The COVID-19 outbreak, which has been spreading rapidly, has come with a devastating global impact. This coronavirus pandemic has become a global threat, increasing from 197,590 infections and 7,954 deaths in March 17, 2020, to 2,350,075 infections and 161,270 deaths as at April 19, 2020—barely a month.
The bid to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease has led to lockdowns and travel restrictions across countries globally, with Nigeria also being affected.
The lockdown directives have led to the shutdown of many businesses, especially those that cannot be performed from homes. Only businesses proffering essential services have been exempted from the lockdown directive; hence, the nation’s economy is adversely affected.
While speaking yesterday during a live webinar presentation organized by FCMB Plc on the topic, “COVID-19 and Economic Downturn Response,” Nairametrics’ Founder, Ugochukwu Obi-Chukwu, listed a couple of sectors that will be negatively impacted by the outbreak.
Some of those listed sectors, which are very critical to the economy, include:
Tourism and Aviation: This has been one of the hardest-hit sectors, as the lockdown and travel restrictions have caused a huge slump in demand among travellers. Most of the local and foreign airlines have suspended operations, with all the airports under a shutdown order by the Federal Government. As of March, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) had reported an estimated revenue loss of $252 billion in the sector globally.
Hospitality Industry: It is no secret that the hospitality industry is one of the sectors that have been hit the hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic, with many of the employees either out of work or losing hours due to travel restrictions, the shutdown of businesses, and social distancing. The hotels have been experiencing very low patronage.
Cinemas and Entertainment: The film and entertainment industry, in general, has experienced substantial negative impact; movie theatres have been shut down, art exhibitions, movie premiers and musical concerts have either been cancelled or postponed. In fact, multi-billion naira worth of deals has been lost in the sector.
Oil and Gas Industry: The sector has been badly hit by the pandemic, since the lockdown and travel restrictions have led to a huge drop in oil demand and crash in crude oil prices globally. Even the intervention of OPEC+ and top oil-producing countries through output cut has still not impacted on oil prices or stabilized the market.
Real Estate and Construction: With the drop in income and loss of jobs, very little interest in acquiring houses will be shown by property buyers. Also, the movement restrictions and social distancing will adversely affect construction activities nationwide with organizations and individuals trying to apply safety measures.
Trade: This will be negatively impacted, owing to the shutdown of factories, reduced access to raw materials and commodities due to supply chain challenges. Trillions of naira worth of trade for both imports and exports will be lost due to the lockdowns, seaports and border closure. As China, is crucial to global trade with its current integration in the global value chain and main supplier and buyers of intermediate inputs, the disruptions it is dealing with due to the disease will affect trade.
Manufacturing: The disease will impact negatively on the manufacturing sector, as production lines and factories will be shut down due to the lockdown and low consumer purchases.
Start-ups and Small businesses: entrepreneurs are forced to take drastic steps in order to remain in business. The preventive measures taken by the government have left startups as one of the most vulnerable.
Consultants and Services: Consultants and service providers will be negatively affected, as the drop in revenue by companies and even government institutions due to the economic meltdown will lead to tightening of budgets which will negatively affect the consultants.
#EndSARS: FG expects increase in Covid-19 cases in the next 2 weeks
FG has warned that the ongoing #EndSARS protest may spark up a second wave of coronavirus.
The Federal Government has warned that Nigerians should expect an increase in the number of coronavirus cases across the country in the next 2 weeks.
This is due to the total disregard of the preventive measures against the virus during the ongoing nationwide #EndSARS protest which has been witnessing huge gatherings.
This disclosure was made by the Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on Covid-19, who is also the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Boss Mustapha, at the national briefing of the task force in Abuja on Monday, October 20, 2020.
He said despite the appreciable success recorded so far in the fight against COVID-19, the ongoing protest may spark up a second wave of the virus.
Mustapha said, “I can say it authoritatively that with the ongoing protest across the country, in the next two weeks the cases of COVID-19 would have increased. Each and everyone that attended the protest and did not put up any form of protection is likely going to spread the virus. When people contract the virus during the protest gathering, they will go back home and spread it.
“This is one of the reasons why we must be extremely careful when we congregate because when you gather together in such an atmosphere where people don’t wear face masks or maintain the social distance you are creating a potential opportunity for carriers to spread the virus.
“So far we have done pretty well as a country but this protest is like a setback and we must avoid a situation where we will have a resurgence. Countries that thought they have overcome are dealing with the second wave. We are extremely lucky as a nation and we should be careful of any situation that can warrant the second wave.”
He said any mass gathering that does not adhere to the non-pharmaceutical interventions that have been put in place, like wearing of face masks, social distancing, and keeping personal hygiene, becomes a super spreader event.
What it means: With the expected spike in the number of Covid-19 cases due to these protests across the country, Nigeria runs the risk of having a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak which had before now been on a decline. This could lead to the resumption of lockdown measures by the government, in order to contain the spread of the pandemic.
COVID-19 Update in Nigeria
On the 19th of October 2020, 118 new confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria
The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record increases as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 61,558 confirmed cases.
On the 19th of October 2020, 118 new confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 11,794 samples across the country.
To date, 61,558 cases have been confirmed, 56,697 cases have been discharged and 1125 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 590,635 tests have been carried out as of October 19th, 2020 compared to 578,841 tests a day earlier.
COVID-19 Case Updates- 19th October 2020,
- Total Number of Cases – 61,558
- Total Number Discharged – 56,697
- Total Deaths – 1,1125
- Total Tests Carried out – 590,635
According to the NCDC, The 118 new cases are reported from 10 states – Lagos (51), Rivers (26), Imo (12), Osun (8), Plateau (6), FCT (5), Kaduna (4), Ogun (3), Edo (2), Niger (1)
Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 20,696, followed by Abuja (5,923), Plateau (3,587), Oyo (3,415), Rivers (2,735), Edo (2,645), Kaduna (2,532), Ogun (1,983), Delta (1,812), Kano (1,741), Ondo (1,657), Enugu (1,313), Kwara (1,050), Ebonyi (1,049), Osun (916), Katsina (904), Abia (898), Gombe (883). Borno (745), and Bauchi (710).
Imo State has recorded 610 cases, Benue (484), Nasarawa (478), Bayelsa (403), Ekiti (329), Jigawa (325), Akwa Ibom (295), Anambra (275), Niger (274), Adamawa (248), Sokoto (162), Taraba (117), Kebbi (93), Cross River (87), Zamfara and Yobe (79), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.
Lock Down and Curfew
In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.
The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.
On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.
On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.
China’s economy bounces back from COVID-19 slump, with a growth of 4.9% in Q3 2020
The Chinese economy has seen a growth of 4.9% between July and September, rising from the slump of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Chinese economy has continued to show stronger recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, as its economy saw growth of 4.9% between July and September – Q3 2020, compared to the same quarter last year. However, the figure is lower than the 5.2% projected by most international economists.
China is now leading the charge for a global recovery based on its latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The near 5% growth is a far cry from the slump the Chinese economy suffered at the start of 2020 when the pandemic first emerged.
China’s trade figures for September also pointed to a stronger recovery, with exports growing by 9.9% and imports growing by 13.2% compared to September last year.
It appears to be a broadening recovery with the important services sector rebounding. Domestic tourists and travelers have probably helped the recovery continue by spending their money at home because global restrictions mean they can’t yet go abroad. With international travel severely restricted, millions of Chinese have been traveling and spending domestically.
What you should know
- While the COVID-19 pandemic has hampered the year’s growth targets, China remains in a trade war with the US and it has relatively hurt its economy.
- For the first three months of the year, China’s economy shrank by 6.8% when it saw nationwide shutdowns of factories and manufacturing plants. It was the first time China’s economy contracted since it started recording quarterly figures in 1992.
- Over the previous two decades, China had seen an average economic growth rate of about 9%; although, the pace has gradually been slowing.
- There were 637m trips in China over the eight-day holiday which generated revenue of 466.6bn RMB ($69.6bn, £53.8bn), according to data from its Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
- Duty-free sales in the tropical island province of Hainan more than doubled from last year, soaring by nearly 150% according to the local customs data.
What they are saying
According to Iris Pang, Chief China Economist for ING in Hong Kong, “I don’t think the headline number is bad. Job creation in China is quite stable which creates more consumption.”
According to Robin Brant, BBC China correspondent, “China’s economy continues to grow at rates unimaginable in other Covid-hit countries. Draconian lockdown measures to control the virus combined with some government stimulus appeared to have worked well. While the growth of 4.9% is slightly below some forecasts, industrial output – a good barometer of state-controlled activity, came in above expectations”
According to Yoshikiyo Shimamine, Chief Economist at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, “China’s economy remains on the recovery path, driven by a rebound in exports, but we cannot say it has completely shaken off the drag caused by the coronavirus.”
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