A report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) has revealed that sub-Saharan Africa’s labor force may increase by 14 million in 2024.
The ILO report indicates that population growth continues to shape Sub-Saharan Africa’s labor force.
The previous year 2023 was characterized by a 3.3% growth in the labor force size equivalent to an additional 53 million working-age individuals compared to 2019. Despite the marginal decrease from the 2010-2019 average of 68%, the labor force participation rate maintained around 67% in 2023, remaining consistent with the pre-pandemic level of 2019.
In projecting the estimate for 2024, the report takes account of unemployment and underemployment figures in the past year and previous years.
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Unemployment is slightly elevated
Unemployment has remained slightly elevated throughout the pandemic, with youth facing a higher risk.
The average unemployment rate, estimated at 5.8% in 2023, has seen a marginal decrease from 5.9% in 2019, affecting a total of 27 million people. Youth unemployment stands at 8.9%, impacting 9.4 million individuals. With a growing working-age population, young people are susceptible to disillusionment and detachment from the labor market due to challenges in securing decent and productive work upon entry.
In 2023, around 62 million young individuals were Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET), constituting 25.9% of the youth population, up from 22.2% in 2013.
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Underemployment: Need for decent and more productive jobs
Employment is aligning with the expanding labor force, yet the nature of jobs may not be experiencing enhancements.
In 2023, total hours worked increased by 3.4%, surpassing the 2.8% growth recorded in 2019. Job creation is in sync with the expanding labor force. Mean hours worked per employed person remain consistent with pre-pandemic levels, standing at 38.2 hours per week for both 2023 and 2019. The subregion’s low average hours, particularly in many low or middle-income countries, suggest a likelihood of underemployment. This underscores the necessity for newly created jobs to be both decent and productive.
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Decent work deficits remain
The report further highlights that not all employed individuals hold decent and productive jobs, with substantial deficits in decent work prevalent in the subregion.
It states that informal employment constituted 86.5% of total employment in 2023, nearly the same as a decade earlier (87.2% in 2013). In 2023, almost 60% of individuals were employed but resided in households below the “moderately poor” international poverty threshold of US$3.65 per person per day in PPP terms (a decrease from 63.8% in 2013). These challenges persist widely, particularly in rural areas.
Comparing the figures as of 2022, it indicates that approximately 75.5% of the employed population were own-account workers or contributing family workers – employment statuses that typically entail more precarious conditions, less job security, and irregular income compared to more stable employee status. The combined share of own-account work and contributing family work has shown minimal change over the past decade, maintaining at 76.1% in 2012.