The National Bureau of Statistics has published its revised data of capital importation into Nigeria for the second quarter of 2016. The NBS in the last publication, reported that it excluded figures for June 2016 thus understating the data previously published.
The New data now reveals a total capital importation of about $1 billion for the second quarter of 2016, representing a 46.5% increase from the first quarter of 2016 but 61% lower than the same period in 2016.
Key Highlights of Revision
- The total value of capital imported into Nigeria in the second quarter of 2016 was estimated to be $1,042.17 million, which represents an increase of 46.58% relative to the first quarter, and a fall of 60.91% relative to the second quarter of 2015.
- This contrasts with the preliminary estimate for Q2 2016 of ($647.1mn) which was based on the first two months of the quarter, which indicated a quarter on quarter on decrease of 8.98%. However, a sharp increase in June outweighed the low values recorded in April ($305.82mn ) and May ($125.58mn). We had estimated June at $215.7bn. The actual level of capital imported in June ($610.77mn) was however the highest monthly value in 2016 so far.
- Further analysis reveals that the sharp rise in June in particular and Q2 2016 over Q1 2016 in general was due to a 115.12% quarter on quarter and 239.48% year on year rise in loans predominantly to the oil and gas (862.02% quarter on quarter rise and 4,023.25% rise year on year) and telecoms sectors (783.25% quarter on quarter and 14.22% rise year on year).
- The increase in capital importation in the second quarter was despite low levels of capital importation in both April and May, of $305.82 million and $125.58 million respectively. In May the value of capital imported was the lowest since August 2009. However, in June the value rose to $610.77 million, more than the previous three months combined due to a surge in loans as aforementioned.
- Portfolio and FDI recorded increases of 24.45% and 5.64% respectively. In each case this was as a consequence of large monthly increases in June, following disappointing values in April and May. The composition of total capital importation also changed: the larger quarterly increase in Other investment resulted in this investment type accounting for 49.95% of imported capital, roughly half.
- FDI remained the smallest component and accounted for 17.68%, and Portfolio accounted for 32.37%. Despite the quarterly increases, FDI and Portfolio investment recorded year on year decreases, of 12.71% and 84.55% respectively