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You Need To See How Americans Estimate Whether Their Stock Market Is Overvalued Or Not

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The Dow Jones industrial average climbed over 17000 recently before dropping to just above 16,000. The S&P 500 a brother measure of stock performance in the US is expected to hit the much anticipated 2000 points anytime soon. Americans investors are wondering of this is another bubble in the making or if the market is just a reflection of an economic rebound. Americans question their successes and failures and will always resort to historical trends to predict the future. This is how they do it… just patiently read this Reuters article.

 

The S&P 500 is closing in on the vaunted 2,000 mark, but a growing number of strategists, looking at common measures of valuation, are wondering if it is justified.

By some measures, like the oft cited forward price-to-earnings ratio, stocks are modestly expensive. But others – such as a long-term adjusted P/E ratio – suggest stocks have run far ahead of themselves. That doesn’t necessarily mean stocks are headed for a correction soon. Wall Street defines a correction as a drop of 10 percent from a recent peak.

“There are periods, for instance in 1999, when you would say markets are expensive, and they got more expensive before they blew up. So anybody who sat there saying, ‘I am going to short the market because it is really expensive’ lost their shirts,” said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup in New York.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX set records consistently in recent weeks, but the moves were slow as more investors worried about stocks being overvalued.

In research notes on Tuesday, strategists at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch both suggested that stocks are no longer inexpensive. Morgan Stanley strategist Adam Parker wrote that “we do think the risk-reward is more balanced than bullish for the S&P 500 in the second half of 2014.”

A LOOK AT HISTORIC RATIOS

According to Thomson Reuters Datastream, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 stands at 15.68, slightly above its historical average of 14.89, but not necessarily screaming “expensive.”

A slightly different measure, forward operating earnings, suggests stocks are pricier than their historic norm. As of June 30, operating S&P 500 earnings for 2014 are expected at $119.60, for a forward operating P/E ratio of 16.42. The 2015 estimate of $137.52 puts a 14.25 forward operating P/E ratio on the S&P 500.

Operating earnings measure a company’s profit after removing costs normally associated with running the business.

Both of those measurements would indicate equities are not yet overly expensive, with the caveat that they are based on estimates, which are subject to change.

However, according to Datastream, the last time the forward P/E ratio approached this level was in May 2007, five months ahead of the market’s peak before the financial crisis of 2008. The forward P/E ratio was also more expensive in November 1996, but the bull market raced along until the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000.

“If you look at it the way many institutional investors look at it, which is on forward (operating) earnings, institutional investors don’t get super-nervous until you get to 18,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York.

ON THE CAPE

One measurement that has garnered a fair amount of attention is the Shiller P/E ratio, or cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio. Created by Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, it derives a price-to-earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings for the previous 10 years, in an attempt to smooth out anomalies in earnings figures.

The CAPE ratio stands at 26.25, far above its 16.54 historic average. It’s just shy of the CAPE ratio of 27.31 seen at the October 2007 peak – about 11 months before the market crashed. But such lofty levels for this measure in 1996 did not stop the rally from running along for a few more years.

More recently, the 2008 crash resulted in the S&P 500’s only negative earnings figure in its history, which skews the P/E ratio in that period of time, and makes some strategists skeptical of the current CAPE figure.

“I don’t buy the Shiller Adjusted P/E,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James Financial in St. Petersburg, Florida. “It had a pretty good track record but on a 10-year look back, you have to assume what we saw in 2008 and 2009 is typical.”

USING YIELD AS A YARDSTICK

Meanwhile, the big bond rally over the last several years makes stocks look attractive in some ways, when comparing the earnings yield to the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. The earnings yield takes the earnings per share of the latest 12-month period and divides it by the S&P 500’s current level.

That yield for the S&P 500 currently stands at about 6.4 percent. That’s 3.8 percentage points higher than the 10-year Treasury note’s yield, currently about 2.60 percent. The median gap between stock and bond yields over the past 30 years is about 1.4 percentage points. That makes sense, as stocks are the riskier asset, but this difference suggests stocks remain a relative bargain to Treasuries.

As the Fed winds down its monetary stimulus and if the economy continues to improve, then long-term bond rates could rise. That could narrow that spread and prompt some reallocation.

 

Reuters

There is a lot we can learn from here as Nigerians right?

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Coronavirus

COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 14th of August 2020, 329 new confirmed cases and 7 deaths were recorded in Nigeria.

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The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increase as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 48,445 confirmed cases.

On the 14th of August 2020, 329 new confirmed cases and 7 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 2,976 samples across the country.

To date, 48,445 cases have been confirmed, 35,998 cases have been discharged and 973 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 344,397 tests have been carried out as of August 14th, 2020 compared to 341,421 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 14th August 2020,

  • Total Number of Cases – 48,445
  • Total Number Discharged – 34,998
  • Total Deaths – 973
  • Total Tests Carried out – 344,397

According to the NCDC, the 329 new cases were reported from 21 states- Lagos (113), Kaduna (49), FCT (33), Plateau (24), Kano (16), Edo (15), Ogun (14), Delta (13), Osun (10), Oyo (8), Ekiti (6) Bayelsa (6), Akwa Ibom (5), Borno (4), Enugu (4), Ebonyi (3), Rivers (2), Bauchi (1), Nasarawa (1), Gombe (1) and Niger (1).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 16,369, followed by Abuja (4,665), Oyo (2,943), Edo (2,414), Rivers (1,993), Kaduna (1,755),Plateau (1,689), Kano (1,677),  Delta (1,639), Ogun (1,535), Ondo (1,373), Enugu (980), Ebonyi (911), Kwara (888), Katsina (746), Osun (729), Borno (702), Abia (677), Gombe (648),  and Bauchi (581).

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Imo State has recorded 494 cases, Benue (430), Nasarawa (373), Bayelsa (352),  Jigawa (322), Akwa Ibom (246), Niger (229), Ekiti (200), Adamawa (185), Anambra (156), Sokoto (154),  Kebbi (90), Taraba (78),  Zamfara (77), Cross River (73), Yobe (67), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.

On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

DateConfirmed caseNew casesTotal deathsNew deathsTotal recoveryActive casesCritical cases
August 14, 202048445329973735998114747
August 13, 2020481163739661034309128417
August 12, 202047743453956033943128447
August 11, 202047290423956633609127257
August 10, 202046867290950533346125717
August 9, 202046577437945333186124467
August 8, 202046140453942633044121547
August 7, 202045687443936632637121147
August 6, 202045244354930332430118847
August 5, 2020448904579271732165117987
August 4, 2020444333049101431851116727
August 3, 202044129288896820663225707
August 2, 202043841304888520308226457
August 1, 202043537386883420287225677
July 31, 202043151462879119565227077
July 30, 202042689481878519270225417
July 29, 202042208404873519004223317
July 28, 202041804624868818764221727
July 27, 202041180648860218203221177
July 26, 202040532555858217374223007
July 25, 2020399774388561116948221737
July 24, 2020395395918451216559221357
July 23, 2020389486048332016061220547
July 22, 202038344543813815815217167
July 21, 202037801576805415677213197
July 20, 2020372255628011215333210917
July 19, 2020366635567891115105207697
July 18, 202036107653778614938203917
July 17, 202035454600772314633200497
July 16, 202034854595769914292197937
July 15, 202034259643760613999195007
July 14, 2020336164637541013792190707
July 13, 202033153595744413671187387
July 12, 2020325585717401613447183717
July 11, 2020319876647241513103181607
July 10, 2020313235757092012795178197
July 9, 202030748499689512546175137
July 8, 2020302494606841512373171927
July 7, 2020297895036691512108170127
July 6, 202029286575654911828168047
July 5, 2020287115446451111665164017
July 4, 202028167603634611462160717
July 3, 2020275644546281211069158677
July 2, 2020271106266161310801156937
July 1, 2020264847906031310152157297
June 30, 202025694561590179746153587
June 29, 20202513356657389402151587
June 28, 20202486749056579007149957
June 27, 20202407777955848625148947
June 26, 20202329868455458253144917
June 25, 20202261459454977822142437
June 24, 20202202064954297613138657
June 23, 20202137145253387338135007
June 22, 20202091967552577109132857
June 21, 202020242436518126879128477
June 20, 202019808661506196718125847
June 19, 202019147667487126581120797
June 18, 20201848074547566307116987
June 17, 202017735587469145967112997
June 16, 202017148490455315623110707
June 15, 20201665857342445349108857
June 14, 202016085403420135220104457
June 13, 20201568250140785101101747
June 12, 20201518162739912489198917
June 11, 2020145546813875449496737
June 10, 20201387340938217435191407
June 9, 2020134646633654420688937
June 8, 2020128013153617404084007
June 7, 20201248626035412395981737
June 6, 2020122333893429382680657
June 5, 20201184432833310369678157
June 4, 2020115163503238353576467
June 3, 2020111663483151332975227
June 2, 20201081924131415323972667
June 1, 20201057841629912312271579
May 31, 20201016230728714300768687
May 30, 2020985555327312285667267
May 29, 202093023872612269763447
May 28, 202089151822595259260647
May 27, 202087333892545250159787
May 26, 2020834427624916238557107
May 25, 202080682292337231155247
May 24, 202078393132265226353607
May 23, 202075262652210217451317
May 22, 2020726124522110200750337
May 21, 2020701633921111190748987
May 20, 202066772842008184046377
May 19, 202064012261921173444757
May 18, 202061752161919164443407
May 17, 202059593881826159441837
May 16, 202056211761765147239737
May 15, 202054452881713132039544
May 14, 202051621931683118038154
May 13, 202049711841646107037374
May 12, 20204787146158695936704
May 11, 202046412421521090235894
May 10, 202043992481421777834794
May 9, 202041512391271174532784
May 8, 202039123861181067931154
May 7, 20203526381108460128184
May 6, 20203145195104553425071
May 5, 2020295014899548123704
May 4, 2020280224594641722912
May 3, 2020255817088240020702
May 2, 20202388220861735119522
May 1, 20202170238691035117512
April 30, 2020193220459731715562
April 29, 2020172819652730713692
April 28, 2020153219545425512322
April 27, 20201337644102559942
April 26, 20201273914152399942
April 25, 20201182873632229252
April 24, 202010951143312088552
April 23, 20209811083231977532
April 22, 2020873912931976482
April 21, 20207821172631975602
April 20, 2020665382311884662
April 19, 2020627862221704362
April 18, 2020541482021663562
April 17, 2020493511841593172
April 16, 2020442351311522772
April 15, 2020407341211282672
April 14, 202037330111992632
April 13, 202034320100912422
April 12, 20203235100852282
April 11, 202031813103702382
April 10, 20203051770582402
April 9, 20202881471512302
April 8, 20202742260442262
April 7, 20202541661442042
April 6, 2020238650351982
April 5, 20202321851331942
April 4, 2020214540251850
April 3, 20202092542251800
April 2, 20201841020201620
April 1, 2020174352091630
March 31, 202013982091280
March 30, 2020131202181210
March 29, 2020111221031070
March 28, 20208919103850
March 27, 2020705103660
March 26, 20206514102620
March 25, 2020517102480
March 24, 2020444102410
March 23, 20204010112370
March 22, 2020308002280
March 21, 20202210001210
March 20, 2020124001110
March 19, 20208000170
March 18, 20208500170
March 17, 20203100030
March 16, 20202000020
March 15, 20202000020
March 14, 20202000020
March 13, 20202000020
March 12, 20202000020
March 11, 20202000020
March 10, 20202000020
March 9, 20202100020
March 8, 20201000010
March 7, 20201000010
March 6, 20201000010
March 5, 20201000010
March 4, 20201000010
March 3, 20201000010
March 2, 20201000010
March 1, 20201000010
February 29, 20201000010
February 28, 20201100010

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Stock Market

MTN, CADBURY, UNILEVER record losses, ASI down by 0.15%

The market capitalization presently stands at N13.146 trillion.

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Nigerian stock market closed today on a bearish note. The All Share Index dropped by -0.15% to close at 25,199.84 basis points as against +0.38% appreciation recorded previously.

Its Year-to-Date (YTD) returns currently stands at -6.12%. The market capitalization presently stands at N13.146 trillion.

Nigerian bourse trading turnover closed positive as volume moved up by +86.96% as against +25.97% uptick recorded in the previous session. WAPIC, UNILEVER, and ZENITHBANK were the most active to boost market turnover.

WAPIC leads the list of active stocks that recorded an impressive volume spike at the end of today’s session.

Market breadth closed negative as CILEASING led 11 Gainers as against 23 Losers topped by NNFM at the end of today’s session – an unimproved performance when compared with the previous outlook.

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Top gainers

  • CILEASING up 10.00% to close at N4.4
  • FIDSON up  4.82% to close at N3.7
  • REDSTAREX up  2.74% to close at N3.75
  • AFRIPRUD N4.30.1 2.33% to close at N4.4
  • BUACEMENT up  0.78% to close at N38.9

Top losers

  • NNFM down 10.00% to close at N3.87
  • CAP down 5.03% to close at N17
  • CADBURY down 3.87% to close at N7.45
  • UNILEVER down 3.85% to close at N12.5
  • MTNN down 0.42% to close at N119

Outlook

Nigerian bourse closed its last trading session for the week on a bearish, despite improved market liquidity printed at today’s trading session. Narametrics envisages you seek the advice of a certified financial advisor, when buying stocks.

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Business

Sanwo-Olu speaks on need to resolve community’s agitations for tank farms relocation

Sanwo-Olu called stakeholders to come together in order to provide a lasting solution to the issue.

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Lagos introduces Dropbox facility for land documentation, China Development Bank, Sanwo-Olu sign $629m facility to complete Lekki Deep Seaport , Lagos State Government seeks partnership with insurance operators, Bond Issue: Lagos State Government to raise N100 billion for infrastructural development, Lagos State threatens to shut down Adron, Almond, 103 other estates for lacking approval

The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has listed conditions that must be met, in order to bring a lasting solution to the dispute between petroleum tank farm owners at Ijegun-Egba area of Amuwo Odofin and the residents of the host community.

One of these conditions is that tank farm owners and petroleum tanker drivers must subscribe to operational regulations that limit the loading of tankers beyond their weight capacities. Also, all Federal Government’s regulatory agencies operating in the area must stop working at cross purposes with the state’s agencies, in the bid to address the environmental degradation in the area.

The governor also stressed that both the federal and state authorities should collaborate on the regeneration efforts of road and infrastructure in the area.

This disclosure was made by the Lagos State Governor on Thursday, August 13, 2020, in Marina, while receiving members of the House of Representatives Ad-Hoc Committee on the Relocation of Tank Farms. The Committee, which was constituted by the Speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila, was also intended to investigate and make recommendations on the issue.

The Hon Sergius Ogun led Ad-Hoc Committee had initially gone on a two-day inspection to Ijegun before sharing the findings with the Governor.

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During the meeting, the governor pointed out that the regeneration of Ijegun-Egba was as important to the community as smooth transportation of petroleum products was important to the tank farms’ owners. He warned that the country could not afford to allow the host community’s agitation to hinder the operations of the tank farms, which, he said, supply 45% of petroleum products consumed in the country. The governor said:

“The Ijegun-Egba tank farms are strategic national assets created by the private sector to serve the whole country. Between 40 to 45% of the entire petroleum products that go across the country pass through that corridor. Even if it is to cater for our own need, we must take care of those assets, because they are like a strategic reserve for us as a nation.

“The rudiment of the problem in the area is a logistic issue, which is to ensure the movement of oil tankers in and out of the area without affecting the wellbeing of the community members. We have had to contend with environmental issues and the extent of the bad road network on the corridor is glaring. We have seen how small-capacity tankers are carrying up to 70,000 litres of petroleum products when they should be taking only 30,000 litres. This has exerted great pressure on the roads and the officers that are supposed to monitor them look away.

“These are part of the issues we need to resolve with the stakeholders. If we can let these people run their businesses within the confines of regulations, part of the solutions would have been achieved in the process. Also, there is a need for total regeneration of the roads in the area. We want the environment to be conducive for business, but we must do that in line with the safety of lives and property. We have talked with tank farms’ owners and we all need to come together. It is important for the Federal Government’s agencies to have an agreement and we are ready to play our own part.

The committee was set up following the agitations and demands by residents of Ijegun Egba Satellite Town for the immediate relocation of the tank farms in the residential area. This, according to the residents, would help to prevent further environmental degradation and loss of lives and property in the area.

The host community accused tank farm owners of disrupting the drainage system, damaging roads within the community, and even converting roads to parking lots for their tankers.

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The Governor stressed that genuine solution would be achieved if the entire network of infrastructure in the host community was cleaned up and regenerated. He, however, revealed that the new regeneration design that the state came up with could not take off because the federal authorities had not agreed with the plan.

Furthermore, Sanwo-Olu noted that it is high time for all the stakeholders to come together in order to provide a lasting solution to the issue.

After your thorough assessment of the situation, I hope you would be able to call all relevant stakeholders and agencies of Government together on the discussion table. We are committed to any effort that’ll bring a permanent solution. We know how much of investment we have in the area, but businesses have to be done under a safe and controlled environment. We want every stakeholder to play their roles,” he said.

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Making his own remark, the Chairman of the Ad-Hoc Committee, Hon Ogun, admitted the inability of the Federal authorities to work collaboratively with the Lagos State Government was part of the reasons the community’s agitation festered. He, however, promised that the House would prevail on the federal agencies to close ranks with stakeholders and bring about lasting solutions.

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