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Nigerian banks at risk due to debts by independent oil producers

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), about a third of loans by Nigerian banks were given to oil firms.

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Banking crisis imminent over debt by independent oil producers, Crude oil prices up 32% though report still paints gloomy picture Crude oil prices up 32% though report still paints gloomy picture, Hope for Higher Oil Prices., Nigeria’s oil crisis compounded as India’s fuel demand crash by 60% , Nigeria’s Bonny light hits $25 dollars, Saudi pledges more oil cuts 

The global oil crisis, which has caused a historic crash in crude oil prices, is currently affecting Nigeria’s indigenous crude oil-producing firms. This unfortunate situation is also believed to pose a serious threat to Nigerian banks.

What we know: A monitored report from Bloomberg suggests that these independent oil producing firms, which pump some 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day (about a fifth of the country’s crude oil output), risk causing some liquidity crisis among some of the local banks that finance them.

See the oil firms: Some  of the indigenous oil firms that are going through this financial crisis include Shoreline, Aiteo Group, Eroton Exploration & Production Company, Seplat Petroleum Development Company, and others.

The independent oil producing firms account for about 90% of the $8 billion that are being owed to financial institutions, including local banks. While a portion of those loans were hedged at $50 per barrel, a greater percentage of them were not. This, thereby, raises the risk of default by the oil firms.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), about a third of loans by the Nigerian banks were given to oil firms, although some of their transactions are hedged.

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(READ MORE: Nigeria’s bonny light crude price falls below Brent crude, WTI)

Why is this happening? The impact of the Coronavirus pandemic, coupled with the oil market crisis, has seen global crude oil prices crash far below the projected price for the year. While the Brent crude sold at slightly above $21 per barrel yesterday, Nigeria’s headline crude, Bonny Light, sold for slightly above $16 per barrel. In fact, the Bonny Light was earlier sold at a hugely discounted price of $10 per barrel due to the supply glut in the market and the issue of storage crisis.

Banking crisis imminent over debt by independent oil producers

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This will greatly affect the ability of the independent oil producers to meet up with their debt obligations to local banks, as they will need crude oil to sell between $35 and $40 per barrel in order to stay in business.

While commenting on the situation, the Chief Executive Officer of Shoreline Group, Kola Karim, said:

“Government needs to come up with the independents and the other oil producers, a financial rethink of the funding mechanics for the industry, if not we’ll see a total collapse which in turn will drag down the banks.”

(READ MORE: Nigerian crude producers smashed by low crude oil prices)

Meanwhile, some analysts are of the opinion that if this low crude oil price persists for about 6 months, a full-blown crisis will be experienced in the banking sector. Already, Nigerian banks are said to  be complaining about the N1.4 trillion debt they are owed. This is because the situation is making it difficult for them to meet regulatory cash reserve targets.

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Chike Olisah is a graduate of accountancy with over 15 years working experience in the financial service sector. He has worked in research and marketing departments of three top commercial banks. Chike is a senior member of the Nairametrics Editorial Team. You may contact him via his email- [email protected]

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Hospitality & Travel

34.5% decline in aviation jet fuel daily sufficiency, a worry for airline companies

Decline in daily aviation fuel sufficiency worry airlines as air passengers are expected to increase in the festive season.

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Airline operators will pay $3,500 per passenger if they break protocols – PTF COVID-19, Global Air passenger slump to persists til 2023- Moody’s 2023- Moody’s

The 34.5% decline in the daily sufficiency of aviation jet fuel may constitute a worry for airline companies in the country.

Considering that there is usually more people traveling due to the traditional Christmas and New Year festivities, resulting in increased flight patronage, the current total stock level appears to be low.

The observation is according to the daily petroleum products days sufficiency (total stock level data) compiled by the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA).

In line with the data available on the PPPRA website,

  • The current total stock level of Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK), also known as aviation jet fuel or Jet-A1, stands at 89.04 million litres.
  • Eleven days earlier, the total stock level was 135.83 million litres – indicating a 34.5% decline.
  • Before now and since the start of the 2020, total stock level has been relatively unstable, with the recent highest total stock level of 187.40 million litres recorded on the 2nd of October 2020 – indicating about 60 days sufficiency; and the lowest 54.96 million litres was recorded on the 17th of July – about 18 days sufficiency.
  • As at the time the latest report was released, 27th November 2020, the total ATK stock was land-based stock.
  • Checks indicate there has been no receipt of ATK from the 19th of November, after the last receipt of 5.56 million litres on the 18th of November.

What they are saying

Speaking to Nairametrics regarding the decline, the MD/CEO of Jushad Oil and Gas Ltd, Mr. Bosun Paseda, submitted that the decline is due to the continuous increase in the exchange rate.

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He said, “The exchange rate is very high and unstable. You will discover that importers do not have access to the CBN rate and have to make recourse to the parallel market. The landing cost is currently higher than the rate we sell at the airport. That’s why marketers do not want to bring the product.

“Scarcity is likely to set in, but the reason there is no scarcity yet is because people are not really flying. If it stays the same, then scarcity may set in, when travel increases.”

Responding to the question on whether the decline in stock has affected the price of the product, Mr Paseda noted that it has not really affected the price of the product as consumption is currently low.

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What you should know

Nairametrics recently reported that oil markets yearned for airlines to resume operations following several months of not operating due to the Covid-19 pandemic travel restrictions.

  • Aside from the loss of revenues to airline companies, the call was necessary considering that Jet fuel demand averages about 8 million barrels per day worldwide – indicating that oil companies were also not recording enough revenues.
  • As a result of the pandemic, the International Energy Agency expects demand for Jet fuel and Kerosene to fall by 2.1 million bpd on average in 2020. This has, however, improved following lifting of travel restrictions in many countries.

Now that flights have resumed operations, it appears airline companies in the country may be in line to face another hurdle before the year runs out. The likelihood of facing this hurdle is highly contingent on receipt of ATK used in powering flights and increased travels. If things remain the same in terms of daily sufficiency of ATK needed to power their flights, scarcity may set in.

  • Remember that the lowest ATK of 54.96 million litres – about 18 days sufficiency, recorded on the 17th of July, was during travel restrictions. The decline in that period didn’t create concerns and it picked up days later.

What this means

  • With the national average daily consumption of ATK three million litres, this depicts that current total stock level of 89.04 million litres will only sustain for about 30 days, all things being equal.
  • Even though it appears this stock level is good, the steady decline in the stock level as illustrated in the graph above raises immediate concerns.
  • Also, one may conclude that receipt of ATK has stalled in recent days, having received only a total of 12.68 million litres in the last two weeks, since 12th November. This observation appears to denote that should the product receipt trend continue, scarcity may occur in the near future.

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Economy & Politics

Governors to meet on Wednesday over rising insecurity

The governors of the 36 States of the federation will hold an emergency virtual meeting to discuss growing insecurity in the country.

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Oil Price Crash: Governors to meet on budgetary and economic issues, Insecurity: Governors to meet on Wednesday over rising insecurity

The Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) has announced that the Governors of the 36 States will hold an emergency virtual meeting to discuss the recent killings and kidnappings by terrorist groups, and agree on a new national security plan to secure the lives of citizens.

This was disclosed in a statement by Head, Media and Public Affairs of the NGF, Mr Abdulrazaque Bello-Barkindo, on Monday in Abuja.

(READ MORE: Labour leaders reportedly walk-out on Ministers over fuel, electricity price hike)

The NGF disclosed in its statement that the Governors would also receive updates on the events following the disbandment of the SARS alongside the rising insecurity.

Other issues that will be discussed by the Governors include:

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  • CACOVID funding palliatives and updates across the states.
  • Joint meetings between the CBN and Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai, on accessing pension funds to finance infrastructure development.
  • Updates on the ASUU strike. Issues related to Stamp Duty and the Water Resources Bill will also be discussed at the meeting.

What you should know 

There has been a rise in reported cases of kidnappings and killings by terrorists groups and bandits, especially in Northern Nigeria.

Nairametrics reported earlier that President Muhammadu Buhari had condemned the killing of farmers by Boko Haram on Saturday. The President added that the Federal Government had given the armed forces support to tackle insecurity in the country.

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Coronavirus

Covid-19: FG to reduce fatalities by strengthening capacity – Health Minister

The Minister said that the ministry plans to increase its capacity to battle the disease through personnel supervision.

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Minster for health, FG ignores travel ban calls despite Uganda, US, others move against coronavirus, FG reports 10 new cases of COVID-19, COVID-19: FG to inaugurate 18-man vaccine task team

The Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) has announced plans to reduce case fatalities of the Covid-19 pandemic by focusing on improving the capability to manage the virus.

This was disclosed by the Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire, during the daily Joint National Briefing of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on Covid-19 in Abuja.

The Minister said that the ministry plans to increase its capacity to battle the disease through personnel supervision.

He said, “We hope to reduce case fatalities by strengthening our capacity to manage cases, but it is only possible if persons test themselves early. All cases, whether home-based or institutional are to be supervised by medical personnel. This is particularly  important, given the threat posed by the spiralling rate of infection in countries with which Nigeria has strong political, business, social, and family relations.”

(READ MORE: FG may stop interstate and inter-town travels)

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He urged Nigerians to cut off travel to high-risk countries, as the travel rate determines the risk the ministry could contain with.

“There is a correspondingly high volume of travel between Nigeria and those countries, which is what also determines the risk. I also urge all Nigerians to cut off all travels, especially international travels, most especially travels to high risk countries, except it is very urgent.”

He stated that it might take Nigeria a while before securing the vaccines, even though the country had started the process of securing access to a vaccine.

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“Although we are positioning our country for access to the Covid-19 vaccine, it may still take a while for countries to access it and for all citizens to be vaccinated. It is, therefore, more realistic that we adopt preventive measures which have proven to be successful in controlling the pandemic,” Ehanire added.

What you should know: Nairametrics reported in October that Dr. Ehanire said Nigeria increased its daily testing capacity for Covid-19 to over 3,500/day.

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