The latest report by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) put the total number of connected lines in Nigeria as at October 2011at 125.1m. Out of that, the total number of GSM connected lines is 110.3m a whopping 88% of all connected lines in Nigeria. CDMA comes next with 12.5m lines. To take it further, the number of active lines in Nigeria is about 93m with GSM coming tops at 88m or 93%, thus making it even worse for CDMA. If trends are anything to go by then you must feel worried for other providers. As at October 2010, the number of active GSM lines were 78.9m thus gaining over 10m new active subscribers in just one year. On the contrary, CDMA’s which were just over 6m in November 2010 are just about 5.1m as at October 2011.
Nigerians just love GSM isn’t it?? I have often wondered why people don’t like CDMA as much as they do GSM. After all CDMA’s networks have cheaper phones and their call rate even more affordable. I know GSM phones are actually more flexible as they have better sim card usability and gives you a lot more independence as a subscriber. But then, that is not enough for it to be so much more popular as to attract 95% of the market share since its cost is not so much balanced by its benefit. One would think the with the relative cheap rates, CDMA’s will be very popular amongst the poor and those in the rural areas. But there lies the problem. CDMA networks I believe haven’t done much to penetrate the vast hinterland of Nigeria. They had mostly restricted themselves to major cities in the country thereby loosing major grounds when GSM operators were busing building cell sites around the country.
The Unified Licensing introduced a couple of years back off-course didn’t make much impact for them as it was already too late. That’s why they rely heavily on the data business which I must mention is under fierce competition from Stand Alone Internet Service Providers as well as GSM providers too. Its really not difficult to figure out why people will keep using GSM even in the near future. GSM networks have a combined installed capacity of 141m out of the total installed capacity of 167m. So basically, the country is covered if we are to equate the total installed capacity to our population by GSM networks. Without a brash of impressive technology, I see the market share of other network providers shrinking to below 1% in no distant future, thus increasing the love for GSM and driving CDMA’s and Fixed Wireless networks into extinction.
