset is available on Waves and Ethereum blockchain, with staking services available on MunaWaves.exchangeKucoin, and any Etheruem wallet. 

1 USDN = 1 USD; it lets traders hedge against market volatility. 

USDN staking is governed by a smart contract, not by a central authority. 

Neutrino’s smart contract resilience is verified by Beosin (Chengdu LianAn) Technology Co. Ltd.”

READ: Binance offers DeFi coders $100,000; DeFi market value hits $8 billion

David Effiiong (Davizoe) – National community director at Bitfxt Technology 

Ethereum: It’s a blockchain that allows decentralized applications to be built on. 

Dapps are decentralized applications without censorship which give people freedom. People are building games, and social media platforms on it because of its scalability. 

On ethereum, smart contracts are built also; it acts as the middle man. 

READ: Ethereum whales on the rise, as Ether hits $420

EOS: EOS is a blockchain network that is more scalable and allows Dapps, and smart contracts to be built. The transaction on this blockchain is less than 5 secs, and on Eos.io you can build several blockchains on it. 

The recent mind-blowing announcement is the partnership of Google with EOS; this shows its scalability. 

READ: Crypto: UniSwap gives each owner over $2,000

BitDeFi (BFi): It’s a decentralized finance (DeFi) token that brings the banking system on the blockchain. 

BFi is just 200,000 max supplies and 50% will be burnt because it uses a burning mechanism which makes it a deflationary token. I can boldly say it’s 100k in max supply because of 50% burning away. 

BitDeFi allows you to perform all bank use cases like savings, investment, loan, capital rendering, and many more. 

20,000 of BFi will be available for the next 5 –10yrs and it’s a community token which allows banking to be decentralized.”

READ: Ethereum transaction fees drop by 80%

Charles Okaformbah – Blockchain Solutions Architect 

“Asides Ethereum, from a protocol pov, and value that DAO tokens seem to garner in the long run, I would advise traders to look at Polkadot’s DOT.  

Currently sitting in the top 10 of coinmarketcap, with one of its founders being Gavin Wood (cofounders of Ethereum), it’s a cross-chain protocol that connects several chains together in a single network, allowing them to process transactions in parallel and exchange data between chains with security guarantees.  

READ: Fate of $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoins in Limbo

It’s been in development for years now and the DOT token is majorly used as a governance token. 

Another project from a utility pov would be Kittiefight’s KTY (full disclosure, I’m a team member). Online Betting generates massive tonnes of revenue for its stakeholders.  

What if that revenue is shared with a community of users who participate in the funding of each game’s jackpot via a DeFi backed algorithm? Not only that, KTY serves as a utility token for in-game activities. Currently, Kittiefight is rated 8 in the Top 10 DeFi lending platform by coinmarketcap.” 

 

Bottomline

It’s fair to say that the crypto experts interviewed were not short on selecting different altcoins that serve as alternatives to Bitcoin.  

That said, crypto experts are also taking advantage of altcoins and their prevalence for high price swings. As the old financial saying goes, volatility is king, on the basis that volatility provides a great way to increase one’s holdings and potentially make some good profits. 

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Market Views

GTBank, Dangote Cement keep Bulls roaring high

Market breadth closed positive as NASCON led 20 Gainers as against 6 Losers topped by NNFM at the end of today’s session.

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Nigerian stock market ended its last trading session on an impressive note. The All Share Index gained 0.47% to close at 28,697.06 points as against +0.40% appreciation recorded on Thursday.

Nigerian Stock Exchange market capitalization now stands at N14.99 Trillion. Its Year-to-Date (YTD) returns currently stands at +6.91%.

  • However, the Nigerian bourse trading turnover fell short of expectation as volume moved dipped by 9.11% as against -4.67% downtick recorded on Thursday. ACCESS, GUARANTY, and UBA were the most active to boost market turnover.
  • AFRINSURE leads the list of active stocks that recorded an impressive volume spike at the end of today’s session.
  • Market breadth closed positive as NASCON led 20 Gainers as against 6 Losers topped by NNFM at the end of today’s session – an improved performance when compared with the previous outlook.

Top gainers

  1. NASCON up 10.00% to close at N14.3
  2. PZ up 7.32% to close at N4.4
  3. ZENITHBANK up 1.69% to close at N21
  4. GUARANTY up 1.50% to close at N30.45
  5. DANGCEM up 0.67% to close at N151

Top losers

  1. NNFM down 9.89% to close at N4.19
  2. NPFMCRFBK down 4.29% to close at N1.34
  3. HONYFLOUR down 4.21% to close at N0.91
  4. UNIONDAC down 3.70% to close at N0.26
  5. VITAFOAM down 3.23% to close at N6

Outlook

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Nigerian bourse continued its bullish run amid a shutdown of economic activities at Nigeria’s economic nerve center Lagos and Rivers amid ongoing curfew put in place in order to calm hostilities prevalent in some areas.

  • Bulls seem to be rallying high amid soaring crude oil prices, and high buying pressure noticed in some Nigerian blue-chip stocks like Dangote Cement and GTBank.
  • However, Nairametrics expects you to seek the advice of a certified stockbroker when choosing stocks to buy, as some of these stocks exhibit cyclic returns in principle.

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Market Views

#EndSARS Bull return to Nigerian Stock Market amid Looting

The market breadth index was positive with 20 gainers against 10 losers.

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investors, Bulls gain momentum, as stimulus package lifts global financial markets, Bulls boost global financial market, gold hits 7 years high, Dangote, Tier-1 banks lead the bulls to close Nigerian stock market green

Nigerian bourse advanced today by 0.40%, to close at 28,563.87 points. The All Share Index was up by 0.40%, with the year-to-date return at +6.39% and market capitalization at N14.92 trillion. Investors gained N59.78 Billion.

  • A total volume of 311.3 million units of shares, valued at N469billion exchanged hands in 3,375deals. GUARANTY was the most traded shares by volume and value at 77.8million units and N2.33billion.
  • The market breadth index was positive with 20 gainers against 10 losers. UACN (+8.33%) led the gainer’s chart today, while GLAXOSMITH (-3.57%) topped the laggards.
  • All sectors were bearish – Insurance, Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods, and Banking were lowered by 0.93%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.03%, respectively save for the Industrial sector index which appreciated by +0.15%.

Top gainers

  1. UACN up 8.33% to close at 8.33%
  2. STANBIC up 2.33% to close at 2.33%
  3. DANGSUGAR up 2.22% to close at N13.8
  4. WAPCO up 2.02% to close at N17.65
  5. MTNN up 1.45% to close at 1.45%

Top losers

  1. GLAXOSMITH down 3.57% to close at N5.4
  2. INTBREW down 2.95% to close at N6.25
  3. CAP down 1.07% to close at N18.5
  4. FBNH down 0.82% to close at N6.05
  5. ZENITHBANK down 0.72% to close at N20.65

 

Outlook

Nigerian bourse against all odds recorded impressive gains. The gain was recorded amid, falling crude oil prices, and significant records of looting at a number of Nigerian urban areas triggered by the ongoing political unrest in Nigeria.

  • Buying pressure from NSE30 stocks like MTN Nigeria, Stanbic IBTC Bank, Dangote Sugar, UACN lifted the All Share Index value upward.
    Investors maid the prevailing macro are repositioning their portfolio for Q3 earning results amid a drop in market liquidity at Thursday’s trading session.
  • Nairametrics, still envisage readers to be cautious about choosing stocks to buy, on reports coming from the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) revealing Nigeria had lost more than N700 billion in economic value since the #EndSARS protests started a few weeks ago.

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