The demand for crude oil might be significantly affected by the coronavirus, which recently broke out in China. The disease, which has gradually been spreading from the Asian country to the United States and United Kingdom, could result to a fall of 260,000 crude oil barrels per day.
The new projection and warning came from the Senior Commodity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, Damien Courvalin. The impact is linked to the jet fuel market as air travelling from Asia might reduce due to the coronavirus.
“Ultimately we expect jet fuel markets — including cracks, regrade and Asian differentials — to decline most if this outbreak persists given the likely decline in regional air travel,” Courvalin said.
Some analysts disagree with Goldman: While Goldman Sachs believes the drop will be as projected, other analyst at Energy Aspects, a London-based consultancy firm, think the fall in crude oil will not be significant. Their reason was due to countries not taking the same action taken during the SARS crisis in 2002-2003. Countries at that time were compelled to issue restrictions on travel and trade.
“While the SARS outbreak was estimated to have impacted up to 0.26 mbpd of oil demand globally, according to anecdotal reports, we currently do not expect global oil demand to fall significantly as a result of the coronavirus,” Energy Aspects said in a research note.
Voluntary trip cancellation expected: Energy Aspects might not expect huge impact on the crude oil market but it didn’t rule out the possibility that some countries might cancel air trips voluntarily even though the disease has largely been in China, with minor cases reported in US and UK.
“The World Health Organisation is currently hesitant to declare the coronavirus a public health emergency, meaning airline cancellations remain unlikely.” So, the coronavirus might not negatively impact jet fuel as projected in some quarters.
What’s the worst-case scenario? Despite not fully backing a significant impact on transportation fuel, Energy Aspects said jet fuel demand growth could slow to 20,000 bpd year-on-year if China takes more aggressive approach in curbing the disease.
According to the firm in a report by Punch, “In a worst-case scenario that assumes the outbreak spreads across the nation, we expect jet demand growth to slow to 20,000 bpd year-on-year after having grown by 75 thousand bpd year-on-year in H2 2019.”
Countries’ coronavirus currently affects: Apart from the US and the UK, two more countries in the Asian continent, Japan and South Korea have been battling with the virus which came from China’s Wuhan, a capital with 11 million people. Already, 17 deaths and 582 cases have been confirmed, leading to the shutdown on Wuhan and some other cities by the Chinese government.
Covid-19: US to have enough vaccines for vulnerable Americans by end of 2020
The US said it is likely to have enough safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines to inoculate Americans by the end of 2020.
The United States, On Wednesday, revealed that the country is likely to have enough safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines available to inoculate the most vulnerable Americans by the end of 2020.
The U.S. government is cautiously optimistic that one or two vaccines, likely from Pfizer Inc or Moderna Inc, will be available by the end of the year, and can begin to be distributed to Americans, officials said during a news conference.
This was disclosed by the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, on Wednesday, October 22, 2020.
Azar said he expected that all seniors, healthcare workers, and first responders would be able to receive vaccines as soon as January, with the rest of the American public able to get vaccines by April.
Companies participating in the U.S. government’s effort to develop vaccines for COVID-19, dubbed Operation Warp Speed, have begun developing manufacturing capabilities even before any vaccination has been authorized by regulators.
Nairametrics had reported that in an open letter, the Chief Executive Officer of Pfizer Inc, Albert Bourla, disclosed that it could seek emergency use authorization of Covid-19 vaccine in the US by late November, after the US presidential election.
The coronavirus outbreak has been worsening in recent weeks as cold weather pushes Americans indoors, raising the chance of contracting the virus. Some 38 U.S. states and two territories have reported rising case counts. More than 8 million Americans have been infected with the novel coronavirus and more than 200,000 have died.
What this means: This announcement rules out the assertion by US President, Donald Trump, that a Covid-19 vaccine would be ready before the Presidential election. This is also a huge boost for the country, which has suffered the heaviest casualties globally from the pandemic.
IGP orders immediate withdrawal of police officers attached to VIPs
The IGP has ordered the immediate withdrawal of police officers attached to all VIPs across the country.
The Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Mohammed Adamu, has ordered the immediate withdrawal of police officers who are attached to all Very Important Persons (VIPs) across the country.
According to media reports, those exempted from the IGP’s directive, are police officers attached to Government Houses, the Senate President, and the Speaker House of Representatives.
The directive was contained in a police wireless message dated October 21, 2020, that was sent virtually to Zonal Assistant Inspector General of Police and State Commissioners of Police with reference number, CB:4001/DOPS/SPU/FHQ/ABU/VOL./ORDER.
The statement said, “any commander who violates this order will bear the consequences.”
This is new directive is coming barely 10 days after the police authorities disbanded the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), following nationwide protests against the squad for high handedness and extrajudicial killings.
The signal, which was signed by the AIG POL, Protect, Force Headquarters, Abuja, partly read, “Any protect personnel found escorting or guarding any VIP with or without a firearm is deemed to be deployed by the commander and the commander will be sanctioned.”
It further directed the affected personnel to report to their respective command Commissioners of Police.
It can be recalled that successive IGPs have issued similar orders in the past, which were barely implemented.
In another development, the IGP has sent emissaries to the Chairman, Police Service Commission (PSC), Musiliu Smith, in a bid to have a smooth working relationship with the retired police boss.
It was gathered that two former IGs, Mike Okiro and Suleiman Abba; visited the PSC Chairman at his office in Abuja on Wednesday, following Smith’s refusal to meet with Adamu on several occasions.
A source explained that Okiro and Abba spent over three hours trying to persuade Smith to reconcile with the IG, who has been at loggerheads with the PSC over the recruitment of constables into the Nigeria Police Force.
What this means: This appears to be part of measures aimed at kick-starting the much talked about reforms in the Nigerian Police Force. The full implementation of this order will make more police officers available to provide security to Nigerians as a huge number of the force provides security to private individuals and companies, in a country that is greatly under policed.
COVID-19 Update in Nigeria
On the 21st of October 2020, 37 new confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria
The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record increases as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 61,667 confirmed cases.
On the 21st of October 2020, 37 new confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 4,648 samples across the country.
To date, 61,667 cases have been confirmed, 56,880 cases have been discharged and 1,125 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 595,283 tests have been carried out as of October 21st, 2020 compared to 590,635 tests a day earlier.
COVID-19 Case Updates- 21st October 2020,
- Total Number of Cases – 61,667
- Total Number Discharged – 56,880
- Total Deaths – 1,1125
- Total Tests Carried out – 595,283
According to the NCDC, the 37 new cases were reported from 9 states – FCT (8), Lagos (7), Taraba (5), Rivers (5), Adamawa (4) Kaduna (3), Anambra (2), Osun (2), Ogun (1).
Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 20,733, followed by Abuja (5,943), Plateau (3,587), Oyo (3,421), Rivers (2,742), Edo (2,648), Kaduna (2,572), Ogun (1,987), Delta (1,812), Kano (1,741), Ondo (1,659), Enugu (1,314), Kwara (1,050), Ebonyi (1,049), Osun (918), Katsina (904), Abia (898), Gombe (883). Borno (745), and Bauchi (710).
Imo State has recorded 607 cases, Benue (484), Nasarawa (478), Bayelsa (403), Ekiti (329), Jigawa (325), Akwa Ibom (295), Anambra (277), Niger (274), Adamawa (248), Sokoto (162), Taraba (117), Kebbi (93), Cross River (87), Zamfara and Yobe (79), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.
Lock Down and Curfew
In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.
The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.
On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.
On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.