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How to Select Dividend Stocks in Nigeria market

The first step in hunting for and evaluating/analyzing dividend paying stocks is to look for list of dividend stocks in Nigeria.

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Nigerian stocks record worst quarterly drop since 2009

In a period where investors are not too hopeful of profiting through unrealized gains due to the poor performance of the market, it stands to reason, that the only chance of making profit in the market is to hunt for yields.

Yields can come from investments in bonds and other fixed income securities or from investing in high dividend stocks. Finding dividend stocks to invest in may not be that easy but with the process elucidated below, you can conformably find some dividend stocks that can keep you afloat the market and help you ride the tides in the market.

Dividend Stocks List

The first step in hunting for and evaluating/analyzing dividend paying stocks is to look for list of dividend stocks in Nigeria. There are some sources that provide information on dividends declared and/or paid within a given time period. For example, Nairametrics publishes a “list of dividends declared so far in 2019” from time to time. The corporate action page of the Nigeria Stock exchange website also has such lists. Those can form a basis of your research on dividend stocks.

The unfortunate thing about these lists and other data or information on dividends in Nigeria is that they lack information on dividend yield, dividend payout ratio or dividend growth rate. Those are some of the data that you need to evaluate the different dividend stocks you may select from the list of dividends. Be that as it may, you may be able to gather these required data elsewhere or by doing some minimal or not too complex calculations.

Dividend Yield

From the list of dividends, compare the dividend yields (where available) among the stocks. If not available, look for the dividend yield of those stocks that may be of interest to you.

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Dividend yield is simply an indication of how much a company pays out in relation to its stock price.

Mathematically, it is dividend per share divided by price per share of the company of interest.

Dividend yields of Nigerian stocks can be supplied on demand by Quantitative Financial Analytics, but you have to ask for it, at least for now.

[Read Also: How to use profits to determine what stock to buy]

Note that selection should not be based solely on dividend yield as low-priced stocks tend to have high dividend yield and dividend yields tend to rise as stock prices fall.

Dividend Payment History

In looking for dividend stocks, it is advisable to pay attention to the dividend payment history of companies because you would not want to invest in companies that pay dividends once in a while rather than consistently.

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Consistent dividend paying stocks are not only dependable for income but also send signals about the financial wellbeing of the company. Unfortunately, there is little or no database that contains information on dividend history of companies in Nigeria, but Quantitative Financial Analysis has the information from 2015 to date.

Dividend Growth Rate

As an investor with the goal of maximizing investment returns, you should not only pay attention to consistency of dividend payments as in dividend payment history, also take note of dividend growth rates.

Dividend growth rate is the annualized percentage change in dividends paid over a period of time, usually yearly. 

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As a rational investor, you would prefer to invest in companies that grow their dividends from year to year. Meaning that it is better to invest in a company that pays N10 dividend in year one and say N15 in year two than one that consistently pays N10 per share dividend each year. Worst still is a company that pays less dividend in year two than they paid in year one.

Dividend growth is also important because analysis use that information in calculating the future value or price of a stock. Stocks of companies that grow their dividends are usually valued higher than those that do not grow their dividend. By investing in such companies, you do not only benefit from the dividend growth, you also benefit from the increased valuation which gets translated into increased unrealized gain.

Payout Ratio

Another important variable that you should pay attention to when selecting dividend stock is the payout ratio.

Payout ratio is an indication of what proportion or percentage of a company’s earnings that are paid out as dividend.

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If a company has a dividend payout ratio of 45%, for example, it shows that 45% of its earnings for the year was paid to shareholders as dividend that year. Dividend payout ratio is calculated as divided per share divided by earnings per share (EPS) multiplied by 100 to translate it into percentage. Although analysts are divided as to whether a higher dividend payout ratio is better or not.

[Read Also: 10 Actions That Can Make You a Successful Investor]

Some have argued that it is better to retain the money and reinvest it in the company while others are of the opinion that a high payout ratio is an indication that the board of directors of a company have confidence in the financial well being of the company, yet, others think that it shows that the board does not have any meaningful and profitable investment into which to put its retained earnings. From an investors’ perspective, growth-oriented investors seem to prefer that the earnings be retained and reinvested in more profitable ventures in the company while divided or income investors prefer that the earnings be paid out as dividends. Therefore, as a dividend investor, look for companies with high payout ratio.

Calculate Future Dividend

Having gathered the above-mentioned information, the next is to project how much the future dividend will be.

To estimate future dividend, multiply current dividend by 1 plus the dividend growth rate.

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For example, Access Bank Plc paid a N0.55 dividend in 2016, and N0.65 in 2017 giving a dividend growth rate of 18%, to estimate the 2018 dividend, multiply 2017 dividend of 0.65 by 1.18 to arrive at N0.77.  Another way to project future dividend is to multiply current dividend yield by the dividend growth rate to come up with future dividend yield for the stock of interest.

Conclusion

Though many companies in Nigeria have shown negative dividend growth over time, it is believed that there are still some out there that grow their dividends each year and by using the process enumerated above, you can uncover dividend stocks that are worth your money. Again, if companies know or realize that investors are taking dividend growth into consideration, the tendency to not grow dividends will be curtailed.

Uchenna Ndimele is the President of Quantitative Financial Analytics Ltd. MutualfundsAfrica.com and mutualfundsnigeria.com (both Quantitative Financial Analytics company website) is a leader in supplying mutual fund information, analysis, and commentary on African mutual funds. We provide reliable fund data; and ratings information that will add value to fund managers, the media, individual investors and investment clubs.

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Currencies

DEVALUATION: CBN updates website to official rate of N360/$1

The central bank of Nigeria has devalued its official exchange rate from N307/$1 to N360/$1.

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CBN website states oil price is still $61, Naira under pressure as Nigeria records poor export earnings, 4 key sectors the CBN plans to pump money into

Just as Nairametrics reported, the Central Bank of Nigeria has devalued its official exchange rate from N307/$1 to N360/$1. The apex bank has now reflected this change on its website signaling a confirmation. The bank is yet to issue a press release to this effect.

The CBN has now officially devalued by 15% moving from N307/$1 to N360/$1. Depreciation at the “market-determined” I&E window is 5% having moved from N360/$1 to N380/$1

Devaluation: Nairametrics reported yesterday that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sold dollars to banks at N380/$1 in a move signifying a devaluation of the currency. Banks trading at the Investor and Exporter (I&E) window bought dollars at N360/$1 from the CBN on Friday, March 20, 2020. The I&E window is the official market where forex is traded between banks, the CBN, foreign investors, and businesses. The central bank typically buys or sells in the market as part of its intervention program.

The CBN has updated its website with the official exchange rate.

Nairametrics also got hold of a letter from the CBN to banks informing them of the new exchange rate for dollars flowing from the International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs). According to the CBN, IMTOs will sell to banks at N376/$1 while banks will sell to the CBN at N377/$1. The CBN will sell to BDC’s at N378/$1 while the BDC’s will sell to end-users at “no more than” N380/$1.

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Single Exchange Rate: A report yesterday also suggested that the CBN also planned to move to a single exchange rate policy for determining the price of the dollar. A senior central bank official who does not want to be identified, said, ‘Today we allowed the rate at the importer and exporters (I&E) window to adjust in response to market developments.’

The central bank has now made an apparent u-turn after it had initially that the “market fundamentals do not support naira devaluation at this time” detailing reasons why it did not need to devalue.

Falling oil price: Oil prices fell to under $20 on Friday before climbing back up to settle at $23 per barrel. Nigeria’s Bonny light trades at $26 while the benchmark Brent crude trades at $29 per barrel. In response to the crash in oil price, Nigeria’s announced a cut to its 2020 budget by N1.5 trillion as it faced the reality of a potential drop in its revenues. Nairametrics also has information that state governments are getting jittery about their ability to sustain salary payments as a reduction in their federal allocation “FAAC” is anticipated.

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Career tips

Investment options for salary earners

Investment options for the salary earners
#Investing #Entrepreneurs #Investment #Salary #Wages

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Investment options for salary earners - bank loan

Recently, one of the readers of my articles asked to know what investment options are open to salary earners. A salaried individual is like everyone else except that he or she has a fixed monthly income. This implies that their investments and expenses have to be managed strictly according to their fixed monthly income.

Since salary is assumed to be the only source of income for the salaried, it is advisable that such an individual fortify himself financially before investing so that adverse investment performance will not have untold effect on him and his family. Therefore, if you are a salaried prospective investor, you need to:

Get life insurance

Most families in Nigeria are single income families so much such that if anything bad happens to the income earner, the family gets shattered, at least financially. Again, given the risks inherent in capital market investments, it is only prudent to have a life insurance as a first step in one’s investment journey. It is very baffling to see many investors very deep into the market, yet they do not have life insurance.

[Read Also: Understanding the risks in bond investing]

Life insurance is and should be a basic part of any financial plan. Life insurance is a protection for loved ones against financial hardship arising from the death of a breadwinner. This is even more important today than ever before with high cost of funeral expenses, college education and medical bills. So, the first investment option for a salaried individual is to get a life insurance.

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Prepare for financial emergencies

Life is full of surprises, emergencies do happen, jobs are lost without notices, and even good investment opportunities emerge sometimes suddenly. There is, therefore, the need for a cash reserve to help weather the financial storms and emergencies when they come calling.

Cash reserves do not only provide for emergencies, they also help to ensure that investments are not liquidated prematurely or at inopportune times to cover unexpected expenses. There are no hard and fast rules on what the exact amount of the required cash reserve should be, but most financial experts and planners will advise that an amount that equals about six months of living expenses be set aside.

So, as a salaried person, your next investment should be to have a cash reserve. A cash reserve should not necessarily be in a savings account or under the mattress; it could be in an interest-bearing money market account, money market mutual funds with low to zero luck-up period or another form of very liquid investment that is readily convertible to cash without loss of value.

[Read Also: Understanding the risks in bond investing]

Know your risk appetite

As a salaried and fixed income individual, your risk appetite is most likely going to be low as well as your risk tolerance, although your extended family profile could change all that. You need to know or understand your risk tolerance before you engage in any capital market investment.

Your risk tolerance will and should drive the type of investments you go into. Your risk tolerance depends on your psychological makeup, your current insurance coverage, presence or absence of cash reserve, family situation, and your age among others.

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Talking about family situation, it is reasonable to think that a married individual whose children are still in school will be more risk averse than an unmarried person. On the other hand, older people have shorter investment time horizon within which to make up for any losses. the reason for this is because the older you get the less time you have to work to recoup on losses.

In that case the risk tolerance of an older man will be less than those for younger folks. Again, the more cash reserve and insurance coverage you have, the more your propensity to take risk. Now having known your risk tolerance based on the underlying factors, you can then define your investment objectives

[Read Also: Important tips on how to profit in a bearish market]

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Set your Investment objectives/goals

Having met those essentials above, you are now ready for a serious investment plan or program. A good investment plan starts with investment objectives. Investment objectives are the force that determines what you invest in. Investment objectives range from capital preservation, to capital appreciation and constant income generation.

Capital preservation as an investment objective implies that you, the investor, aim at minimising the risk of loss by maintaining the purchasing power of your investment. So, if you are risk averse or you will need money from your investment soon for children’s education or for building a house or you are nearing retirement, this should be your objective.

Investors whose aims are to see their investment portfolios increase in real terms over a period of time are better suited for capital appreciation as an objective. This is better for investors that are more risk tolerant and those with more potential to recoup on losses along the way.

If you are already retired or nearing retirement, and therefore depend on your retirement plan supplemented by investment income, you need an investment that generates income rather than capital gains. In that case, your investment objective should be current income generation. It is always good to have investment goals stated in terms of risk and returns.

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[Read Also: I-Invest generates over N2 billion transaction in less than 6 months]

Decide on asset allocation

Armed with the knowledge of your risk appetite and investment objective, you are now ready to decide on what to invest in, and how much to invest in any asset class. This takes you to asset allocation decisions. Asset allocation involves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset classes based on an investor’s financial requirements, investment objectives and risk tolerance.

A right mix of asset classes in a portfolio provides an investor with the highest probability of meeting his/her investment objectives. Asset allocation is the most important investment decision an investor can make in a portfolio because it demonstrates an investor’s understanding of his or her risk preferences and return expectations.

It is good to strive for a diversified portfolio. Unfortunately, the Nigerian market does not provide a lot of asset classes for optimal diversification, but diversification can be achieved across sectors or industries within the few asset classes in the Nigerian stock market.

Decide on how to invest

There are different ways to invest in the capital market. You can invest directly by making the stock selections by yourself, thanks to the online stock trading platforms that abound the world over. This implies that you have what it takes to conduct the required research and analysis of the companies whose shares or stocks you wish to buy.

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[Read Also: How I Would Invest My Mother’s Retirement Funds]

It also implies that you have what it takes to know when to sell or add to existing positions. Another method is to have someone “do the heavy lifting” for you. In this case, that someone, often times called fund manager or portfolio manager, does the research and analysis and selects shares that suit your investment preferences, investment objectives, risk tolerance and appetite as well as your investment time horizon.

This route is most suitable for investors that lack the knowledge and time for the required research and analysis. If you decide to go this route, mutual funds are the best bet for you.

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Business News

Atiku kicks as Buhari spends $3.7 billion in foreign debt service since 2015

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Budget: FG completes just 31.7% of constituency projects, Nigerians react to President Buhari's signing of Finance Bill 

The Buhari led government has spent about $3.7 billion in foreign debt service since 2015, one of the highest from any democratically elected government. The highest single-year foreign debt service was in 2006 at $1.79 billion.

About 68% of Nigeria’s foreign-denominated debt servicing is in commercial Eurobonds issues over the last two years. The loans range between 5.1% and 9.2% per annum. Nigeria’s external debt stock stood at $27 billion in June 2019.

Rising debt service: The Buhari administration has so far spent about $1.1 billion in foreign debt service this year. In 2018, the government spent about $1.4 billion in debt service, more than 3 times the $444 million it spent servicing foreign debts in 2017. The rising cost of debt service is a direct attribute of the government’s reliance on foreign loans as a means of funding government expenditure.

Debt service since 2003. Source: CBN. Nairametrics Research (C)

Foreign Loans: Nigeria’s fallen revenue following the crash in oil price has allowed President Buhari to rely mainly on foreign loans to fund government expenditure. As of June 2015, Nigeria’s foreign loans were about $10.5 billion mostly made up of multilateral and bilateral loans.

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However, by June 2019, total foreign-denominated loans were $27 billion with $10.8 billion made up of Eurobonds. Commercial loans which include Eurobonds and Diaspora bonds make now make up about 42% of total foreign borrowings.

[READ ALSO: Babatunde Fowler attributes FIRS success to technological innovation (Opens in a new browser tab)]

Critics of the government have complained about the government penchant for debts believing that it could put the future of younger Nigerians in jeopardy. Supporters of the government, however, believe the borrowing was necessary to invest in critical sectors of the economy particularly infrastructure.

Recently, Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir expressed worry about Nigeria’s rising debt.

“….the rising debt profile of Nigeria continues to be a cause for concern, especially the capacity of government to effectively service it and, at the same time, meet the bursting needs and aspiration of the citizenry going forward.” 

“Already, our budget projections for 2020 anticipates a debt service sum of 2.45trillion, an amount higher than the 2.14 trillion earmarked for capital expenditure. 

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“And even though our debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, which currently stands at 28 percent, is still below the average in Africa, our revenue-to-GDP ratio remains low.”

The Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed however, believes the current debt profile is sustainable, comparing it to our GDP.

“Currently, Nigeria’s debt is at N25 trillion; that is about $83 billion. And at $83 billion, we are just at 18.99%…so 19% debt to GDP. I hear people say Nigeria has a debt problem. We don’t have a debt problem. What we have is a revenue challenge and the whole of this government is currently working on how to enhance our revenues, to ensure that we meet our obligation to service government as well as to service debt.”

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[READ ALSO: Babatunde Fowler attributes FIRS success to technological innovation (Opens in a new browser tab)]

Former Vice President and defeated PDP Presidential aspirant, Atiku Abubakar during the week piled criticism on the government’s borrowing.

“I have said it time and again. The business of government is too serious to be left in the hands of politicians. We must all ask questions because if they throw away the future, it is not going to be their future they are throwing away, it will be all our futures.

“The fact that Nigeria currently budgets more money for debt servicing (N2.7 trillion), than we do on capital expenditure (N2.4 trillion) is already an indicator that we have borrowed more money than we can afford to borrow. And the thing is that debt servicing is not debt repayment. Debt servicing just means that we are paying the barest minimum allowable by our creditors.

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What this means: Nigeria’s rising foreign debt profile should be a worry to investors and businesses and must be watched closely. The country’s ability to repay these loans will continue to be harder as it increases especially now that it is costing about 9%. The immediate risk for investors is the exchange rate which could be the first to suffer should the government struggle to repay its loans.

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