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Here Is Why Renaissance Capital Switched GSK & 7up to a BUY

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buy and sell stocks - Invest in shares

We assess the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) consumer in Nigeria and analyse which companies both private and public play this segment of the population. We provide a cross comparison of consumer names and the sector across frontier markets. We also provide results of our consumer survey and launch a CPI tracker for Nigeria. Based on our analysis, we conclude that GlaxoSmithKline Nigeria (GSK) is the only BUY (maintained), but we lower our TP to NGN42.0 (NGN52.8), implying 22% upside potential. However, given the macro uncertainty in Nigeria, we think investors should focus on Pakistan and Egypt instead.

Focus on Pakistan and Egypt

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With the deterioration in the macro situation in Nigeria, the dwindling disposable income of the consumer, and the anticipated devaluation of the naira, we believe the operating environment will remain tough. Here we analyse companies we believe will be able to weather the storm in Nigeria, however, we prefer Juhayna (BUY; TP EGP10.6) in Egypt and Packages (BUY; TP PKR863) in Pakistan as the macro is structurally stronger and consumer companies continue to exhibit growth.

Proprietary survey of the Nigerian consumer

The BOP accounts for ~87% of Nigeria’s population, according to the UN. Globally, within the BOP, consumers tend to spend approximately ~60% of their disposable income on food and beverages. In Nigeria, food accounts for 52% of BOP household spending. We believe GSK Nigeria and Flour Mills of Nigeria (FMN) play this segment best. We conducted a survey of consumers in Lagos and met with numerous listed and non-listed companies (such as Fan Milk, Chi Limited and La Casera) to get a sense of what is happening on the ground and how best to play the BOP. We launch a CPI tracker in conjunction with Yvonne Mhango, our SSA economist. We also compare Nigeria’s FMCG sector vs its frontier market peers and make the case that MNC subsidiaries in Nigeria, apart from Nestlé Nigeria, have underperformed their globally listed peers, yet trade at unjustified premium valuations.

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GSK & FMN stand out in Nigeria

Within our coverage universe we analyse historical earnings performance, and assess debt profiles, distributors, SKUs, dividend policies and raw material sourcing. We also look at parent structures and their track record with minorities in subsidiary-listed businesses and their ability to play the BOP. Despite Nestlé Nigeria ranking high, we believe valuations are expensive and growth limited. As a result we downgrade to SELL (from Hold) with a new TP of NGN766.4 (previously NGN950.0). We believe GSK is the best play on the BOP at the cheapest valuation vs its peers, followed by FMN. We rate GSK BUY with a new TP of NGN42.0 (previously NGN52.8), and upgrade FMN to HOLD (from Sell) with a new TP of NGN28.7 (previously NGN29.83). Across our coverage universe we believe Packages, Juhayna and 7UP Bottling Co. are the top BUYs.

Patricia

Nairametrics is Nigeria's top business news and financial analysis website. We focus on providing resources that help small businesses and retail investors make better investing decisions. Nairametrics is updated daily by a team of professionals. Post updated as "Nairametrics" are published by our Editorial Board.

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Business

Shoprite to leave Nigeria After 15 years

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Shoprite’s sales drop by 8.1% in Nigeria in H2 2019 over Xenophobic attacks

South African retailer, Shoprite International Limited says it will consider the potential sale of the majority stake of its Nigerian holdings, Retail Supermarkets Nigeria Limited.

This was disclosed in the company’s operational and voluntary trading update that was published this morning.

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more details later

Patricia
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Investment Tips

5 things you can do to attract equity funding for your business

Equity financing is a reliable funding option.

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5 things you can do to attract equity funding for your business

One challenge that is peculiar to all Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) is that of funding. Of course, the level of challenge depends on the size of the business and the plan that needs to be executed. It is even more so for start-ups looking for funds to bring their business ideas to life.

To solve this challenge, entrepreneurs and business managers explore several sources including applying for loans, grants, partnerships and so on.

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Equity financing is a reliable funding option. It basically involves giving out some equity or ownership in your business, in exchange for capital. This could come from friends, family members or potential business partners, and it is often aimed at raising money to pay short-term bills or financing long-term expansion plans.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Abuja Sheraton suffers 88% drop in revenues

Recently on the weekly Nairametrics “Business Half Hour” with Ugodre, Tokunboh Ishmael, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Alitheia Capital, discussed the topic “Private Equity Funding for SMEs” in detail.

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Among other things, Tokunbo gave some pointers as to how business owners could attract the right equity financing for their business options. The points summarized below tell you what potential equity finance partners (individuals or partners) look out for.

READ: WARNING: Why you should avoid investing long term in Nigeria’s stock market

Management (Who is the manager?)

Any company or individual who puts up money for your business, in exchange for equity, is definitely concerned about the management.

They want to know if the manager of the business has had any experience managing a similar business before. This is considered a form of apprenticeship and it is expected that whatever knowledge gained would help make you more efficient in dealing with issues that may arise in the course of the business.

READ MORE: UK’s CDC Group invests $39.2 million in West Africa

Does he have the requisite educational background? It does not always take someone with a Masters in Business Administration (MBA) to grow a successful business. But that MBA degree could suffice, especially when you do not possess any other relevant experience.

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Do you have the relevant track record? What happens if you have overseen a business which eventually went bankrupt or crashed due to management problems? Does this make the Equity fund partner more or less willing to put money into the business? Obviously not!

Some people can wake up and be successful entrepreneurs at first try, but this is not usually the case. Most will go through years of rising and falling, or working under others to gain the relevant experience of running a business.

Management is a critical point that any company or individual will look at, when you approach them with the offer of equity in exchange for funding.

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READ ALSO: Between loan and equity funding, which is best for startups?

Opportunities (What opportunities does it bring to the investor?)

Every business idea is an attempt to solve a problem. But what separates successful business ideas from others is that there is something unique about your solution.

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First identify and understand the problem you want to solve, and from there work out a sustainable business solution. Every equity investor will be concerned with the uniqueness of your solution. Is it peculiar to you? Or is it something that everyone else is doing?

If your business idea has an easy entry point, meaning your idea is not unique to you, it would be difficult to get equity funding. Why? The potential investors already understand that you would soon have to deal with serious competitors who might end up doing what you do even better.

READ MORE: Digital economy: How to move your organisation from ‘surviving’ to ‘thriving’

If your business idea shows a potential to make investors part of something big and unique, then you are more likely to get the funds you need. No company or individual wants to invest money in a business idea that will soon be drowned by competition.

You may get some sympathy funds from family members and maybe friends, but not any significant sum that will take you far.

ROI (How soon can investors get returns?)

Returns on Investment (ROI) are a key consideration for any investor (except perhaps charity organisations).

An investor’s concern with returns can best be likened to a retiree’s concern with pension. It is a most sacred topic and in fact, one of the first things they want to find out before putting in their money.

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Based on your business idea and model, do I have to wait a year, two or three years before getting any returns?

A quarter may be too short to expect returns, but maybe three years would also be too long to wait. It all depends on your business venture, and of course, the investor’s plans. If he has plans to start channeling the returns into other ventures within six months, then a two-year wait would not be for that investor.

READ ALSO: Google’s advertising revenue plunges

Returns are not always financial, they could also be social. If the equity company is one that is more disposed towards a certain sector of the economy, say tech or agriculture, then the success of the company brings not only financial returns, but social returns to the company.

This is something you should also look out for before approaching any company for equity funding. You do not want to approach a company with an agricultural business idea, when the company is more disposed towards technology or education.

Ability to scale (Is the business expandable and replicable?)

A private equity partner is also concerned about how soon your business can expand, and how replicable your strategy is. Can it scale up?

Do you have a business idea that is so built around you, that it cannot function without you? Do you have a business idea or structure that will likely crumble if you die? Do you have a process that can be replicated?

The investor wants to know for sure that there are growth and expansion potentials. There is a need to be sure that the business idea you have is not one that can only remain confined to your bedroom. They want to know that you can move from offering your services in one state to serving several states and even the global community.

READ: Why you should consider selling Bitcoin now

Why is this even necessary?

Because, it affects how attractive the business will become to the next level of investors who will take over from the private equity investors. This leads us to the next point they consider.

Exit potential (How can they sell out their equity and exit the company?)

Private equity investors are often not interested in taking over your business from you. Their aim is to bring in money for you when you are starting up, provide you advice and partnership, and sell out when it grows. They are not interested in having investments in different sectors of the economy. This explains why they are often concerned about the exit potential in your business.

Is there the likelihood that we can exit sometime in the future? Or do we just invest and get stuck? How attractive can this business become for the next level of investors – the institutional investors who will come in to own the business with you and stick to the end?

One of the most frightening possibilities to the private equity investor is that when he is ready to exit, there is no one to buy in and take over. So you need to answer the question – how attractive is your business idea to investors, and what is the exit potential?

If all five questions are dealt with satisfactorily, then you are well on your way to getting a good private equity partners to provide you financing for your business.

Patricia
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Cryptocurrency

Why you should consider selling Bitcoin now

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A Mysterious Bitcoin Whale Causes Brief Panic Sell Offs at Bitcoin’s Market, The odds against Bitcoin, Goldman Sachs says Bitcoin is not an investment asset, BTC whales control the BTC market, at the highest levels , , There are now 13,173 BTC millionaires around the world

Recent trends and macros surrounding the world’s most valuable crypto asset have shown that investors need to start selling some of their bitcoins for profit.

The facts: BTC rose above the $12,000 price level, roughly about 23 hours ago. But there were warning signs indicating that daily active addresses on the network were not keeping up with the surging price, and that a correction would be swift. A bearish divergence also formed.

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Yesterday, the price continued to climb towards $12,000 in spite of DAA dropping from 1.06  million on Friday to 959, 000 on Saturday (-9.5% drop). As a result of this bearish divergence, Bitcoin fell back to $11,000 price levels in a hurry (-8.3% price drop).

READ MORE: Earning BTCs without Having To Pay Money

Warning signs: While crypto exchanges are still sorting out liquidations in the BTC market, one should probably ask what the BTC whales are doing. That sell-off was perpetuated and possibly triggered by an over-leveraged market.

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“In the last 24 hours, BitMEX lost the most open interest in Bitcoin futures – about $105M. Followed by OKEx, Huobi, and Binance (all losing more than $50M),” Larry Cermax said.

READ ALSO: CBN Governor guarantees investors over forex repatriation

However, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Chief Technical Officer at Glassnode, with a detailed diagram, explained why despite the recent plunge, the world’s flagship cryptocurrency still had the bullish momentum in play.

READ ALSO: There are now 18,000 Bitcoin millionaires

“Investors are not moving $BTC at a loss. Adjusted SOPR (hourly chart) is still above 1 despite the sharp price drop, showing no sign of a short-term trend reversal (yet). Closely watching this level,” Schultze-Kraft said.

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Why is BTC volatile? The price of Bitcoin is so volatile because of its high use for financial gain and speculating advantages used by global investors and crypto traders. As such, individuals and hedge funds sell and buy Bitcoins as they would do for any other financial asset (stocks, bonds) with regulatory limitations.

READ ALSO: Mysterious Bitcoin whale moves 15,022 BTCs worth $162 million

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What you should do: Nairametrics advises cautious buying in this fast-growing financial asset, as high market liquidity could expose you to significant losses. It’s highly recommended you seek advice from a certified financial advisor when buying these crypto assets.

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