Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window appreciated significantly to N385.50 during intraday trading on Thursday, August 6, 2020. In another development, the exchange rate at the parallel market remained unchanged on Thursday as it closed at N474/$1 after exchanging as high as N486/$1.

Market Watch

Parallel Market: At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained unchanged against the dollar for a second consecutive day to close at N474/$1 on Thursday, according to information from Abokifx, a prominent FX tracking website. This was the same rate that it exchanged on Wednesday, August 5. However, in sharp contrast, Nairametrics forex tracker obtained a price as high as N486/$1 from some traders suggesting market volatility still persist.

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NAFEX: The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Thursday, closing at N385.50/$1.

• This represents an impressive N3.75 gain when compared to the N389.25 rate close that was reported on the last trading day, Wednesday, August 5.
• The opening indicative rate was N386.88 to a dollar on Thursday. This represents a 91 kobo gain when compared to the N387.79 to a dollar that was recorded on Wednesday.
• The Naira fell to as high as N393.05 during intraday trading before strengthening to the closed rate of N389. It also sold for as low as N383.75/$1 during intraday trading.

Forex is sold at several prices and at different times during the day.

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Forex Turnover: Meanwhile, forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window recorded a massive increase on Thursday, August 6, 2020, as it rose by 916.77% day on day.

• According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover increased from $10.49 million on Wednesday, August 5, 2020, to $106.66 million on Thursday, August 6, 2020.
• The forex turnover for the day is the highest daily volume recorded in about 3 weeks. The dollar supply which had remained weak improved significantly during the day’s trading.
• The average forex sale for last week was a low volume of about $32 million which is a slight improvement on the $27 million that was recorded the previous week. FX turnover which topped the $100 million mark after weeks of very low volume, still falls short of the over $200 million turnover that was recorded in January.
• Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of July was $937 million compared to $875 million in June.
• The exchange rate disparity between the official NAFEX rate and the black-market rate widened further on Thursday staying as wide as N88.5. Nigeria maintains multiple exchange rates comprising the CBN official rate, the BDC rates, SMIS, and the NAFEX (I&E window).

Exchange rate unification remains on the cards and yet to be implemented weeks after the central bank governor confirmed it will be executed.

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COVID-19 Pressures

Nigeria’s airspace remains closed to commercial international flight operations and won’t be open till October 2020. Foreign travel has often been a source of demand for the greenback.

• The recent demand for dollars at the parallel market is thought to be fueled by speculators.
• The parallel market also caters to forex trades through wire transfers especially for buyers who cannot fulfil their dollar demands at the I&E window or the SMIS window.
• The exchange rate for wired transfer is often at a premium to the black market rate.

Forex Challenges: Last few weeks have been most challenging for the foreign exchange market as it witnessed very low liquidity. The downward slide against the greenback and some other major currencies continued this week due to tightened liquidity in the system.

• According to a report from FSDH research, forex inflows into the I&E window had dropped significantly in the second quarter of 2020 on the back of lower foreign portfolio inflows.
• Although there was a slight improvement in the month of July, the turnover of $937 million is a far cry from the $3.19 billion, $5.02 billion and $3.7 billion turnover that was recorded in the months of January, February and March respectively before the lockdown which was triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
• The low oil prices have constrained the CBN’s capacity to intervene further in the foreign exchange market as dollar inflow still remains very low.

The exchange rate has faced significant pressure in both the NAFEX window and the black market. The pressure stemmed from declining external reserves and falling oil price

Nigeria’s top 10 agricultural export is estimated to have earned the country about N289.3 billion in one year (April 2019 – March 2020). This is according to data collected from various foreign trade reports, as compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

A cursory look at the data showed that Sesamum seeds and Cocoa remain Nigeria’s biggest agricultural exports, with the two products jointly accounting for over 60% of the entire agricultural exports in the country.

READ MORE: UPDATED: Nigeria’s foreign trade drops to N8.3 trillion, down by 18% in Q1 2020

Number Breakdown: Top ten Agricultural Exports in Nigeria

By operational definition, the NBS defined agricultural products as goods that come from the planting of crops and/or raring of animals. Here is the breakdown of Nigeria’s top agricultural exports and top destination countries.

• Sesamum seeds: Sesamum seeds, the tiny, oil-rich seeds, have been Nigeria’s agricultural export biggest earner for some years. During the period under review, Nigeria made the sum of N112.8 billion from the export of the products and this accounted for 38.9% of the top 10 agricultural products. Top destinations for the product include Japan, China, Turkey, India, and Vietnam.
• Cocoa Beans: Cocoa (Fermented, superior quality raw cocoa) exports is Nigeria’s second largest agricultural export. During the period under review, cocoa export was estimated to be N109.6 billion, accounting for 37.8% of the top agricultural exports. The top destinations for the product are Germany, Netherlands, Spain. Indonesia, Belgium, Malaysia, and Estonia.
• Cashew nuts (In shell and shelled): Cashew nuts are Nigeria’s 3rd biggest agricultural export product. In one year (March 2019 – March 2020), Nigeria generated a total sum of N38.2 billion from cashew nuts export. The top destinations are Vietnam, India, USA, Russia and the Netherlands.
• Frozen shrimps and prawns: Ranking 4th on the list, Frozen shrimps and prawns accounted for 3.4% of the biggest export in Nigeria, estimated to be N9.85 billion in the last one year. According to the breakdown, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Vietnam, and the USA are top destinations for the export of the products.
• Natural cocoa butter: Natural cocoa butter ranks as Nigeria’s 5th biggest agricultural export product within the period. Nigeria generated the sum of N7.69 billion as revenue proceed from the export of cocoa butter. Germany and Estonia are top destinations for the product
• Sesame oil and its fractions: Sesame oil, an edible vegetable oil derived from sesame seeds, ranks 6th on the list with an estimated export value of N3.1 billion
• Other agricultural products on the top 10 list include Cotton, Agro-food items, Other cut flowers & flower buds of kind suitable ornamental purposes and Ginger. During the period, a total sum of N2.53 billion was generated from Cotton export, Agro-food items (N1.97 billion), Cut flowers and flower buds (1.96 billion) and Ginger (N1.43 billion).

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Upshots: Nigeria’s Agric. export may experience the biggest contraction in 2020

As at the end of Q1 2020, Nigeria’s total foreign trade was estimated at N8.3 trillion, an 18% decline when compared to N10.12 trillion recorded in Q4 2019. The decline in foreign trade showed the earliest sign of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic that led to disruption in cross border trade.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s trade balance hits recession low, records N579 billion deficit in Q4 2019

Despite the gradual easing of lockdown in major economies, restrictions imposed on cross border movements still subsist and this may demand for the goods and commodity prices in the short to medium term.

On the flip side, Nigeria’s cocoa-industry association recently cut its output estimate for the 2020 main crop by 18%, citing the spread of the fungal black pod disease caused by heavy rains in the country’s main growing areas.

The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increase as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 45,244 confirmed cases.

On the 6th of August 2020, 354 new confirmed cases and 3 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 2,673 samples across the country.

To date, 45,244 cases have been confirmed, 32,430 cases have been discharged and 930 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 306,894 tests have been carried out as of August 6th, 2020 compared to 304,221 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 6th August 2020,

• Total Number of Cases – 45,244
• Total Number Discharged – 32,430
• Total Deaths – 930
• Total Tests Carried out – 306,894

According to the NCDC, the 354 new cases are reported from 17 states- FCT (78), Lagos (76), Kaduna (23), Ebonyi (19), Oyo (18), Nasarawa (17), Rivers (17), Delta (16), Kwara (15), Akwa Ibom (13), Edo (12), Ogun (12), Plateau (11), Kano (9), Bauchi (6), Borno (6), Ekiti (6).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 15,627, followed by Abuja (4,241), Oyo (2,825), Edo (2,340), Rivers (1,911), Kano (1,608), Delta (1,557), Kaduna (1,530), Ogun (1,428), Plateau (1,294), Ondo (1,243), Enugu (880), Ebonyi (838), Kwara (815), Katsina (746), Borno (634), Abia (625), Gombe (620), Osun (586), and Bauchi (574).

Imo State has recorded 472 cases, Nasarawa (360), Benue (356), Bayelsa (342),  Jigawa (322), Akwa Ibom (234), Niger (226), Adamawa (176), Ekiti (159), Sokoto (154), Anambra (142),  Kebbi (90), Zamfara (77), Taraba (72), Cross River (68), Yobe (67), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.

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