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Research Analysis

Eid-El-Kabir: Food prices surge, as ram traders decry low patronage

Major food items in Lagos state markets continue to endure persistent price increase.

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Eid-El-Kabir celebration is here again and Nigerians are ready to join their families and friends in the festivities. Every year, as Muslim faithfuls across the world celebrate Eid-El-Kabir, the acts of buying and slaughtering rams are sine qua nons of the celebration and a form of sacrifice to Allah (S.A.W).

Nairametrics Research visited major markets for a ‘Special’ household market survey and found that ram/cow prices have typically ramped up. Meanwhile, traders lamented low patronage and sales.

Also, major food items across main markets in Lagos State have continued to increase in price. Staples such as rice, beans, yam, garri, potatoes, and others, recorded significant jumps in prices when compared to figures obtained two weeks ago. As Nairametrics reported in the previous market surveys, prices of food items have been recording a significant increase since the COVID-19 induced lockdown disrupted major economic activities.

According to the latest survey, a big basket of oval-shaped tomatoes now sells for an average of N12,000, indicating a 20% increase compared to N10,000 recorded two weeks ago. Also, a big basket of sweet potatoes which previously sold at N8,000, jumped by as much as 81.3% to sell for an average of N14,500.

The report detailed items that recorded an increase in price, items that decreased in price, items that maintained initial prices, special market reports, and key insights.

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Items that witnessed price increase

Some of the items that recorded significant increases in price include:

  • A big bag of melon seeds (Egusi), which was sold for an average of N39,000, now costs an average of N42,000. This represents a 7.7% increase in price.
  • The price of a big bag of dry onions now goes for an average of N25,000 compared to an average of N17,000 recorded two weeks ago, thus indicating a 47.1% increase in price.
  • The price of a big bag of white garri within the last two weeks, increased by 18.4% from an initial average of N11,250 to sell for an average of N13,325.
  • A bag of yellow garri recorded a 3.1% increase in price as it currently sells for an average of N12,625 when compared to the N12,250 recorded two weeks ago.
  • A bag of 10kg Mama Gold rice increased by 6.3% to sell for an average of N4,250 compared to N4,000 recorded two weeks ago.
  • The price of a 50kg bag of rice spiked by 8.8% from N21.375 recorded two weeks ago to sell for an average of N23,250.
  • A big tuber of yam that was initially sold for an average of N838 now costs an average of N913. This represents a 9% increase in price.
  • A medium-sized tuber also increased by 24% to sell for an average of N775 as against N625 recorded a fortnight ago.
  • A big basket of oval-shaped tomatoes now sells for an average of N12,000 at Mile 12 market, an increase of 20% compared to N10,000 recorded two weeks ago.
  • A bag of yellow maize that was initially sold for an average of N17,250 now sells for an average of N19,667 indicating a 14% increase in price.
  • Also, a bag of white maize increased by 8.6% to sell for an average of N19,000 from the initial average price of N17,500.

Items that maintained initial price

  • A carton of 210g Indomie (Hungry man size) continues to sell for an average of N3,200.
  • A 305g size of Indomie sells for an average of N2,900.
  • 500g and 900g Milo tins still sell for an average of N1,038 and N2,075 respectively
  • The prices of Kote and Titus fish continue to go for N563 and 575 respectively.
  • 12.5kg of household cooking gas (refilled) continues to sell for an average of N3,375 while 5kg cylinder is still filled for an average of N1,400.
  • Bush mango seeds (Ogbono) still sell for N75,000 at Mile 12 market, same as recorded two weeks ago.
  • A 50kg bag of flour, Honeywell, Mama Gold and Dangote still sell for N11,200, N11,075 and N11,100 respectively.
  • A 500g packet of pasta (Golden Penny) continue to sell for an average of N4,300, while Dangote pasta sells for an average of N4,125.

Special Feature: Rams Markets

Traders in the market have complained of low sales turn-out, a situation that was caused by a hike in the prices of the commodity which comes directly from the Northern part of Nigeria. One ram seller at Kappa Market said:

“We have limited stock of ram this year compared to last year because there is no much money in the country. We are not expecting good profit this year because of low sales and high cost from the North. Some cows here are sold for N250,000, N500,000 and even N1 million depending on the size of the cow.”

He explained further to Nairametrics Research that some of the rams from the North are sold for an average of N180,000 compared to last year when the same size of ram was sold for N150,000 while some that were sold for N95,000 last year now sell for an average of N110,000.

A visit to Mangoro market revealed that low sales were anticipated by the traders, considering the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, leading to low stock of rams. However, Mr. Mustapha. who spoke to Nairametrics Research at Mangoro market, said that considering the economic situation in Nigeria, sales are not that bad, as some people have started buying cows and even rams in preparation for the Eid festivity.

“We currently have rams of different sizes, which vary in price. Some small sizes are sold for as low as N70,000 and as much as N150,000. Bigger sizes of rams sell for as low as N200,000 up to N450,000,” he explained.

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Low stock of Cows at Kappa market

Market Insights

Big bags of pepper, which were not available in the market two weeks ago are now being sold for an average of N7,500 each, compared to N15,000 recorded last month. The decrease in price was attributed to an influx of fresh peppers from the North. A medium-sized bag of peppers that was sold for an average of N10,000 two weeks ago now sells for an average of N4,500. This represents a 55% decrease in price.

Round-shaped tomatoes were sighted at Mile 12 market, having been unavailable in the market over the past months. A big basket of round-shaped tomatoes is currently sold within the range of N15,000 and N16,000.

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According to a tomatoes seller at Mile 12 Market, “We have three types of tomatoes. The most expensive is the Hausa round-shaped tomatoes, which sells for an average of N15,000, another type is the Yoruba round-shaped tomatoes, which sells for an average of N14,000 while the cheapest is the oval-shaped tomatoes generally regarded as Yoruba tomatoes, which sells between the range of N12,000 and N13,000.”

A big basket of sweet potatoes that was initially sold for an average of N8,000 two weeks ago has spiked by 81.3% to sell for an average of N14,500. Mr Yaya, a potatoes trader, told Nairametrics Research that the recent increase in price of sweet potatoes is due to increase in transportation costs.

The price of a big nylon of crayfish increased by 21.4% to sell for an average of N17,000 compared to N14,000 recorded two weeks ago. According to Mr. John who sells crayfish at Mile 12 market, “We are in the season where the price of crayfish is supposed to be cheap but unfortunately, the reverse is the case”. He, however, has no explanation as to why the price of the item keeps increasing at this time.

A rice seller at Oyingbo market told Nairametrics research that local rice is of two types: the stony ones, currently being sold for an average of N20,000 while the brand of rice with superior quality sells for an average of N25,000. However, he said that foreign rice currently sells for an average of N29,000 at the market.

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Below are the average prices of frozen food items measured in cartons:

Chicken lap – N12,500

Full Chicken – N12,500

Turkey – N14,200

ItemsBrandUnitMUSHIN (21/07/2020)DALEKO (21/07/2020)OYINGBO (21/07/2020)MILE 12 (21/07/2020)Average MUSHIN (2/07/2020)DALEKO (2/07/2020)OYINGBO (2/07/2020)MILE 12 (2/07/2020)Average
Bag of RiceBasmati5kgNANANANANANANANANANA
Bag of RiceMama Gold10kgNA4000450045004250NA4000NANA4000
Bag of RiceRoyal Stallion50Kg29000NA29000295002950028500NA280002900028500
Bag of RiceRice Master10kgNA4000NA40004000NA3500NA40003750
Bag of RiceMama Gold50kg22000225002500024000232502200021500210002100021375
Bag of RiceCaprice50kg28000NA29000285002850028000NA275002750027666.666666667
Bag of RiceMama's Pride50kg23000210002250023000220002150021000210002100021125
Bag of RiceFalcon25kgNANANANANANANANANANA
Bag of BeansOloyin50kg21000195002200022000207501300012500130001250012750
Bag of BeansWhite50kg30000290003000032000305002200020500210002100021125
Bag of BeansBrown>50kg32000295003500030000297502050019500215002100020625
Tuber of YamAbuja1 Big Size Tuber9009008501000912.5850800800900837.5
Tuber of YamAbuja1 Medium Size Tuber750800750800775650600600650625
Carton of NoodlesIndomie305g (Belle full)2900290029002900290029002900290029002900
Carton of NoodlesIndomie210g (Hungry man)3200320032003200320032003200320032003200
Carton of NoodlesChikki100g2000220021002100210020002200210021002100
Carton of NoodlesMinimie70g1600165017001650165016001650170016501650
Carton of NoodlesGolden Penny70g1400140014001400140014001400140014001400
Bag of GarriIjebu80kg13000135001500012000133751300013500130001400013375
Bag of GarriWhite50kg11000115001900011800133251100011500115001100011250
Bag of GarriYellow50kg12000125001400012000126251200012500120001250012250
Basket of PotatoSweetBig Basket145001450080008000
Basket of PotatoSweetSmall Basket700600600633.33333333333700600600633.33333333333
Basket of PotatosweetSmallest Basket200300200233.33333333333200200200200
Basket of PotatoIrishBiggest Basket28000280002000020000
Basket of PotatoIrishSmall Basket200025002250200020002000
Basket of PotatoIrishSmallest Basket1700150015001566.66666666671700150015001566.6666666667
Packet of PastaGolden Penny500g4300440043004200430043004400430042004300
Packet of PastaDangote500g4100410042004100412541004100420041004125
Packet of PastaPower (1 pc)500g220220220220220220220220220220
Packet of PastaBonita (1 pc)500g230200230220220230200230220220
Gallon of Palm OilLocal5 Litres2200210021002100212522002100210021002125
Gallon of Palm OilLocal25 Litres11000110001100011000110001100011000110001100011000
Gallon of Vegetable OilLocal5 Litres2400220023002200227524002200230022002275
Gallon of Vegetable OilLocal25 Litres13100130001350013500132751310013000133001300013100
Gallon of Vegetable OilKings5 Litres3000300030003000300030003000300030003000
Gallon of Vegetable OilWesson5 Litres3900390039003900390039003900390039003900
Gallon of Vegetable OilMamador3.8 Litres25002450250024002462.525002450250024002462.5
Gallon of Vegetable OilPower3 Litres1800180018001800180018001800180018001800
Bunch of PlaintainPlaintain1 Big Bunch500400450500462.5500400450500462.5
Bag of FlourDangote50kg11200112001100011000111001120011200110001100011100
Bag of FlourHoney well50Kg11200112001120011200112001120011200112001120011200
Bag of FlourMama Gold50kg11000113001100011000110751100011300110001100011075
MilkPeak Powdered (Tin)400g12501200120012001212.512501200120012001212.5
Milkpeak Powdered(Tin)900g2400240024002300237524002400240023002375
MilkPeak milk (Refill)500g10501000100010001012.510501000100010001012.5
MilkDano Powdered (Tin)500g1000100010001000100010001000100010001000
MilkDano Powdered(Tin)900g2000200020002000200020002000200020002000
MilkDano (Refill)500g850800800800812.5850800800800812.5
MilkThree Crown (Refill)380g720700750700717.5720700750700717.5
MilkLoya Powdered (Tin)400g10001000100010501012.510001000100010501012.5
MilkLoya (Refill)400g850800850800825850800850800825
MilkCoast (Refill)500g750750750750750750750750750750
Cocoa BeveragesMilo (Tin)500g10001100105010001037.510001100105010001037.5
Cocoa BeveragesMilo (Tin)900g2000210021002100207520002100210021002075
Cocoa BeveragesMilo Refill500g900900900900900900900900900900
Cocoa BeveragesBournvita Refill500g95010009509009509501000950900950
Cocoa BeveragesBournvita (Plastic)900g2000200020002000200020002000200020002000
Cocoa BeveragesOvaltine Refill500g800800850850825800800850850825
Cocoa BeveragesOvaltine(Plastic)500g1100110010001100107511001100100011001075
CoffeeNescafe Classic50g600600600600600600600600600600
TeaLipton Yellow label52g310290300300300310290300300300
TeaTop tea52g300300300300300300300300300300
SugarSt' Loius Sugar(Cube) 500g500550550550537.5500550550550537.5
SugarGolden Penny Sugar (cube)500g350350350400362.5350350350400362.5
BreadVal-U1 loaf500NA450NA475450NA450NA450
BreadButterfield1 loaf500450450500475450400450450437.5
EggN/ACrate1100120012001100115095090010001000962.5
Bottled Water (Refill)CwayRefill600600650600612.5600600650600612.5
Juice5 Alive1 litre600550550600575600550550600575
JuiceChivita1 litre600550600550575600550600550575
GasRefilling12.5kg3500300034003600337535003000340036003375
GasRefilling5kg1400140014001400140014001400140014001400
TomatoesBig Basketround shaped1500015000NANA
Medium Basketround shaped1000010000NANA
Small Basketround shaped60006000NANA
Big BasketOval Shaped12000120001000010000
Small BasketOval Shaped7500750065006500
FishKote (Horse Mackerel)1 big Fish550600550500550550600550500550
FishTitus (Mackerel)1 big Fish550550550600562.5550550550600562.5
PepperBig bag75007500NANA
Medium bag450045001000010000
MaizeYellow18000220001900019666.666666667180001650017250
White18000200001900019000180001700017500
MelonBig bag42000420003900039000
OnionsBig bagDry Onions25000250001700017000
OnionsBig bagNew OnionsNANANANA
Bush mango seed(Ogbono)1 big bag75000750007500075000
Frozen foodFull chickenCarton125001250012500
Frozen foodChicken lapCarton125001250012500
Frozen foodTurkeyCarton142001420014200
Crayfish17000170001400014000

About Nairametrics Food Price Survey

Nairametrics Food Price Watch is a bi-weekly household market survey that covers the prices of major food items, with emphasis on five major markets in Lagos – Mushin market, Daleko market, Oyingbo market, Idi-Oro market and Mile 12.

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Nairametrics Research team tracks, collates, maintains and manages a rich database of macro-economic and micro-economic data from Nigeria and Africa. Our analysts share some of the data collated on Nairametrics, using formats such as docs, tables and charts etc. The team also publishes research based analysis as articles on a regular basis.

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Nigeria’s top 10 agricultural exports hit N289.3 billion, as Sesamum seeds, Cocoa top list

Here is the breakdown of Nigeria’s top agricultural exports and top destination countries.

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Agricultural financing, Top AgriTech deals currently on sale in Nigeria – June 2020

Nigeria’s top 10 agricultural export is estimated to have earned the country about N289.3 billion in one year (April 2019 – March 2020). This is according to data collected from various foreign trade reports, as compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

A cursory look at the data showed that Sesamum seeds and Cocoa remain Nigeria’s biggest agricultural exports, with the two products jointly accounting for over 60% of the entire agricultural exports in the country.

READ MORE: UPDATED: Nigeria’s foreign trade drops to N8.3 trillion, down by 18% in Q1 2020

Number Breakdown: Top ten Agricultural Exports in Nigeria

By operational definition, the NBS defined agricultural products as goods that come from the planting of crops and/or raring of animals. Here is the breakdown of Nigeria’s top agricultural exports and top destination countries.

  • Sesamum seeds: Sesamum seeds, the tiny, oil-rich seeds, have been Nigeria’s agricultural export biggest earner for some years. During the period under review, Nigeria made the sum of N112.8 billion from the export of the products and this accounted for 38.9% of the top 10 agricultural products. Top destinations for the product include Japan, China, Turkey, India, and Vietnam.
  • Cocoa Beans: Cocoa (Fermented, superior quality raw cocoa) exports is Nigeria’s second largest agricultural export. During the period under review, cocoa export was estimated to be N109.6 billion, accounting for 37.8% of the top agricultural exports. The top destinations for the product are Germany, Netherlands, Spain. Indonesia, Belgium, Malaysia, and Estonia.
  • Cashew nuts (In shell and shelled): Cashew nuts are Nigeria’s 3rd biggest agricultural export product. In one year (March 2019 – March 2020), Nigeria generated a total sum of N38.2 billion from cashew nuts export. The top destinations are Vietnam, India, USA, Russia and the Netherlands.
  • Frozen shrimps and prawns: Ranking 4th on the list, Frozen shrimps and prawns accounted for 3.4% of the biggest export in Nigeria, estimated to be N9.85 billion in the last one year. According to the breakdown, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Vietnam, and the USA are top destinations for the export of the products.
  • Natural cocoa butter: Natural cocoa butter ranks as Nigeria’s 5th biggest agricultural export product within the period. Nigeria generated the sum of N7.69 billion as revenue proceed from the export of cocoa butter. Germany and Estonia are top destinations for the product
  • Sesame oil and its fractions: Sesame oil, an edible vegetable oil derived from sesame seeds, ranks 6th on the list with an estimated export value of N3.1 billion
  • Other agricultural products on the top 10 list include Cotton, Agro-food items, Other cut flowers & flower buds of kind suitable ornamental purposes and Ginger. During the period, a total sum of N2.53 billion was generated from Cotton export, Agro-food items (N1.97 billion), Cut flowers and flower buds (1.96 billion) and Ginger (N1.43 billion).

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s oil crisis compounded as India’s fuel demand crashes by 60% 

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Upshots: Nigeria’s Agric. export may experience the biggest contraction in 2020

As at the end of Q1 2020, Nigeria’s total foreign trade was estimated at N8.3 trillion, an 18% decline when compared to N10.12 trillion recorded in Q4 2019. The decline in foreign trade showed the earliest sign of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic that led to disruption in cross border trade.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s trade balance hits recession low, records N579 billion deficit in Q4 2019

Despite the gradual easing of lockdown in major economies, restrictions imposed on cross border movements still subsist and this may demand for the goods and commodity prices in the short to medium term.

On the flip side, Nigeria’s cocoa-industry association recently cut its output estimate for the 2020 main crop by 18%, citing the spread of the fungal black pod disease caused by heavy rains in the country’s main growing areas.

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FEATURED

Oil and Gas companies revenues plummet by over N84 billion in 3 months

Revenue losses span across oil and gas upstream and downstream at levels not seen in recent years.

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Oil and Gas companies revenues plummet by over N84 billion in 3 months, COVID-19, Coronavirus, access bank mourns staff

Revenues of some of the major oil and gas companies quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange fell by about 38% in the second quarter of 2020 wiping out a whopping N84.7 billion from their topline revenues.

This is according to data compiled from the recently released results of the listed companies in the oil and gas sector. They include Mobile Oil (II), Ardova, Total, & Seplat, the only major oil and gas firms that have released their Q2 financials. Oando and Conoil, are yet to release their results. The data was compiled by Nairametrics Research.

Total, Mobil, and Ardova are oil marketing companies while Seplat is into upstream oil and gas production. They are also some of the biggest oil companies listed on the exchange and in Nigeria.

READ MORE: Nigerian hotels count revenue losses due to pandemic-induced plunge

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The companies reported combined revenue of N135.6 billion in the second quarter of 2020 compared to N220.3 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Revenue in Q1 was N219 billion. The Nigerian economy, particularly the oil and gas sector has been hit hard by the oil price crash and the COVID-19 pandemic and could be a major reason for the loss in revenues.

The companies also recorded a combined loss before tax of N16.6 billion compared to N38 billion in pretax profits reported in the same period in 2019. The second-quarter losses compound an already bad situation for these companies after reporting a loss before tax of N28.7 billion in the first quarter of 2020. These companies have now seen a combined N45.4 billion wiped out of their profits.

READ MORE: What banks might do to avoid getting crushed by Oil & Gas Loans

Why the revenue drop?

A closer look at the data reveals most of the losses came from the oil marketing firms Total and Mobil. Over N56 billion of the revenue loss was between Mobil and Total. Seplat and Ardova lost just over N5 billion respectively.

A cursory review of their results suggests the companies suffered from a drop in demand for refined products such as fuel, diesel, and lubricants. Nigerians were mostly on lockdown throughout April and May before reopening partially in June and July. However, the damage had been done as adherence to safety procedures meant fewer people were commuting impacting heavily on sales.

Seplat was also hit by dipping crude oil prices and weak demand for its crude. Nairametrics reported back in April that oil prices at some point fell to negative territory as demanded waned globally.

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Despite the drops, the companies continued to incur overheads and operating expenses which they could not entirely avoid despite the lockdowns. Gross Margins for the quartet fell by 61% year on year putting the companies on the path to losses.

READ ALSO: Ethereum surges pass $345, ETH miners record highest revenue since Q3 2018

Implication on the wider economy

A review of some of the results already seen by Nairametrics indicates nearly all sectors recorded revenue losses. This is also likely the same situation across the country as Nigeria awaits the second-quarter GDP numbers sometime this month.

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Though oil and gas firms faced a twin dose of a fall in crude oil prices and the Covid-19 situation, all sectors except for oil and gas and Agriculture sectors recorded high revenue declines. The companies under review last reported a similar drop in revenues and loss before tax in 2016 when Nigeria entered a recession.

READ ALSO: Govt. rakes in N653 billion in June as exchange rate gain, taxes and oil sales boost revenues

The government is projecting a GDP contraction in excess of 3% and already reported a revenue shortfall of over 50% this year.

Fortunately, the companies still held a sizeable cash balance of N136.7 billion t the end of the quarter putting them in a position to weather the storm.

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Nigeria generates N327.2 billion VAT in Q2, as revenue plunges across critical sectors

The decline in VAT implies that uncertainty surrounds the effective implementation of the 2020 budget.

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Nigeria generates N327.2 billion VAT in Q2

Nigeria generated a total sum of N327.1 billion revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT) in the second quarter of 2020, up by 0.81% when compared to N324.58 billion in Q1 2020. This is contained in the latest VAT report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Despite VAT remittance growing by 0.81% in the second quarter, critical sectors in the Nigerian economy such as manufacturing, hotel catering, trading, transport, oil, and construction recorded significant declines in VAT remittances during the period. Overall, twenty-one (21) of the twenty-eight (28) sectors recorded declines in VAT remittances in Q2 2020, a significant decline which may be largely attributed to the COVID-19 induced lockdown across the country during the period.

READ ALSO: Value of shares traded by top 10 stockbrokers up 133% despite COVID-19

VAT by sectors: Breaking down the numbers

  • In Q2 2020, the biggest decline in VAT remittance was from hotel and catering service with a 45.5% drop in VAT remittance from N2.52 billion received in Q1 2020 to N1.36 billion at the end of Q2 2020.
  • Also, the manufacturing sector recorded a 19% decline in VAT remittance from N37.3 billion in Q1 2020 to N30.2 billion. Expectedly, VAT earning from oil marketing plugged 18.8%, while oil production dropped by 7.4%.
  • Other critical sectors that recorded declines in VAT earnings in Q2 2020 include Automobiles (-30%), Breweries (-27.3%), Construction (22.9%), Commercial and Trading (-19%), Agriculture and Plantation (-14.8%).

  • Meanwhile, despite significant decline across critical sectors, the increase in VAT was largely driven by pioneering. In Q2 2020, Nigeria received 643.7% boost in pioneer VAT remittances, from N868.8 million in Q1 to N6.46 billion in Q2 2020. This represents the biggest growth in VAT remittances across all sectors in the period.

Revenue challenge threatens 2020 budget implementation

The decline in Value Added Tax across some key sectors in the Nigerian economy implies that uncertainty still surrounds the effective implementation of the 2020 budget.

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READ ALSO: Top 10 Stockbrokers trade N391.9 billion in Q1 2020 despite bearish market

Recall that in the 2019 budget, Nigeria projected a total Value Added Tax revenue of N1.7 trillion as it anticipated higher tax revenues from vatable goods and services. Meanwhile, Value Added Tax collected during the year was N1, 188.85 (billions) compared to a budget of N1,703.89 billion, thereby representing a negative variance of N515 billion or 30%.

Again, in the recently approved 2020 revised budget, the FG once again estimated total Value Added Tax revenue of N2.03 trillion. However, in H1 2020, the total Value Added Tax generated by Nigerian is estimated at N651.7 billion, represents 32.1% of target met.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s records 6.1 percent tax to GDP as tax base for VAT rise to N23.7 trillion

COVID-19 pandemic has dealt the world economy a huge blow, characterized by travel restriction, supply chain disruption and weak oil prices. Nigeria on the other hand has not been spared by the economic downturn with revenue expected to decline further amid recession fears.

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