The Dow Jones industrial average climbed over 17000 recently before dropping to just above 16,000. The S&P 500 a brother measure of stock performance in the US is expected to hit the much anticipated 2000 points anytime soon. Americans investors are wondering of this is another bubble in the making or if the market is just a reflection of an economic rebound. Americans question their successes and failures and will always resort to historical trends to predict the future. This is how they do it… just patiently read this Reuters article.
The S&P 500 is closing in on the vaunted 2,000 mark, but a growing number of strategists, looking at common measures of valuation, are wondering if it is justified.
By some measures, like the oft cited forward price-to-earnings ratio, stocks are modestly expensive. But others – such as a long-term adjusted P/E ratio – suggest stocks have run far ahead of themselves. That doesn’t necessarily mean stocks are headed for a correction soon. Wall Street defines a correction as a drop of 10 percent from a recent peak.
“There are periods, for instance in 1999, when you would say markets are expensive, and they got more expensive before they blew up. So anybody who sat there saying, ‘I am going to short the market because it is really expensive’ lost their shirts,” said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup in New York.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX set records consistently in recent weeks, but the moves were slow as more investors worried about stocks being overvalued.
In research notes on Tuesday, strategists at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch both suggested that stocks are no longer inexpensive. Morgan Stanley strategist Adam Parker wrote that “we do think the risk-reward is more balanced than bullish for the S&P 500 in the second half of 2014.”
A LOOK AT HISTORIC RATIOS
According to Thomson Reuters Datastream, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 stands at 15.68, slightly above its historical average of 14.89, but not necessarily screaming “expensive.”
A slightly different measure, forward operating earnings, suggests stocks are pricier than their historic norm. As of June 30, operating S&P 500 earnings for 2014 are expected at $119.60, for a forward operating P/E ratio of 16.42. The 2015 estimate of $137.52 puts a 14.25 forward operating P/E ratio on the S&P 500.
Operating earnings measure a company’s profit after removing costs normally associated with running the business.
Both of those measurements would indicate equities are not yet overly expensive, with the caveat that they are based on estimates, which are subject to change.
However, according to Datastream, the last time the forward P/E ratio approached this level was in May 2007, five months ahead of the market’s peak before the financial crisis of 2008. The forward P/E ratio was also more expensive in November 1996, but the bull market raced along until the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000.
“If you look at it the way many institutional investors look at it, which is on forward (operating) earnings, institutional investors don’t get super-nervous until you get to 18,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York.
ON THE CAPE
One measurement that has garnered a fair amount of attention is the Shiller P/E ratio, or cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio. Created by Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, it derives a price-to-earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings for the previous 10 years, in an attempt to smooth out anomalies in earnings figures.
The CAPE ratio stands at 26.25, far above its 16.54 historic average. It’s just shy of the CAPE ratio of 27.31 seen at the October 2007 peak – about 11 months before the market crashed. But such lofty levels for this measure in 1996 did not stop the rally from running along for a few more years.
More recently, the 2008 crash resulted in the S&P 500’s only negative earnings figure in its history, which skews the P/E ratio in that period of time, and makes some strategists skeptical of the current CAPE figure.
“I don’t buy the Shiller Adjusted P/E,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James Financial in St. Petersburg, Florida. “It had a pretty good track record but on a 10-year look back, you have to assume what we saw in 2008 and 2009 is typical.”
USING YIELD AS A YARDSTICK
Meanwhile, the big bond rally over the last several years makes stocks look attractive in some ways, when comparing the earnings yield to the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. The earnings yield takes the earnings per share of the latest 12-month period and divides it by the S&P 500’s current level.
That yield for the S&P 500 currently stands at about 6.4 percent. That’s 3.8 percentage points higher than the 10-year Treasury note’s yield, currently about 2.60 percent. The median gap between stock and bond yields over the past 30 years is about 1.4 percentage points. That makes sense, as stocks are the riskier asset, but this difference suggests stocks remain a relative bargain to Treasuries.
As the Fed winds down its monetary stimulus and if the economy continues to improve, then long-term bond rates could rise. That could narrow that spread and prompt some reallocation.
There is a lot we can learn from here as Nigerians right?
COVID-19 Update in Nigeria
On the 14th of August 2020, 329 new confirmed cases and 7 deaths were recorded in Nigeria.
The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increase as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 48,445 confirmed cases.
On the 14th of August 2020, 329 new confirmed cases and 7 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 2,976 samples across the country.
To date, 48,445 cases have been confirmed, 35,998 cases have been discharged and 973 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 344,397 tests have been carried out as of August 14th, 2020 compared to 341,421 tests a day earlier.
COVID-19 Case Updates- 14th August 2020,
- Total Number of Cases – 48,445
- Total Number Discharged – 34,998
- Total Deaths – 973
- Total Tests Carried out – 344,397
According to the NCDC, the 329 new cases were reported from 21 states- Lagos (113), Kaduna (49), FCT (33), Plateau (24), Kano (16), Edo (15), Ogun (14), Delta (13), Osun (10), Oyo (8), Ekiti (6) Bayelsa (6), Akwa Ibom (5), Borno (4), Enugu (4), Ebonyi (3), Rivers (2), Bauchi (1), Nasarawa (1), Gombe (1) and Niger (1).
Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 16,369, followed by Abuja (4,665), Oyo (2,943), Edo (2,414), Rivers (1,993), Kaduna (1,755),Plateau (1,689), Kano (1,677), Delta (1,639), Ogun (1,535), Ondo (1,373), Enugu (980), Ebonyi (911), Kwara (888), Katsina (746), Osun (729), Borno (702), Abia (677), Gombe (648), and Bauchi (581).
Imo State has recorded 494 cases, Benue (430), Nasarawa (373), Bayelsa (352), Jigawa (322), Akwa Ibom (246), Niger (229), Ekiti (200), Adamawa (185), Anambra (156), Sokoto (154), Kebbi (90), Taraba (78), Zamfara (77), Cross River (73), Yobe (67), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.
Lock Down and Curfew
In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.
The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.
On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.
On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.
|Date||Confirmed case||New cases||Total deaths||New deaths||Total recovery||Active cases||Critical cases|
|August 14, 2020||48445||329||973||7||35998||11474||7|
|August 13, 2020||48116||373||966||10||34309||12841||7|
|August 12, 2020||47743||453||956||0||33943||12844||7|
|August 11, 2020||47290||423||956||6||33609||12725||7|
|August 10, 2020||46867||290||950||5||33346||12571||7|
|August 9, 2020||46577||437||945||3||33186||12446||7|
|August 8, 2020||46140||453||942||6||33044||12154||7|
|August 7, 2020||45687||443||936||6||32637||12114||7|
|August 6, 2020||45244||354||930||3||32430||11884||7|
|August 5, 2020||44890||457||927||17||32165||11798||7|
|August 4, 2020||44433||304||910||14||31851||11672||7|
|August 3, 2020||44129||288||896||8||20663||22570||7|
|August 2, 2020||43841||304||888||5||20308||22645||7|
|August 1, 2020||43537||386||883||4||20287||22567||7|
|July 31, 2020||43151||462||879||1||19565||22707||7|
|July 30, 2020||42689||481||878||5||19270||22541||7|
|July 29, 2020||42208||404||873||5||19004||22331||7|
|July 28, 2020||41804||624||868||8||18764||22172||7|
|July 27, 2020||41180||648||860||2||18203||22117||7|
|July 26, 2020||40532||555||858||2||17374||22300||7|
|July 25, 2020||39977||438||856||11||16948||22173||7|
|July 24, 2020||39539||591||845||12||16559||22135||7|
|July 23, 2020||38948||604||833||20||16061||22054||7|
|July 22, 2020||38344||543||813||8||15815||21716||7|
|July 21, 2020||37801||576||805||4||15677||21319||7|
|July 20, 2020||37225||562||801||12||15333||21091||7|
|July 19, 2020||36663||556||789||11||15105||20769||7|
|July 18, 2020||36107||653||778||6||14938||20391||7|
|July 17, 2020||35454||600||772||3||14633||20049||7|
|July 16, 2020||34854||595||769||9||14292||19793||7|
|July 15, 2020||34259||643||760||6||13999||19500||7|
|July 14, 2020||33616||463||754||10||13792||19070||7|
|July 13, 2020||33153||595||744||4||13671||18738||7|
|July 12, 2020||32558||571||740||16||13447||18371||7|
|July 11, 2020||31987||664||724||15||13103||18160||7|
|July 10, 2020||31323||575||709||20||12795||17819||7|
|July 9, 2020||30748||499||689||5||12546||17513||7|
|July 8, 2020||30249||460||684||15||12373||17192||7|
|July 7, 2020||29789||503||669||15||12108||17012||7|
|July 6, 2020||29286||575||654||9||11828||16804||7|
|July 5, 2020||28711||544||645||11||11665||16401||7|
|July 4, 2020||28167||603||634||6||11462||16071||7|
|July 3, 2020||27564||454||628||12||11069||15867||7|
|July 2, 2020||27110||626||616||13||10801||15693||7|
|July 1, 2020||26484||790||603||13||10152||15729||7|
|June 30, 2020||25694||561||590||17||9746||15358||7|
|June 29, 2020||25133||566||573||8||9402||15158||7|
|June 28, 2020||24867||490||565||7||9007||14995||7|
|June 27, 2020||24077||779||558||4||8625||14894||7|
|June 26, 2020||23298||684||554||5||8253||14491||7|
|June 25, 2020||22614||594||549||7||7822||14243||7|
|June 24, 2020||22020||649||542||9||7613||13865||7|
|June 23, 2020||21371||452||533||8||7338||13500||7|
|June 22, 2020||20919||675||525||7||7109||13285||7|
|June 21, 2020||20242||436||518||12||6879||12847||7|
|June 20, 2020||19808||661||506||19||6718||12584||7|
|June 19, 2020||19147||667||487||12||6581||12079||7|
|June 18, 2020||18480||745||475||6||6307||11698||7|
|June 17, 2020||17735||587||469||14||5967||11299||7|
|June 16, 2020||17148||490||455||31||5623||11070||7|
|June 15, 2020||16658||573||424||4||5349||10885||7|
|June 14, 2020||16085||403||420||13||5220||10445||7|
|June 13, 2020||15682||501||407||8||5101||10174||7|
|June 12, 2020||15181||627||399||12||4891||9891||7|
|June 11, 2020||14554||681||387||5||4494||9673||7|
|June 10, 2020||13873||409||382||17||4351||9140||7|
|June 9, 2020||13464||663||365||4||4206||8893||7|
|June 8, 2020||12801||315||361||7||4040||8400||7|
|June 7, 2020||12486||260||354||12||3959||8173||7|
|June 6, 2020||12233||389||342||9||3826||8065||7|
|June 5, 2020||11844||328||333||10||3696||7815||7|
|June 4, 2020||11516||350||323||8||3535||7646||7|
|June 3, 2020||11166||348||315||1||3329||7522||7|
|June 2, 2020||10819||241||314||15||3239||7266||7|
|June 1, 2020||10578||416||299||12||3122||7157||9|
|May 31, 2020||10162||307||287||14||3007||6868||7|
|May 30, 2020||9855||553||273||12||2856||6726||7|
|May 29, 2020||9302||387||261||2||2697||6344||7|
|May 28, 2020||8915||182||259||5||2592||6064||7|
|May 27, 2020||8733||389||254||5||2501||5978||7|
|May 26, 2020||8344||276||249||16||2385||5710||7|
|May 25, 2020||8068||229||233||7||2311||5524||7|
|May 24, 2020||7839||313||226||5||2263||5360||7|
|May 23, 2020||7526||265||221||0||2174||5131||7|
|May 22, 2020||7261||245||221||10||2007||5033||7|
|May 21, 2020||7016||339||211||11||1907||4898||7|
|May 20, 2020||6677||284||200||8||1840||4637||7|
|May 19, 2020||6401||226||192||1||1734||4475||7|
|May 18, 2020||6175||216||191||9||1644||4340||7|
|May 17, 2020||5959||388||182||6||1594||4183||7|
|May 16, 2020||5621||176||176||5||1472||3973||7|
|May 15, 2020||5445||288||171||3||1320||3954||4|
|May 14, 2020||5162||193||168||3||1180||3815||4|
|May 13, 2020||4971||184||164||6||1070||3737||4|
|May 12, 2020||4787||146||158||6||959||3670||4|
|May 11, 2020||4641||242||152||10||902||3589||4|
|May 10, 2020||4399||248||142||17||778||3479||4|
|May 9, 2020||4151||239||127||11||745||3278||4|
|May 8, 2020||3912||386||118||10||679||3115||4|
|May 7, 2020||3526||381||108||4||601||2818||4|
|May 6, 2020||3145||195||104||5||534||2507||1|
|May 5, 2020||2950||148||99||5||481||2370||4|
|May 4, 2020||2802||245||94||6||417||2291||2|
|May 3, 2020||2558||170||88||2||400||2070||2|
|May 2, 2020||2388||220||86||17||351||1952||2|
|May 1, 2020||2170||238||69||10||351||1751||2|
|April 30, 2020||1932||204||59||7||317||1556||2|
|April 29, 2020||1728||196||52||7||307||1369||2|
|April 28, 2020||1532||195||45||4||255||1232||2|
|April 27, 2020||1337||64||41||0||255||994||2|
|April 26, 2020||1273||91||41||5||239||994||2|
|April 25, 2020||1182||87||36||3||222||925||2|
|April 24, 2020||1095||114||33||1||208||855||2|
|April 23, 2020||981||108||32||3||197||753||2|
|April 22, 2020||873||91||29||3||197||648||2|
|April 21, 2020||782||117||26||3||197||560||2|
|April 20, 2020||665||38||23||1||188||466||2|
|April 19, 2020||627||86||22||2||170||436||2|
|April 18, 2020||541||48||20||2||166||356||2|
|April 17, 2020||493||51||18||4||159||317||2|
|April 16, 2020||442||35||13||1||152||277||2|
|April 15, 2020||407||34||12||1||128||267||2|
|April 14, 2020||373||30||11||1||99||263||2|
|April 13, 2020||343||20||10||0||91||242||2|
|April 12, 2020||323||5||10||0||85||228||2|
|April 11, 2020||318||13||10||3||70||238||2|
|April 10, 2020||305||17||7||0||58||240||2|
|April 9, 2020||288||14||7||1||51||230||2|
|April 8, 2020||274||22||6||0||44||226||2|
|April 7, 2020||254||16||6||1||44||204||2|
|April 6, 2020||238||6||5||0||35||198||2|
|April 5, 2020||232||18||5||1||33||194||2|
|April 4, 2020||214||5||4||0||25||185||0|
|April 3, 2020||209||25||4||2||25||180||0|
|April 2, 2020||184||10||2||0||20||162||0|
|April 1, 2020||174||35||2||0||9||163||0|
|March 31, 2020||139||8||2||0||9||128||0|
|March 30, 2020||131||20||2||1||8||121||0|
|March 29, 2020||111||22||1||0||3||107||0|
|March 28, 2020||89||19||1||0||3||85||0|
|March 27, 2020||70||5||1||0||3||66||0|
|March 26, 2020||65||14||1||0||2||62||0|
|March 25, 2020||51||7||1||0||2||48||0|
|March 24, 2020||44||4||1||0||2||41||0|
|March 23, 2020||40||10||1||1||2||37||0|
|March 22, 2020||30||8||0||0||2||28||0|
|March 21, 2020||22||10||0||0||1||21||0|
|March 20, 2020||12||4||0||0||1||11||0|
|March 19, 2020||8||0||0||0||1||7||0|
|March 18, 2020||8||5||0||0||1||7||0|
|March 17, 2020||3||1||0||0||0||3||0|
|March 16, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 15, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 14, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 13, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 12, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 11, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 10, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 9, 2020||2||1||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 8, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 7, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 6, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 5, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 4, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 3, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 2, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 1, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|February 29, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|February 28, 2020||1||1||0||0||0||1||0|
MTN, CADBURY, UNILEVER record losses, ASI down by 0.15%
The market capitalization presently stands at N13.146 trillion.
Nigerian stock market closed today on a bearish note. The All Share Index dropped by -0.15% to close at 25,199.84 basis points as against +0.38% appreciation recorded previously.
Its Year-to-Date (YTD) returns currently stands at -6.12%. The market capitalization presently stands at N13.146 trillion.
Nigerian bourse trading turnover closed positive as volume moved up by +86.96% as against +25.97% uptick recorded in the previous session. WAPIC, UNILEVER, and ZENITHBANK were the most active to boost market turnover.
WAPIC leads the list of active stocks that recorded an impressive volume spike at the end of today’s session.
Market breadth closed negative as CILEASING led 11 Gainers as against 23 Losers topped by NNFM at the end of today’s session – an unimproved performance when compared with the previous outlook.
- CILEASING up 10.00% to close at N4.4
- FIDSON up 4.82% to close at N3.7
- REDSTAREX up 2.74% to close at N3.75
- AFRIPRUD N4.30.1 2.33% to close at N4.4
- BUACEMENT up 0.78% to close at N38.9
- NNFM down 10.00% to close at N3.87
- CAP down 5.03% to close at N17
- CADBURY down 3.87% to close at N7.45
- UNILEVER down 3.85% to close at N12.5
- MTNN down 0.42% to close at N119
Nigerian bourse closed its last trading session for the week on a bearish, despite improved market liquidity printed at today’s trading session. Narametrics envisages you seek the advice of a certified financial advisor, when buying stocks.
Sanwo-Olu speaks on need to resolve community’s agitations for tank farms relocation
Sanwo-Olu called stakeholders to come together in order to provide a lasting solution to the issue.
The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has listed conditions that must be met, in order to bring a lasting solution to the dispute between petroleum tank farm owners at Ijegun-Egba area of Amuwo Odofin and the residents of the host community.
One of these conditions is that tank farm owners and petroleum tanker drivers must subscribe to operational regulations that limit the loading of tankers beyond their weight capacities. Also, all Federal Government’s regulatory agencies operating in the area must stop working at cross purposes with the state’s agencies, in the bid to address the environmental degradation in the area.
The governor also stressed that both the federal and state authorities should collaborate on the regeneration efforts of road and infrastructure in the area.
This disclosure was made by the Lagos State Governor on Thursday, August 13, 2020, in Marina, while receiving members of the House of Representatives Ad-Hoc Committee on the Relocation of Tank Farms. The Committee, which was constituted by the Speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila, was also intended to investigate and make recommendations on the issue.
The Hon Sergius Ogun led Ad-Hoc Committee had initially gone on a two-day inspection to Ijegun before sharing the findings with the Governor.
During the meeting, the governor pointed out that the regeneration of Ijegun-Egba was as important to the community as smooth transportation of petroleum products was important to the tank farms’ owners. He warned that the country could not afford to allow the host community’s agitation to hinder the operations of the tank farms, which, he said, supply 45% of petroleum products consumed in the country. The governor said:
“The Ijegun-Egba tank farms are strategic national assets created by the private sector to serve the whole country. Between 40 to 45% of the entire petroleum products that go across the country pass through that corridor. Even if it is to cater for our own need, we must take care of those assets, because they are like a strategic reserve for us as a nation.
“The rudiment of the problem in the area is a logistic issue, which is to ensure the movement of oil tankers in and out of the area without affecting the wellbeing of the community members. We have had to contend with environmental issues and the extent of the bad road network on the corridor is glaring. We have seen how small-capacity tankers are carrying up to 70,000 litres of petroleum products when they should be taking only 30,000 litres. This has exerted great pressure on the roads and the officers that are supposed to monitor them look away.
“These are part of the issues we need to resolve with the stakeholders. If we can let these people run their businesses within the confines of regulations, part of the solutions would have been achieved in the process. Also, there is a need for total regeneration of the roads in the area. We want the environment to be conducive for business, but we must do that in line with the safety of lives and property. We have talked with tank farms’ owners and we all need to come together. It is important for the Federal Government’s agencies to have an agreement and we are ready to play our own part.”
The committee was set up following the agitations and demands by residents of Ijegun Egba Satellite Town for the immediate relocation of the tank farms in the residential area. This, according to the residents, would help to prevent further environmental degradation and loss of lives and property in the area.
The host community accused tank farm owners of disrupting the drainage system, damaging roads within the community, and even converting roads to parking lots for their tankers.
The Governor stressed that genuine solution would be achieved if the entire network of infrastructure in the host community was cleaned up and regenerated. He, however, revealed that the new regeneration design that the state came up with could not take off because the federal authorities had not agreed with the plan.
Furthermore, Sanwo-Olu noted that it is high time for all the stakeholders to come together in order to provide a lasting solution to the issue.
“After your thorough assessment of the situation, I hope you would be able to call all relevant stakeholders and agencies of Government together on the discussion table. We are committed to any effort that’ll bring a permanent solution. We know how much of investment we have in the area, but businesses have to be done under a safe and controlled environment. We want every stakeholder to play their roles,” he said.
Making his own remark, the Chairman of the Ad-Hoc Committee, Hon Ogun, admitted the inability of the Federal authorities to work collaboratively with the Lagos State Government was part of the reasons the community’s agitation festered. He, however, promised that the House would prevail on the federal agencies to close ranks with stakeholders and bring about lasting solutions.