According to the recently released Economic Outlook for Nigeria, trade in 2011 grew Nigeria grew 47.9% higher than the 2010 figures. It also grew by 57% in 2010 when compared to the 2009 figures. This includes both exports and imports and with growth figures such as these, the ability of the economy to attract foreign investment is made stronger. But what interest me the most is the value of export vs import. I remember back then when the cry was trade deficits, that is imports being higher than exports. Well, it seems those days are over if the table below is correct
This surely shows exports mostly gaining higher than imports in the last couple of years. It is important to note though, that export is higher not as a result of an exponential all round growth in the non-oil export side of things but by higher oil price over the last couple of years.
If the growth was as a result of fluctuation in price and not as a result of increase in demand/supply, then it’s purely a result of the market. What this portends is that next year will be relatively lower, since oil prices cannot consistently ascend. Well, that to me is not the kind of growth we want in Nigeria.
The government has got to start thinking like China…
Well, fluctuation in price is always driven by demand and supply so I guess is the same thing. Its slow growth quite alright, but one that we don’t mind having considering the world marked turmoil. I am quite happy that we are beginning to consume more of what we produce than import which is a silver lining. Thanks for your comment
Well its not anything out of the ordinary really the ‘far cry’ you mentioned is one of the untruths of public commentary in Nigeria. If you extend your table backwards annually, you’ll see the last time we had a current account in the red was in 1998. Strange eh. Infact if you look closely we’ve had more positive years than negative ie more years exports exceeded imports. but its logical really no matter how much we import we still export quite a lot really else there’d be no money foreign exchange to finance the import splurge 🙂 but most times its populist to say imports exceed exports but then we know why we export more = oil. End of story