Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window appreciated significantly to N385.50 during intraday trading on Thursday, August 6, 2020. In another development, the exchange rate at the parallel market remained unchanged on Thursday as it closed at N474/$1 after exchanging as high as N486/$1.

Market Watch

Parallel Market: At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained unchanged against the dollar for a second consecutive day to close at N474/$1 on Thursday, according to information from Abokifx, a prominent FX tracking website. This was the same rate that it exchanged on Wednesday, August 5. However, in sharp contrast, Nairametrics forex tracker obtained a price as high as N486/$1 from some traders suggesting market volatility still persist.

NAFEX: The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Thursday, closing at N385.50/$1.

• This represents an impressive N3.75 gain when compared to the N389.25 rate close that was reported on the last trading day, Wednesday, August 5.
• The opening indicative rate was N386.88 to a dollar on Thursday. This represents a 91 kobo gain when compared to the N387.79 to a dollar that was recorded on Wednesday.
• The Naira fell to as high as N393.05 during intraday trading before strengthening to the closed rate of N389. It also sold for as low as N383.75/$1 during intraday trading.

Forex is sold at several prices and at different times during the day.

Forex Turnover: Meanwhile, forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window recorded a massive increase on Thursday, August 6, 2020, as it rose by 916.77% day on day.

• According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover increased from $10.49 million on Wednesday, August 5, 2020, to $106.66 million on Thursday, August 6, 2020.
• The forex turnover for the day is the highest daily volume recorded in about 3 weeks. The dollar supply which had remained weak improved significantly during the day’s trading.
• The average forex sale for last week was a low volume of about $32 million which is a slight improvement on the $27 million that was recorded the previous week. FX turnover which topped the $100 million mark after weeks of very low volume, still falls short of the over $200 million turnover that was recorded in January.
• Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of July was $937 million compared to $875 million in June.
• The exchange rate disparity between the official NAFEX rate and the black-market rate widened further on Thursday staying as wide as N88.5. Nigeria maintains multiple exchange rates comprising the CBN official rate, the BDC rates, SMIS, and the NAFEX (I&E window).

Exchange rate unification remains on the cards and yet to be implemented weeks after the central bank governor confirmed it will be executed.

COVID-19 Pressures

Nigeria’s airspace remains closed to commercial international flight operations and won’t be open till October 2020. Foreign travel has often been a source of demand for the greenback.

• The recent demand for dollars at the parallel market is thought to be fueled by speculators.
• The parallel market also caters to forex trades through wire transfers especially for buyers who cannot fulfil their dollar demands at the I&E window or the SMIS window.
• The exchange rate for wired transfer is often at a premium to the black market rate.

Forex Challenges: Last few weeks have been most challenging for the foreign exchange market as it witnessed very low liquidity. The downward slide against the greenback and some other major currencies continued this week due to tightened liquidity in the system.

• According to a report from FSDH research, forex inflows into the I&E window had dropped significantly in the second quarter of 2020 on the back of lower foreign portfolio inflows.
• Although there was a slight improvement in the month of July, the turnover of $937 million is a far cry from the $3.19 billion, $5.02 billion and $3.7 billion turnover that was recorded in the months of January, February and March respectively before the lockdown which was triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
• The low oil prices have constrained the CBN’s capacity to intervene further in the foreign exchange market as dollar inflow still remains very low.

The exchange rate has faced significant pressure in both the NAFEX window and the black market. The pressure stemmed from declining external reserves and falling oil price

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has announced the resumption of its Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Savings Bond Offer with effect from August 10, 2020.

This disclosure was made in a press statement by the Debt Management Office to the general public.

The DMO was earlier forced to suspend the monthly offers of the FGN Savings Bond in April 2020, due to the lockdown and restrictions placed on social and economic activities as part of measures implemented by government to contain the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic.

The statement from the Debt Management Office said:

“The DMO wishes to announce the resumption of its offer of the federal government of Nigeria savings bond (FGN savings bond) effective August 2020.

“The DMO was constrained to suspend the monthly offers of the FGN savings bond in April 2020 due to the restrictions on activities and movement as part of measures adopted by the government to curtail the spread of COVID-19.

“The offer for subscription will open on Monday, August 10, 2020 and close on Friday, August 14, 2020.’’

The statement also encouraged investors to continue to save through the FGN Savings Bond. This is because FGN Savings Bonds attract good returns and are secure, being a Sovereign instrument. They also contribute to national development.

Nairametrics had on April 4, 2020, reported the suspension of the FGN Savings Bond offer by DMO which was scheduled for April 6 –April 10., due to the restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The DMO assured that the Bond offers were going to resume when the conditions change.

The DMO, however, noted that the suspension of the April 2020 Offer would not affect Coupon Payments due to investors for already issued FGN Securities, as arrangements had been made to ensure that all Coupon Payments for and redemptions of FGN Securities were made as and when due to investors’ designated accounts.

Data obtained from Whales Alert, a crypto analytic tracker, shows that a Bitcoin whale has moved 92,857 BTCs valued around N1.09 billion. The BTCs were transferred from one unknown wallet to another unknown wallet, on Thursday.

🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 92,857 #BTC (1,092,603,630 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

Tx: https://t.co/MN26j7aEk8

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) August 6, 2020

Note that BTC whales are on the rise as Bitcoin approaches the $12,000 price level.

Data obtained from Coin360, another crypto analytic firm, have shown that the flagship currency is presently around the $12,000 price level, with a market capitalization of about $219.60 billion

Why this is happening: Global investors and crypto-traders are now cashing in on some of their profits, as the crypto market is washed with cheap money coming from stimulus packages from global central banks.

While it is difficult to predict market movements, BTC whales have shown historically that they often determine the BTC trend.

Quick fact: At the BTC market, investors or traders who own large amounts of bitcoins are typically known as Bitcoin whales. This means that a BTC whale would be an individual or business entity (with a single Bitcoin address) owning around 1000 Bitcoins or more.

As BTC whales accumulate BTCs, bitcoin’s circulating supply reduces, and this can weaken any bearish trend bitcoin finds itself in. Meaning that over time, it’s possible that as BTC approaches its fixed supply of 21 million, the price of BTC will go up, with BTC’s present demand factored in.

The percentage of supply owned by entities holding less than 10 $BTC grew from 5.1% to 13.8% in 5 years, while the percent held by entities with 100-100k BTC declined from 62.9% to 49.8%.

BTC’s Daily Active Addresses continue to climb, and this will be a key fundamental factor in reaching price levels unseen in over two and a half years (January 2018).