Follow Us on Google Discover
Nigerian Bonny Light last traded at N115 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate settled at $103 a barrel on supply-side concerns.
Higher world Brent prices and increased domestic production remain key drivers of Nigeria’s fiscal receipts and FX.
Tensions came as President Donald Trump had warned Washington could strike Iran again, citing Operation Epic Fury, which was launched in February.
US Ambassador to Turkiye Tom Barrack said separately that a strike could happen this weekend, but Trump said he did not know about any strikes.
Also Read
This month has seen the most strikes against commercial shipping security in the strait, with at least 28 vessels struck, according to the Washington Institute, which was reported by Reuters.
It documented 113 attacks since February, while the International Maritime Organization recorded 120 incidents. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said the agency was technically ready to restart nuclear verification in Iran but needed a negotiated deal.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key transit choke point for the Persian Gulf’s crude exports. The fight over the corridor and the threat of maritime security incidents have added a high geopolitical risk premium.
The Bonny Light crude from Nigeria tends to attract a premium to Brent in wider Middle Eastern supply shocks when the flow of Middle Eastern crudes is restricted due to its light/ sweet (low sulfur) nature and passage through the bypass pipeline,
Iran’s top UN envoy argued that the Islamic Republic had not given up on its nuclear safeguard commitments because of security fears when inspectors could return. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will be in Moscow next week for a summit of gas-exporting countries where he is due to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In another incident, Israel also announced harsh restrictions on the entire occupied West Bank after a shooting in which two Israeli soldiers were killed near Hebron. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised a large-scale military operation as Israeli forces carried out raids and demolitions.
Nigerian fundamentals in the oil industry brighten
Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate output averaged 1.7 mbpd in August 2026 (up from~1.53 mbpd earlier in the year). Crude theft and tapping are easing amid improved
security around the Nembe Creek and Trans-Niger Pipeline corridors. Nigerian crude and condensate reserves are 37 billion barrels (according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC).
Nigeria’s available export volume will tighten until crude production bounces toward the 2 million barrels per day mark as more Nigerian crude goes to domestic refining. Local refining capacity increased with the Nigerian shutdowns (targeting ~1.5 mbpd among state and private refineries, including Dangote). Nigeria is offloading more light-sweet Nigerian grades like Bonny Light, Qua Iboe, and Forcados to the refinery complex and to other domestic refining companies over exports to Europe and Asia
Dated Brent advanced to over $110-$114 per barrel in the face of ongoing major Middle Eastern regional conflicts, supply disruptions, and freight-transport cost pressures.
OPEC+ strictly controls production volumes, putting downward pressure on spot crude supplies across all sweet and heavy sour crude grades.
Longer-term growth will depend on additional upstream investment in marginal fields, infrastructure protection, and capital to turn discovered resources into production.
